Should the country go to Level 5?

[ballinaman]

I think the only solution is to build a time machine and go back 20-30 years and ensure FFG aren't in power so they can't create a malfunded shitshow of a health service that is the HSE/regional health boards is/were

[Angelo]

The big question would be why were the Gov sitting on their hands in the past 6 months and not looking to increase ICU capacity.

Haven't they increased ICU capacity? This cannot be done overnight, without robbing nurses etc from other roles where they are also needed. Yet people come on here complaining about cancer services etc being disrupted while simultaneously advocating that resources be diverted to Covid so that people can continue going to the pub.

I don't think they did.

We're not talking about robbing Peter to pay Paul. We're talking about increasing ICU capacity, 6 months is a lot of time to increase capacity and put plans in place.

The levels in the north are huge but in the 26 it looks like they are taking extreme measures as their health service is simply unable to cope and has the lowest ICU beds per 100k in the EU.

Our healthcare system is unable to cope?

Lowest if you exclude Finland, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, the Netherlands and Sweden.

Someone is pissing in your ear about the southern health system. Its far from perfect, but you are way off here.

If you don't believe me.


https://twitter.com/VirginMediaNews/status/1313196493017358339

[Blowitupref]

If cases double every week, then 12 becomes 24, then 48, then 96, 192, 384, 768, 1,536, 3,072, 6,144 etc.

So you can go from 12 to 1,536 in the space of two months, and a fortnight later you're at 6,144.

It's not the number of cases you need to be watching, it's the rate of increase, even if the numbers are small initially. They have a way of getting big very quickly.

Little chance of that happening in Leitrim who had a little over a 100 cases total since February. Each county can be monitored weekly and moved up or down levels and a good number of the counties i named there had decreases in case numbers the last few weeks

In the three Connacht hospitals in Mayo, Sligo and Galway there is currently 1 person with Covid in hospital surely another reason to be keeping those counties at level 2?

[Angelo]

I think the only solution is to build a time machine and go back 20-30 years and ensure FFG aren't in power so they can't create a malfunded shitshow of a health service that is the HSE/regional health boards is/were

If we get FFG to build that time machine we can ensure that it is the most expensive time machine that is never built.

[GetOverTheBar]

If cases double every week, then 12 becomes 24, then 48, then 96, 192, 384, 768, 1,536, 3,072, 6,144 etc.

So you can go from 12 to 1,536 in the space of two months, and a fortnight later you're at 6,144.

It's not the number of cases you need to be watching, it's the rate of increase, even if the numbers are small initially. They have a way of getting big very quickly.

Little chance of that happening in Leitrim who had a little over a 100 cases total since February. Each county can be monitored weekly and moved up or down levels and a good number of the counties i named there had decreases in case numbers the last few weeks

In the three Connacht hospitals in Mayo, Sligo and Galway there is currently 1 person with Covid in hospital surely another reason to be keeping those counties at level 2?

Away with your complete common sense! It has no place on GAA Board.

[Rossfan]

Crazy stuff Blowitup putting all Counties on same level irrespective of the number of cases or Hospitalisations.
Also the blanket ban on travel outside your own County.
Someone in Rooskey is 50 metres from Leitrim and 300 metres from Longford.
Can't go to either but can traipse off to Balkyforan 80 or 90 km away.
Also have to go to Ros Town to shop instead of the usual Carrick or Longford.

[magpie seanie]

Should have gone to level 5. Will be in level 5 soon enough. Delaying is only going to cost lives unfortunately and will probably cause more damage economically (longer lockdown).

People on about small numbers of cases in the likes of Sligo etc - it only takes a "small" number of cases to get right up there in the cases per 100000 population rankings. 2 weeks ago there were practically no cases in Sligo - 39 in a fortnight including 21 in the last 2 days (up to October 3rd) is pretty worrying.

Rossfan's point about county based lockdowns is well made it must be said.

[Angelo]

Should have gone to level 5. Will be in level 5 soon enough.

I don't really see a whole pile of difference to Level 3 and Level 5 if I'm honest.

The hospitality sector is de facto closed now. Don't schools remain open in L5 anyway?

[Blowitupref]

Should have gone to level 5. Will be in level 5 soon enough. Delaying is only going to cost lives unfortunately and will probably cause more damage economically (longer lockdown).

People on about small numbers of cases in the likes of Sligo etc - it only takes a "small" number of cases to get right up there in the cases per 100000 population rankings. 2 weeks ago there were practically no cases in Sligo - 39 in a fortnight including 21 in the last 2 days (up to October 3rd) is pretty worrying.

Rossfan's point about county based lockdowns is well made it must be said.

Incidence rate for small populated counties such as Sligo, Leitrim should not be a focus, it can shoot up with one cluster and back down again in a few days. You would need a few weeks of increase numbers for it to become a worrying situation in Sligo.

