Power Rankings

Started by SouthOfThe Bann, March 25, 2024, 02:55:09 PM

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Never beat the deeler

Quote from: armaghniac on June 18, 2024, 05:01:24 PMLaoisman11's ranking on Boardsie
Basically you have Dublin and Kerry and Armagh, Galway, Mayo and Donegal much the same and Tyrone not far behind. One of Dublin or Kerry will likely win out, but one could fall to one of the next five if they met. In this system Galway are expected to beat Monaghan and won't go up much for doing so, Mayo might go up a bit if they beat Derry. However, the QFs would see changes in the positions.



this appears to overvalue div2 results, consequently overstating Armagh's position
Hasta la victoria siempre

imtommygunn

Looking at it from an antrim perspective while for us we're doing well there is no reason we should be above Sligo as they finished higher in league and in TC group. Then Clare, Meath and Westmeath you would question why we're above too.

Not sure how these rankings were concocted.

Armagh18

Quote from: imtommygunn on June 20, 2024, 09:43:15 AMLooking at it from an antrim perspective while for us we're doing well there is no reason we should be above Sligo as they finished higher in league and in TC group. Then Clare, Meath and Westmeath you would question why we're above too.

Not sure how these rankings were concocted.
Think you get a small score for beating a side below you- the further below you the less credit you get and the further below a team you are the more points you get if you beat them. All them fecking penalty shootouts are down as draws for the purpose of this so don't think they counted against us.  It's not perfect way to rank teams obviously but thats the data behind it.

imtommygunn

Explains it thanks. I wish we were 15th but I'd have us a few more places down and our opposition on Sunday a bit closer to us.

armaghniac

#94
Quote from: Never beat the deeler on June 20, 2024, 09:39:20 AMthis appears to overvalue div2 results, consequently overstating Armagh's position

No, as the previous post said you get little or nothing for beating a team below you. Armagh got nothing for most of their games in Div 2, as Armagh came into the ranking pretty high and Meath, Fermanagh etc were far lower. In the group stages,  Armagh played Derry who were fairly similar then and a big margin of victory sent Armagh up and Derry down. Earlier in the championship Donegal also had a big boost by beating Derry, while Armagh got nothing for beating Fermanagh. Donegal are lower than Armagh now because they were beaten by Cork. 

No system is perfect and in this system a one point victory can have an excessive effect and progression on penalties can mean that the progressing team ends up lower, e.g. Monaghan progressed last year and got beat in the semi final, they only got a small bonus from the draw (as Armagh were higher then) and a bigger drop from the defeat.
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Cunny Funt

Quote from: armaghniac on June 18, 2024, 05:01:24 PMLaoisman11's ranking on Boardsie
Basically you have Dublin and Kerry and Armagh, Galway, Mayo and Donegal much the same and Tyrone not far behind. One of Dublin or Kerry will likely win out, but one could fall to one of the next five if they met. In this system Galway are expected to beat Monaghan and won't go up much for doing so, Mayo might go up a bit if they beat Derry. However, the QFs would see changes in the positions.



Shamrock Shore was right, Longford are rock Bottom.

armaghniac

Quote from: Cunny Funt on June 20, 2024, 01:40:05 PMShamrock Shore was right, Longford are rock Bottom.

In fairness, the score for New York isn't really comparable with the rest!
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Blowitupref

Quote from: armaghniac on June 20, 2024, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Cunny Funt on June 20, 2024, 01:40:05 PMShamrock Shore was right, Longford are rock Bottom.

In fairness, the score for New York isn't really comparable with the rest!

New York were close to beating Laois, probably would have beaten Longford seeing that they lost to Waterford by a bit to spare.
Is the ref going to finally blow his whistle?... No, he's going to blow his nose

armaghniac

Quote from: Blowitupref on June 20, 2024, 03:18:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 20, 2024, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Cunny Funt on June 20, 2024, 01:40:05 PMShamrock Shore was right, Longford are rock Bottom.

In fairness, the score for New York isn't really comparable with the rest!

New York were close to beating Laois, probably would have beaten Longford seeing that they lost to Waterford by a bit to spare.

Longford being beaten by Waterford was a bad plan, as Waterford were lower than everyone and so they swapped places.
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Never beat the deeler

#99
Quote from: armaghniac on June 20, 2024, 10:32:50 AM
Quote from: Never beat the deeler on June 20, 2024, 09:39:20 AMthis appears to overvalue div2 results, consequently overstating Armagh's position

No, as the previous post said you get little or nothing for beating a team below you. Armagh got nothing for most of their games in Div 2, as Armagh came into the ranking pretty high and Meath, Fermanagh etc were far lower. In the group stages,  Armagh played Derry who were fairly similar then and a big margin of victory sent Armagh up and Derry down. Earlier in the championship Donegal also had a big boost by beating Derry, while Armagh got nothing for beating Fermanagh. Donegal are lower than Armagh now because they were beaten by Cork. 

No system is perfect and in this system a one point victory can have an excessive effect and progression on penalties can mean that the progressing team ends up lower, e.g. Monaghan progressed last year and got beat in the semi final, they only got a small bonus from the draw (as Armagh were higher then) and a bigger drop from the defeat.

Thanks for the explanation, I think that makes sense. So wins over Galway last year and Derry this year partly responsible for where Armagh are as by deinition they can't get much for the D2 wins (and didnt beat either of Cork or Donegal) and all other wins in the last couple of years seem to be per 'expected' results based on table position.

Not having a go at Armagh btw, just the position that seemed most glaring at a quick glance
Hasta la victoria siempre

armaghniac

Quote from: Never beat the deeler on June 21, 2024, 01:48:52 AMThanks for the explanation, I think that makes sense. So wins over Galway last year and Derry this year partly responsible for where Armagh are as by deinition they can't get much for the D2 wins (and didnt beat either of Cork or Donegal) and all other wins in the last couple of years seem to be per 'expected' results based on table position.

Not having a go at Armagh btw, just the position that seemed most glaring at a quick glance

Armagh had a good position after the championship last year because they beat Galway and were not beaten afterwards. So although there were in Div 2 there were higher than that in the table. From that higher position the only way they could go in Div  2 was down, but they only lost the Div 2 final to Donegal, who by that stage were fairly close in ranking. So they were still in something like 6th place this year and beating Derry moved them up.
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armaghniac

Laoisman11 on Boards.ie plotted the rankings over the years of Galway and Armagh, which have actually been fairly similar.



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