A United Ireland - The Nationalist Paradox

[Evil Genius]

Anyhow, I'm taking a break now.

I might be tempted to come back sometime soon, but probably only if someone actually addresses head-on the Paradox which I've posited - sometime in another 100 years would be nice 

(The rest of the usual stuff should be redirected to the assorted other "Themmuns and Whataboutery" threads elsewhere)

[Eamonnca1]

Another thing about opinion polls - you acknowledge that the result can depend on the wording of the question. The Belfast Telegraph has done plenty of push-polling in its time. I remember them asking "would you support a UI if it meant your tax bill going up?" but conveniently neglected to say what any supposed tax hike would be used to fund. They have ballot measures here in California where voters get to choose on specific taxes, but they're always accompanied by the information about what the funds are going to be used for along with arguments for and against.

Polls like those put out by the Tele are engineered to produce a pro-union result, and are best taken with a pinch of salt.

[Eamonnca1]

Anyhow, I'm taking a break now.

I might be tempted to come back sometime soon, but probably only if someone actually addresses head-on the Paradox which I've posited - sometime in another 100 years would be nice 

(The rest of the usual stuff should be redirected to the assorted other "Themmuns and Whataboutery" threads elsewhere)

See point 6 in my previous post. I'd be happy to talk about it some more.

[Eamonnca1]

Things that may undermine the nationalist sense of urgency for reunification:

• Continued peace (we kinda have it, but it seems to be fraying coz Brexit. Thanks, DUP!)
• An improved economic outlook in the north (Things are getting better, but NI remains a begging-bowl state)
• The Irish identity given the respect it's due (we have it in theory in some places)

Things that bolster the nationalist sense of urgency for reunification:

• The Nolan/Allister show
• The annual marching season
• Unionist hostility to every attempt to express Irish culture, no matter how small
• Unionist reluctance to respect the outcome of elections where nationalists win
• Unionism's knee-jerk and spiteful reaction of rejecting everything nationalism asks for, even when it would benefit everyone (A5 dual carriageway, location of Ulster University facilities in Derry, replacing the worn out Coleraine-Derry railway track, etc.)
• The inability of the state's institutions to reflect the Irish identity (Blanket BBC coverage of Irish League soccer matches attended by two men and a dog, while ignoring or under-reporting far bigger crowds at GAA club matches, to say nothing of the massive crowds at inter-county matches)

So yes, there is a paradox that if nationalists make the NI state work better, it might undermine their own cause, but unionism is plenty good enough at undermining its own cause and reminding nationalists that the NI state was founded as a comfort zone for bigots, and it continues to serve this function with indecent efficiency.

[trailer]

If you're hanging the strength of the Union on Nats not mobilising then that's a thin thread on which to hope the precious union holds. The conversation is only starting but I would like to think that once people hear the argument for better prosperity, jobs, openness and far greater standard of living, then sufficient numbers will be convinced. Only a fool hopes that the when the numbers of Catholics > Protestants that equals a UI. Lots of sensible Nationalists totally understand that people need to be convinced despite the nonsense some post here.
I understand that England, Scotland and Wales have no vote, but if you think that what occurs in other countries doesn't effect the political and constitutional situation here then you haven't been paying attention.

How many times?

I am relying on the Unionist vote holding up, not the Nationalist vote weakening.

But now you mention it, since the only way the Nationalist vote will hold up is if Nationalist politicians bang their drum loudly enough, then conversely that will only have the effect of strengthening the Unionist vote.

While if they "play nice" with the Unionists, then the overall temperature will drop and at least some Nationalists will be happy to keep the status quo.

It's that blasted Paradox again! 

The direction of travel is towards a UI.

Nationalists have been telling us that for 100 years.

The conversation is starting.

If by "conversation" you mean Nationalists talking amongst themselves about how to get it done - and for 100 years at that - then I suppose you're right.

But such a "conversation" hasn't got you any closer to where you want to go. In fact, since the GFA, it has only got further away, since that has taken the decision out of the hands of Dublin, London, Brussels, Washington and all the rest, and left it squarely in the hands of a majority in NI.

And you no closer to achieving such a majority than you've been at any time in the last quarter century.

You even started a whole thread asking about how it can be won.

No, I started a thread arguing why it is losing.

(The clue was in the title, btw)

I love the way you keep saying "How many times" as if you have some sort of super answer. It's typical a little of Unionism at the moment. You appear to think it's an impossible dream. A complete burying your heads in the sand exercise.

Nationalists have only begun talking about a UI. Brexit has been a huge game changer. In 50 years when people look back and look for triggers that brought about the UI that will be a key one.

The argument isn't being lost, we haven't even made it yet.

Another thought, in most recent times when there was a hard choice to make, The EU and The UK government choose an all Ireland solution. They side-lined unionists. Unless unionists start to engage they'll be side-lined again and they be left moaning about some political solution that they didn't want.

[weareros]

Worth noting the Tory’s have their own pollster, Lord Ashcroft.

The last time he did a poll on unity, it was in his words on a knife-edge.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

[balladmaker]

Worth noting the Tory’s have their own pollster, Lord Ashcroft.

The last time he did a poll on unity, it was in his words on a knife-edge.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

Well that survey shows that there's only one direction of travel for the demographics, and that's Irish reunification.  We all knew that but still nice to see it graphically all the same.  Unionism needs a leader to come out of somewhere to forge a new British identity, away from the unionist branding, for those who wish to reside in a reunified Ireland and remain British ... works ok for every other nationality on earth, why not work for NI unionists who seem to have a need to remain in the UK to feel British ... weird.

