Author Topic: GAA Response to Coronavirus  (Read 14982 times)

GetOverTheBar

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #135 on: March 23, 2020, 04:40:00 PM »
Lots of moving parts to this but in answer to some of the comments above the data is there to suggest:

1. China and neighbouring Asian countries did a brilliant job of locking down this virus.


Did anyone see the videos floating about with body bags lined up on the street in China? It could be edited shite but something not right with China figures IMO.

Do not underestimate how much it could be worth to some countries, for demand to and from China for nearly anything to be reduced greatly long term.

Same reason as you are right to be wary of Chinese figures, the Chinese also need to be seen to be 'back on track'.

There is a lot at stake economy wise for lots of people here when everything 'gets back to normal'. I'd take any kind of videos or pictures or anything like that with a pinch of salt as it would suit a lot of Western Nations for the Chinese economy to never recover over this all.


WT4E

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #136 on: March 23, 2020, 10:43:14 PM »
Agreed ..... In summary..... Hard to know what the fcuk to believe these days.

OgraAnDun

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #137 on: March 24, 2020, 07:03:22 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.

magpie seanie

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #138 on: March 24, 2020, 09:57:05 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.


You need to understand the measures taken in the respective countries. The numbers make sense in that context. China failed initially to react and then brought in really tough, draconian measures. Sut everything down. The impact could be seen from outer space in terms of vast reduction in emissions. Built new hospitals. Unreal stuff that can't/won't be replicated in western countries. These measures worked and the outbreak is under control there for now. Italy effectively did nothing until it was too late to avoid major death and disruption. Even now, their lockdown isn't as severe as in China. Spain is closely following the same trajectory, as are several European countries, including the UK. I personally don't believe we're in much better position though we did close schools etc much earlier so may get some benefit from that.

I think a huge % of the population in Ireland are in denial of what's about to happen.

tbrick18

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #139 on: March 24, 2020, 10:04:36 AM »
General question with the use of GAA facilities as testing centres in ROI....how do you go about getting a test as a member of the public?
Do you just show up?
Here in the 6, there's currently no testing centres that I'm aware of and policy seems to be that by April we'll be testing 800 a day. I haven't seen anything to say who will be eligible for tests, what happens to those testing positive and if there's any plan to increase the volume of testing.

I see the Swatragh club in Derry have offered their facilities up as a testing centre or field hospital.
Does Croke Park have a policy on this or is this a club being pro-active?

OgraAnDun

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #140 on: March 24, 2020, 10:07:06 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.


You need to understand the measures taken in the respective countries. The numbers make sense in that context. China failed initially to react and then brought in really tough, draconian measures. Sut everything down. The impact could be seen from outer space in terms of vast reduction in emissions. Built new hospitals. Unreal stuff that can't/won't be replicated in western countries. These measures worked and the outbreak is under control there for now. Italy effectively did nothing until it was too late to avoid major death and disruption. Even now, their lockdown isn't as severe as in China. Spain is closely following the same trajectory, as are several European countries, including the UK. I personally don't believe we're in much better position though we did close schools etc much earlier so may get some benefit from that.

I think a huge % of the population in Ireland are in denial of what's about to happen.

I comprehend that, and appreciate measures like building hospitals cannot be replicated in the west, but in Wuhan the first cases (of a random viral pneumonia) were discovered in December yet a lockdown wasnít imposed on Wuhan until the 23rd January, after millions had left and travelled to other cities around China (and the world). A reduction in NO2 has been seen in northern Italy also. While I fully comprehend that the west wonít be as effective in combating this as China, a 2.5% death rate in Wuhan compared to 10% in Italy (not sure what it is in Spain) just seems fictitious to me.

Ireland is on the same path as Italy in terms of daily increase in cases, if not deaths, from the graphs Iíve seen on the FT. I agree that most people here donít have a clue whatís coming down the path - they wouldnít be queuing like morons for fish and chips in Howth if they did.

armaghniac

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #141 on: March 24, 2020, 10:33:25 AM »
General question with the use of GAA facilities as testing centres in ROI....how do you go about getting a test as a member of the public?
Do you just show up?


No. You have to be sent by your GP who interviews you by phone.

