You make some very valid points in that opening post although I'm not sure that it warranted a separate thread of it's own given that there is enough discussion around these matters in other threads.
I started a new thread precisely because all the other threads were
ignoring the point I want to make (the Paradox)
Broadly speaking the vote is split 40-40-20 where the 20% is other non designated non nationalist-unionist voters. Guessing exactly how the middle of the road voters will vote is anyones guess but will be decided on by a whole multitude of factors including all of the factors you mention and the possibility of some external black swan event like Brexit or Scottish Indy.
I've stated why I think a majority of those middle-of-the-road voters will stick with the Union. Which along with the solid 40% Unionist vote, will be insufficient to cause the SoS to order a Referendum, never mind see the Nationalists win it.
Of course if you have evidence to the contrary, then fire away. But by "evidence" I mean things like election results and opinion polls, not some vague "Sure it's inevitable/direction of travel/one last push" musings which may suit your case, but don't reflect the facts.
I would like to know how do you define 'stoking up the temperature'? Is talking about a border poll considered to be stoking up the temperature? Should nationalist constantly walk on eggshells for fear of upsetting unionists - I think any open minded soft unionists would be mildly surprised at just how they are treated in a new Ireland. If any lessons are to be learned from how nationalists were treated in the north post partition then this should not be an issue.
Of course you may talk about it. But you also need something to say. And even should you find the right words, you cannot afford to have those words discredited and shown to be insincere by stunts like the Bobby Storey funeral, which only serve to stoke up the atmosphere.
And all that's before you get to
listen to what Unionists have to say. At which point, you should be prepared to hear things that won't please you (we're back to Storey again).
You also state that nationalism needs to contribute to good government in Stormont to prove their credentials to Unionism. Well looking at the events of the last week with the rioting and the undermining of law and order, I think this is slightly ironic. Loyalism and unionism are doing a good enough enough job at turning away any potential FDI suitors and it certainly won't be used as a marketing tool by the NI tourist board either.
I'm not claiming that these "Loyalist" scumbags are any better than "Themmuns" - they're not.
Nor do I think that Unionist politicians are handling events any better than their Nationalist counterparts - they haven't.
But that's not the point. For whether it be UDA hoods rioting in Sandy Row, or Arlene blethering away in Stormont, neither is causing the general Unionist population to say: "Sod it, maybe we would be better off in a United Ireland after all", any more than SF shenanigans cause Nationalist voters to cross over the other way.
But on the basis that it will take a section of the Unionist population to change allegiance for a UI to come about, then Nationalism, esp of the Shinner variety, needs to understand just how feared and even reviled Nationalism is, in its most extreme forms at least.
And a good start would be for SF to just accept that NI exists for the moment and for the sake of all the people, address normal socio-economic politics like a normal political party, rather than forever reverting to type with the old "Brits Out!" mantra.
Hell, even the ability to say "Northern Ireland" once in a while would be nice.
(And before anyone else comes back with a demand for reciprocal respect from Unionists etc, which itself is entirely reasonable, just remember that while all these Orange and Green, Us and Them, Whataboutery politics are going on, NI remains within the Union, as it has done for 100 years.)
Finally, you reference the potential of Gerry Adams and Gerry Kelly being in government in the south and how this would cause you to vote to stay within the union. However the increase in the SF vote in the south has got a minimal amount to do with their UI policy but is more of a result of social issues like housing and a strike back against the perception of a political system skewed in favour of big business and cronyism. It is being led by a generation mostly under the age of 40 who know or care little for the troubles and which they can barely remember. I can understand that there is an element of the older generation who will struggle to move on from that but by the time any border poll takes place I'd hazard a guess that Gerry Adams and Gerry Kelly will be left the stage.
It doesn't matter to Unionists
why people in ROI vote for SF, it only matters that they do. So that if they ever get into a position of real power and influence in the Dail, then that's when Unionism reaches for the 40 foot pole.
Now I'm sorry if that offends ordinary SF voters on here and elsewhere, but whether right or wrong, you have to appreciate that even ordinary Unionists are at least as repelled by SF as eg ordinary Nationalists are by the DUP.
And the only people who can begin to change that are SF/Nationalists generally.
Otherwise the status quo in NI remains.