As already pointed out there isn't a lot different between level 3 and 5 but level 2 is different and I don't see the sense of counties with low case numbers with few from those counties requiring hospital treatment getting lumped into level 3 with the rest.

[joemamas]

The big question would be why were the Gov sitting on their hands in the past 6 months and not looking to increase ICU capacity.

Haven't they increased ICU capacity? This cannot be done overnight, without robbing nurses etc from other roles where they are also needed. Yet people come on here complaining about cancer services etc being disrupted while simultaneously advocating that resources be diverted to Covid so that people can continue going to the pub.

I don't think they did.

We're not talking about robbing Peter to pay Paul. We're talking about increasing ICU capacity, 6 months is a lot of time to increase capacity and put plans in place.

The levels in the north are huge but in the 26 it looks like they are taking extreme measures as their health service is simply unable to cope and has the lowest ICU beds per 100k in the EU.

Bingo

The health service and Govt have only had seven months to prepare for a potential/possible increase in the autumn.
Appears to me that all they have done is continually recommend to shut down the entire country irrespective of infection rate in each county, a lazy one size fits all solution.
As someone posted earlier, why shut down large parts of rural Ireland, when the #'s are by far bigger in Dublin and surrounding counties, and a few other cities.
This was the case for the entire Summer.
I do not want anybody to lose their life over this horrible virus.
However, It is a good job they cannot measure depression/disillusionment, the numbers would be off the charts, but as these folks don't need to be hospitalized immediately, it is not an issue.
IMO and please correct me if i am wrong, this all comes down to sh*t planning or investment in healthcare throughout the country and especially in rural parts of Ireland.
If a Rural Ireland political party does arise out of this mess, the public have only themselves to blame.

[Lar Naparka]

The lockdown will kill people in the long term.

This is one of these slogans without any obvious basis in fact. How, exactly will the lockdown kill people in the long term? The economy is damaged anyway by the virus, the lockdown doesn't make it materially worse. Will the Chinese economy suffer more in the long term than US?

I cant agree with you on this one. There are large numbers with serious non-Covid problems like cancer, copd etc. who are being denied life-saving treatment  due to the demands made on the health resources by Covid.

[Cavan19]

The lockdown will kill people in the long term.

This is one of these slogans without any obvious basis in fact. How, exactly will the lockdown kill people in the long term? The economy is damaged anyway by the virus, the lockdown doesn't make it materially worse. Will the Chinese economy suffer more in the long term than US?

I cant agree with you on this one. There are large numbers with s[b]erious non-Covid problems like cancer, copd etc[/b]. who are being denied life-saving treatment  due to the demands made on the health resources by Covid.

That is only going to worse if there isn't a lockdown as more and more covid patients will require hospital treatment.

[armaghniac]

The lockdown will kill people in the long term.

This is one of these slogans without any obvious basis in fact. How, exactly will the lockdown kill people in the long term? The economy is damaged anyway by the virus, the lockdown doesn't make it materially worse. Will the Chinese economy suffer more in the long term than US?

I cant agree with you on this one. There are large numbers with s[b]erious non-Covid problems like cancer, copd etc[/b]. who are being denied life-saving treatment  due to the demands made on the health resources by Covid.

That is only going to worse if there isn't a lockdown as more and more covid patients will require hospital treatment.

Exactly. It is ridiculous how people propose that not having a lockdown somehow helps people with other health issues, it is a falsehood of Trumpian proportions, yet it is repeated again and again.
Lockdowns reduce demand on the health service and help ill people.

[imtommygunn]

There are areas where people will suffer. Cancer patients in particular.

In general yes you're right but there are areas. It's not trumpian to suggest that - it's fact. The cancer treatments have had to ramp down. Maybe you could argue that is because they are planning for reduced staffing levels due to staff getting covid but the cancer treatments have had to be ramped down. (That is the north we are talking about but I would guess the south has had that issue too).

[seafoid]

Lockdowns are crude and economically damaging. The Govt is third or 4th division in terms of Covid effectiveness. Fix this before going to level 5 .

The Irish Times has decent analysis these days :

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/hard-times-ahead-unless-covid-19-policy-is-seriously-revamped-1.4370823

"With the World Health Organisation last month giving the thumbs-up to antigen testing, we should be planning to put in place a high-volume system of rapid and cheap testing to complement the existing system.

Belatedly, we are investing more in retrospective investigation of cases and clusters. By going back to the causes of outbreaks we can learn more about high-risk environments, and do more to make them safer or rule them off-limits. We can also learn to identify the minority of infected people who spread most of the cases, and understand what gives rise to this version of the 80:20 rule.

Instead of shutting things down, we need to be allowing them to happen – restaurants and travel, for example – under strict rules. Controlled environments are good; uncontrolled ones are bad."