6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

It will be a sad inditement of this place if Nichola Mallon loses her seat

Why?

You blaming the voters?

I think she was a good worker , yes I suppose I would find it odd to see why she would be voted out in the same way Id argue in favour of robin swann

[Kidder81]

Is there a case for a border poll never being won given that SF seem to have hit their ceiling and the middle ground is where the gains are to be had.

Hard to see where the extra yes votes come from to get over the 50%.

I'd say plenty of the Alliance voters would vote for unity if push comes to shove. Haven't seen anything official consensus seemed to be that a lost of Alliance transfers would go Green. Whats not talked about as well is the amount of people who don't vote at all who will come out for a border poll.

https://fortnightmagazine.org/articles/should-we-believe-the-opinion-polls-on-unification/

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

I've always considered Alliance unionist and it baffles me tbh how lads on here would attack the stoops as they call them before alliance .

Probably because Alliance are a decent party with policies other than attacking SF.

What are those policies , I'm not sure of them tbh, sitting on the fence happy with status quo, ie happy with the Union

[Armamike]

I'm not in her constituency but she seems a very capable individual. A huge blow for the SDLP if she loses out.

[trueblue1234]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

Realistically the loyalists did f**k all during the troubles without British weapons, intelligence and a police force that either openly helped or turned a blind eye. Would they get that again?

That is a fair point - could they operate without that?

But if they have a sizeable support base (5-10% NoI population would be enough) then after the initial riots settle, they'd likely be able to cause ongoing sporadic trouble (which would still be fatal for those on the end of it obviously).

They already have the weapons. They're now well set up as drug dealing thugs so would know were to procure more ammo.


*how much money toward "community groups" ends up in the hands of paramilitaries? I'd be confident its a pretty significant amount.

The problem is that violent 1%  will be there regardless. They are the ones that will never be swayed. So if it's 70-30 pro UI. Do you still hold off due to the 1%. 80-20? Where do you say, right, the will of the people shouldn't be stopped due to an unlawful 1%.

* I don't think there should be one anytime since btw.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Everyone on here knows I'm no fan of SF but honestly I don't rate Hargey at all

[Armamike]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

A lot of the focus in any discussion of a UI is on what will happen up here.  The elephant in the room is the south!  Would there be enough people in the south in favour.

[Armagh18]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

Realistically the loyalists did f**k all during the troubles without British weapons, intelligence and a police force that either openly helped or turned a blind eye. Would they get that again?

That is a fair point - could they operate without that?

But if they have a sizeable support base (5-10% NoI population would be enough) then after the initial riots settle, they'd likely be able to cause ongoing sporadic trouble (which would still be fatal for those on the end of it obviously).

They already have the weapons. They're now well set up as drug dealing thugs so would know were to procure more ammo.


*how much money toward "community groups" ends up in the hands of paramilitaries? I'd be confident its a pretty significant amount.

The problem is that violent 1%  will be there regardless. They are the ones that will never be swayed. So if it's 70-30 pro UI. Do you still hold off due to the 1%. 80-20? Where do you say, right, the will of the people shouldn't be stopped due to an unlawful 1%.

* I don't think there should be one anytime since btw.

f**k them. To be perfectly honest I wouldn't give them a second thought.

[Armagh18]

Everyone on here knows I'm no fan of SF but honestly I don't rate Hargey at all

Shocker there! 

[Itchy]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.

There wont unless the political economy is fixed

What economy lol, doesn't matter up here, we don't have one

Nobody in the South will vote for unification if NI remains an economic basket case

ok

Thankfully old Seafood, although a self elected expert in everything, does not speak for everyone in the south. Me and everyone of my family would vote for a unified Ireland no matter what state the North was in. But of course Seafood is getting his information laughably from the Sunday Indo which is Irelands most mostest West Brit paper.
A poll in Dec 2021 showed a large majority in the south would vote for a united ireland in the South. So don't mind old Seafood, he's obviously struggling to come to terms with the reality of what's happening in the 6 counties.

[Itchy]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

A lot of the focus in any discussion of a UI is on what will happen up here.  The elephant in the room is the south!  Would there be enough people in the south in favour.

Of course there is. Put it this way, which party in South would actively canvas against it? Not even FG would.

[Milltown Row2]

Yeah seafoid actually thought Newtownards was full of money! It's actually a shithole

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Everyone on here knows I'm no fan of SF but honestly I don't rate Hargey at all

Shocker there! 

Lol. Curve ball

[Rossfan]

Not a great day TBH.

Further polarisation and we're constantly moving further away from a UI with any kind of super-majority consensus.


Things keep going as they are and the Shinners will try and ram a border poll in first chance they get - without much thought as to what happens if it did go through 51/49.

How do we know they aren't thinking of what happens after? 'Cos they sure as f**k aren't laying any ground work right now.


[Now, to be fair, the unionist parties can't face that future and are sticking their heads in the ground with respect to the inevitable. Which doesn't help, but Sinn Fein's building of an economic case for a UI - to the public BOTH sides of the border - is utterly non existent.]

Then there is a UI as laid out in the GFA...

Not unless we in the 26 vote for it too.
Takes 2 to have a wedding.

To save me the trouble of going through Constituencies - has anyone the total 1st Prefs for Nationalist (SF, SDLP, Aontú, PBP) and Unionist (DUP  UUP, TUV, Easton, Sugden)

[The Subbie]

It will be a sad inditement of this place if Nichola Mallon loses her seat

Why?

You blaming the voters?

What's her top 5 achievements during her tenure?

I think she was a good worker , yes I suppose I would find it odd to see why she would be voted out in the same way Id argue in favour of robin swann