6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Snapchap]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

Would you not say, as others have said, the conditions here were fertile again. First nationalist FM in touching distance ?

Possibly the case. No doubt it was a factor but the campaign in 2017 was much more exciting/eventful/heated and literally nobody (even with the FM debate in the background) predicted anything other than losses for SF on the back of what was seen as a freakishly strong 2017 result. They still might not return with 27 but there's a real chance now that they could return with at least 27.

[Armagh18]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

Would you not say, as others have said, the conditions here were fertile again. First nationalist FM in touching distance ?

Possibly the case. No doubt it was a factor but the campaign in 2017 was much more exciting/eventful/heated and literally nobody (even with the FM debate in the background) predicted anything other than losses for SF on the back of what was seen as a freakishly strong 2017 result. They still might not return with 27 but there's a real chance now that they could return with at least 27.

Said it all along we'll be going really well to hold 3 in Newry and Armagh given Malone is a near cert imo! Rumours that he'll take McNulty's seat rather than a Shinner though

[Walter Cronc]

I'm no fan of Eastwood but what part of his SF bashing is wrong. Yes the bullets have stopped but wtf have SF done to improve things for nationalists in the North. Plenty of our towns are worse than they've ever been with investment n job. At local level they are in cahoots with the DUP where one relies on the other. This year I decided to vote Green. Sick of the status quo.

[marty34]

Interesting. Dolores Kelly is toast on these figures, Doug Beattie could struggle to hold his seat. Sinn Fein vote management could have been better. Diane Dodds also potentially struggling.

Tallies from one party (not the UUP) for Upper Bann:
O'Dowd, SF 17.1%
Buckley, DUP 14.7%
Tennyson, AP 14.7%
Mackle, SF 11.1%
Dodds, DUP 10.5%
Beattie, UUP 10.1%
Foster, TUV 7.1%
Barr, UUP 6.8%
Kelly, SDLP 5.8%

Kelly is gone, Beattie will do OK when his UU colleague is eliminated. Dodds is on a sticky wicket, but it depends how the TUV transfers go.

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

A lot of Shinners would rather a unionist gets in than a SDLP person. Had the original formula in the GFA for First Minister been used rather than the biggest party thing then they might be more interested in promoting nationalism.

Don't agree with this at all.  More SDLP fake victimhood

I am not happy about their demise - and said only earlier today that for the good of nationalism, the SDLP could do with being stronger.

However, they need to own this

They have some good operators, but their leader is a weak as dish water, one trick pony

I would enjoy a good laugh at being lectured by someone from the SDLP about promoting nationalism - when their entire political careers seem to be devoted solely to attacking the largest nationalist party

1. They need to stand for something - having FF, FG and Labour up canvassing for them sends what sort of message? A mixed up message. Their daliances with political parties in the 26 counties the same.

2. Eastwood - Getting Brexit done, full of himself. Going to Armagh for the birthday party.

3. No difference between then and Alliance.

[marty34]

Literally EVERY prediction I seen for the past few weeks said SF would lose in the region of 2-4 seats. In actual fact, their vote appears to have grown. BBC suggesting the could keep all their seats, with some muttering that they could even gain one or two. To keep 27 seats would be remarkable. To gain even one more? That would be absolutely astonishing.

I agree but story will be the Alliance 'surge'.

SF played a very savvy campaign. Didn't rock the boat or do anything like a 'crocodile moment'.

In fairness, their vote management is first class.

[Franko]

I'm no fan of Eastwood but what part of his SF bashing is wrong. Yes the bullets have stopped but wtf have SF done to improve things for nationalists in the North. Plenty of our towns are worse than they've ever been with investment n job. At local level they are in cahoots with the DUP where one relies on the other. This year I decided to vote Green. Sick of the status quo.

You couldn't have made a better case for the weakness of Eastwood's SDLP.

You - as a nationalist who is very unhappy with SF - decided to vote for the Greens

Rightly or wrongly - the impression that I get from the SDLP is that they have nothing to offer except to look at what SF are doing and shout about how bad it is.