Quote
Here in the 6, there's currently no testing centres that I'm aware of and policy seems to be that by April we'll be testing 800 a day. I haven't seen anything to say who will be eligible for tests, what happens to those testing positive and if there's any plan to increase the volume of testing.

There is no evidence of any concrete plan to test people in the 6 counties, until they are ill enough to go to hospital.

I comprehend that, and appreciate measures like building hospitals cannot be replicated in the west, but in Wuhan the first cases (of a random viral pneumonia) were discovered in December yet a lockdown wasnít imposed on Wuhan until the 23rd January, after millions had left and travelled to other cities around China (and the world). A reduction in NO2 has been seen in northern Italy also. While I fully comprehend that the west wonít be as effective in combating this as China, a 2.5% death rate in Wuhan compared to 10% in Italy (not sure what it is in Spain) just seems fictitious to me.

there is a 0.5% fatality rate in Ireland, do you also regard this as fictitious?

Quote
Ireland is on the same path as Italy in terms of daily increase in cases, if not deaths, from the graphs Iíve seen on the FT. I agree that most people here donít have a clue whatís coming down the path - they wouldnít be queuing like morons for fish and chips in Howth if they did.

Ireland is not on the same path as Italy, it is better compared to Germany.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

OgraAnDun

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #142 on: March 24, 2020, 11:27:39 AM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242226333012373505?s=21 - youíre free to look for it yourself, courtesy of the FT. And no, I donít believe the rate here is fictitious, but weíre an a much earlier stage than China and are a country who isnít known for massive secrecy and suppression of the truth.

Admittedly not quite Italy, but itís not far away.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 11:32:22 AM by OgraAnDun »

GetOverTheBar

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #143 on: March 24, 2020, 11:48:49 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.

The Chinese biggest flaw was their biggest saving grace. Nobody took any action because they were afraid of the regime, but when the regime realised there was a big issue. They aggressively took to work, hospitals up in days, people battered on streets if they broke the lock down - you couldn't get away with that kind of thing here.

I'm in the boat that I tend to believe the Chinese numbers on current cases, of course you must be aware that they will present it as a triumph to the world their lock down is intended to close in April, sending doctors and nurses overseas etc but of course the question must be asked, in a country so populous and city wise dense....how did so few get infected/die? I would suspect the true tally is much greater than the world knows and something the Italians would never be able to cover up - How many of these citizens were deemed 'illegal' and not on registers since the 1 child policy etc? There certainly must have been a morphing of numbers somewhere.

The biggest problem is, this is going to happen again. The trading of wild animals I believe in China has now been made illegal - before this is was, as you were. But when things go illegal, there is always a blossoming black market. The Chinese will need to be ruthless in this going forward...in a kind of way, again, you wouldn't get away with here with a few fines here and there for the lads.

armaghniac

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #144 on: March 24, 2020, 12:02:34 PM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242226333012373505?s=21 - youíre free to look for it yourself, courtesy of the FT. And no, I donít believe the rate here is fictitious, but weíre an a much earlier stage than China and are a country who isnít known for massive secrecy and suppression of the truth.

Admittedly not quite Italy, but itís not far away.

It is always good to see data, but this data is not consistent as testing rates vary in the countries concerned. On that chart Germany is worse than the UK, reflecting testing levels, but the UK has 3 times the deaths of Germany which suggests that things are not as good there.

We'll see later this week as the measures start to take effect. The public health people no doubt have useful data on when people first had symptoms, the areas of the country where there appears to be transmission etc, so that data will provide insight that you or I do not have. 
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

armaghniac

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #145 on: March 24, 2020, 01:06:18 PM »
The biggest problem is, this is going to happen again. The trading of wild animals I believe in China has now been made illegal - before this is was, as you were. But when things go illegal, there is always a blossoming black market. The Chinese will need to be ruthless in this going forward...in a kind of way, again, you wouldn't get away with here with a few fines here and there for the lads.

In the past the population tolerated this wild animal thing, I suspect a lot of people will be less tolerant now and this will facilitate strong action by the authorities.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

magpie seanie

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #146 on: March 24, 2020, 01:50:14 PM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.