[general_lee]

I wonder who'll be up first to tackle that 

Always a good sign when Unionists go to such lengths to tell us how unlikely reunification is! Despite a compelling argument, the post can’t be properly addressed until the 2021 census results are published and after the next election.

How will the 2021 Census predict how, or even whether, people will vote in a Referendum that isn't even certain to be called?

It won’t and I haven’t suggested it would; but census data is a useful source and referencing ten year old data isn’t exactly ideal.

One thing for sure is that Unionism is in complete disarray. The future of the union is far from certain.

With the only other sure thing being that the greater the threat to the Union, the more Unionists will unite.

Especially if it should be SF who are being seen to threaten us (literally).

Oops, there goes that Paradox again! 

Unionism is all over the place. The union is very much under threat, it’s as unstable as it’s ever been yet I don’t see any unionist unity 

The supposed ally of Unionism and current PM is more concerned  with dipping his front bar in the new intern than he is with the concerns of Ulster Unionism. GB has no economic interest in NI, no interest or kinship with the people here and no amount of tokenism in the form of feasibility studies can mask that fact.

We all know the real paradox is Unionism - you identify as British; you’re insecure about it and feel the need to express it at any and every given opportunity - yet actual British people consider you Irish. 

[ardtole]

There are splits within unionism and within loyalism. There seems to be a serious rift between Ian Ogles family and the current uvf leafership.

From the outside looking in, its getting nasty enough on twitter, hard to know whats happening on the ground.

[trailer]

EG's argument is that there isn't the support for a UI today so there won't be tomorrow. If that is what's holding their precious union together well God help them.

[ned]

"In fact, I'd imagine that the sight of Wee Nicola begging the EU for membership, having to swallow the Euro, missing out on the Barnett Formula subsidy from Westminster, while desperately trying to sell the last of the North Sea's oil to a world which is abandoning fossil fuels etc, would certainly colour NI Unionist thinking, that's for sure!"

Typical arrogance from an entitled Unionist.
Condescending much? Wee Nicola is a patronising and offensive term.
The longer Scotland remains part of the UK the less likely direct EU membership will be applied. However, Scotland has a special case, they voted overwhelmingly to stay in EU, and this was conceded by EU officials.
Scotland does not have to adopt the Euro, there are alternatives. Believe it or not England does not own sterling. Not that it matters now but it was the brainchild of a Scotsman.
North Sea oil is unfortunately much less of an attraction now. Just a pity we didn't have a forward thinking British government who could have managed this resource better to safeguard it's returns for future generations.
And of course the favourite statement for the lazy, arrogant unionists. What about the Barnett Formula? The Scots should count themselves lucky they have the benevolent English to rely on otherwise they'd all be eating thistles and heather and living in peat bogs or half way up a mountain with the sheep? I suggest you do proper research on that.

[grounded]

EG's argument is that there isn't the support for a UI today so there won't be tomorrow. If that is what's holding their precious union together well God help them.

That about sums it up, which is actually quite progressive for a Unionist.

Surely someone somewhere in Unionism is going to at least contenenance the possibility of UI!
      No doubt they'll be labelled a lundy like magic Mike or Trimble but surely at some stage they'll have to face reality. You'd swear if they dont talk about it, it might dissappear all by itself.

[dec]

Read it again.

Esp the bit: "... if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting etc etc etc"

I did read it.

Do you understand the meaning of the words may, shall and shall not which I helpfully bolded in my comment?

[Orior]

Evil Genius wrote:

And no amount of assurances of a post-UI state being a "warm house for Unionists" will persuade them to take a chance on it, why should they? It is still remembered that in 1921, the Unionist/Protestant population of the Free State was just over 10%, half a century later it was what demographers deem "statistically insignificant" i.e. under 2 1/2 per cent. (At the same time, the Nationalist/Catholic population in NI was going the other way).

- The DUP took a chance on Brexit. How did that work out for you?
- How much money would you need to make it a warm house? £20k per annum person? £50k per annum per family?
- Would you look forward to live in a world where Orange marches are truely joyous occasions and a draw to tourists?
- You can still genuflect to the Queen - nobody is stopping you. She will still send you a letter when you reach 100
- An all-ireland soccer team could actually compete
- In Westminster, Unionist politicians are very small fish in very large pond. In the Dail, Unionist politicians would have real influence and could even partner in government
- But you're still thinking about the money, eh?

[seafoid]

Evil Genius wrote:

And no amount of assurances of a post-UI state being a "warm house for Unionists" will persuade them to take a chance on it, why should they? It is still remembered that in 1921, the Unionist/Protestant population of the Free State was just over 10%, half a century later it was what demographers deem "statistically insignificant" i.e. under 2 1/2 per cent. (At the same time, the Nationalist/Catholic population in NI was going the other way).

- The DUP took a chance on Brexit. How did that work out for you?
- How much money would you need to make it a warm house? £20k per annum person? £50k per annum per family?
- Would you look forward to live in a world where Orange marches are truely joyous occasions and a draw to tourists?
- You can still genuflect to the Queen - nobody is stopping you. She will still send you a letter when you reach 100
- An all-ireland soccer team could actually compete
- In Westminster, Unionist politicians are very small fish in very large pond. In the Dail, Unionist politicians would have real influence and could even partner in government
- But you're still thinking about the money, eh?

https://youtu.be/-crgQGdpZR0