You said it yourself, that a lot of the woes of this place could be laid at the door of the SF/DUP duopoly - and there is truth in that IMO

But Eastwood directs most (if not all) of his ire towards SF


Then, in the ultimate irony alert,  it is suggested that we shouldn't mention this, as we should be promoting nationalism 

[johnnycool]

Literally EVERY prediction I seen for the past few weeks said SF would lose in the region of 2-4 seats. In actual fact, their vote appears to have grown. BBC suggesting the could keep all their seats, with some muttering that they could even gain one or two. To keep 27 seats would be remarkable. To gain even one more? That would be absolutely astonishing.

I agree but story will be the Alliance 'surge'.

SF played a very savvy campaign. Didn't rock the boat or do anything like a 'crocodile moment'.

In fairness, their vote management is first class.

Question on STV.

After the first preferences are counted and someone gets over the quota, are the excess votes (in theory) then shared out between those second on those ballots as a proportion of their total votes?

E.g.

Donaldson gets 12k first preference votes, quota is 7K so he's 5K of transfers.

Of his 12K first preferences 80% go to Givan, would that mean 4K votes go to Givan??

Or is there something else at play?

[armaghniac]

Literally EVERY prediction I seen for the past few weeks said SF would lose in the region of 2-4 seats. In actual fact, their vote appears to have grown. BBC suggesting the could keep all their seats, with some muttering that they could even gain one or two. To keep 27 seats would be remarkable. To gain even one more? That would be absolutely astonishing.

I agree but story will be the Alliance 'surge'.

SF played a very savvy campaign. Didn't rock the boat or do anything like a 'crocodile moment'.

In fairness, their vote management is first class.

Question on STV.

After the first preferences are counted and someone gets over the quota, are the excess votes (in theory) then shared out between those second on those ballots as a proportion of their total votes?

E.g.

Donaldson gets 12k first preference votes, quota is 7K so he's 5K of transfers.

Of his 12K first preferences 80% go to Givan, would that mean 4K votes go to Givan??

Or is there something else at play?

In the North they count all of the second votes and allocate 5/12 of them as transfers.
In the South they sample 5/12 of the votes and allocate these as transfers (which is potentially less accurate).

[pbat]

There is talk that if the DUP and SF were to finish level Alex Easton would realign with the DUP to get them over the line.

Would Gavin Malone do like wise for SF if it was required?

[Armagh18]

Sf win 2 in NB. How many had they before?

[LeoMc]

Literally EVERY prediction I seen for the past few weeks said SF would lose in the region of 2-4 seats. In actual fact, their vote appears to have grown. BBC suggesting the could keep all their seats, with some muttering that they could even gain one or two. To keep 27 seats would be remarkable. To gain even one more? That would be absolutely astonishing.

I agree but story will be the Alliance 'surge'.

SF played a very savvy campaign. Didn't rock the boat or do anything like a 'crocodile moment'.

In fairness, their vote management is first class.

Question on STV.

After the first preferences are counted and someone gets over the quota, are the excess votes (in theory) then shared out between those second on those ballots as a proportion of their total votes?

E.g.

Donaldson gets 12k first preference votes, quota is 7K so he's 5K of transfers.

Of his 12K first preferences 80% go to Givan, would that mean 4K votes go to Givan??

Or is there something else at play?

That is it in a nutshell.
When someone gets over the line their excess is allocated in the same ratio as their next preference votes. If that puts someone else over the line they do the same again. If no one gets over the line they eliminate the lowest place candidates remaining.

[Rossfan]

In the 26 if someone gets over the quota on 1st count  all their 2nd prefs  are distributed and percentages are allocated to the various candidates.
However if you exceed the quota in other Counts they just take the surplus off the top of the bundle and distribute them.
That's why recounts are called if someone loses out by a small number.
6 Co system is more accurate.

[seafoid]

"The people have spoken, the bastards "

[Armagh18]

2/3 so far, Boylann and Murphy no real surprise there

[Eire90]

is mcrossan in danger in west tyrone