You need to understand the measures taken in the respective countries. The numbers make sense in that context. China failed initially to react and then brought in really tough, draconian measures. Sut everything down. The impact could be seen from outer space in terms of vast reduction in emissions. Built new hospitals. Unreal stuff that can't/won't be replicated in western countries. These measures worked and the outbreak is under control there for now. Italy effectively did nothing until it was too late to avoid major death and disruption. Even now, their lockdown isn't as severe as in China. Spain is closely following the same trajectory, as are several European countries, including the UK. I personally don't believe we're in much better position though we did close schools etc much earlier so may get some benefit from that.

I think a huge % of the population in Ireland are in denial of what's about to happen.

I comprehend that, and appreciate measures like building hospitals cannot be replicated in the west, but in Wuhan the first cases (of a random viral pneumonia) were discovered in December yet a lockdown wasnít imposed on Wuhan until the 23rd January, after millions had left and travelled to other cities around China (and the world). A reduction in NO2 has been seen in northern Italy also. While I fully comprehend that the west wonít be as effective in combating this as China, a 2.5% death rate in Wuhan compared to 10% in Italy (not sure what it is in Spain) just seems fictitious to me.

Ireland is on the same path as Italy in terms of daily increase in cases, if not deaths, from the graphs Iíve seen on the FT. I agree that most people here donít have a clue whatís coming down the path - they wouldnít be queuing like morons for fish and chips in Howth if they did.


If everyone can get proper medical treatment to mortality rate would be below 1%. The problem is when ICU's are full and people with serious cases cannot get treated - they all die. So basically China had less time in the situation where their health system couldn't cope. Italy is living through that at the moment and has a way to go before it returns to a situation where all people can be treated. The Italian number will lower over time due to a few other reasons. The number of recorded cases is likely understated due to people not realising they have the virus though I'm not sure it would materially impact the respective numbers.

I understand historically that data coming out of China has to be treated with a health warning but it doesn't look that far fetched to me.

GetOverTheBar

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #147 on: March 24, 2020, 02:00:43 PM »
The biggest problem is, this is going to happen again. The trading of wild animals I believe in China has now been made illegal - before this is was, as you were. But when things go illegal, there is always a blossoming black market. The Chinese will need to be ruthless in this going forward...in a kind of way, again, you wouldn't get away with here with a few fines here and there for the lads.

In the past the population tolerated this wild animal thing, I suspect a lot of people will be less tolerant now and this will facilitate strong action by the authorities.

Yes I would agree with you on this - now if the Chinese general (peasant) population knows that it's not safe or not, that could be an issue. You would hope that the Chinese will do their part on a large scale with education but who knows what the people are being told there. Unfortunately I've never been to China so all I can do is speculate / throw out open thought.

Not really sure if Bat / Pangolin or whatever it was we are blaming is a middle class food or what, it's my assumption that it is because the Pangolin was the most trafficked animal in the world it had a certain value for the middle classes.

You would hope their people certainly will remember this long into the memory, however SARS / MERS wasn't all that long ago. I wonder if we in the West will fall back into old habit in the months / years to come.

magpie seanie

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #148 on: March 24, 2020, 03:06:45 PM »
The biggest problem is, this is going to happen again. The trading of wild animals I believe in China has now been made illegal - before this is was, as you were. But when things go illegal, there is always a blossoming black market. The Chinese will need to be ruthless in this going forward...in a kind of way, again, you wouldn't get away with here with a few fines here and there for the lads.

In the past the population tolerated this wild animal thing, I suspect a lot of people will be less tolerant now and this will facilitate strong action by the authorities.

Yes I would agree with you on this - now if the Chinese general (peasant) population knows that it's not safe or not, that could be an issue. You would hope that the Chinese will do their part on a large scale with education but who knows what the people are being told there. Unfortunately I've never been to China so all I can do is speculate / throw out open thought.

Not really sure if Bat / Pangolin or whatever it was we are blaming is a middle class food or what, it's my assumption that it is because the Pangolin was the most trafficked animal in the world it had a certain value for the middle classes.

You would hope their people certainly will remember this long into the memory, however SARS / MERS wasn't all that long ago. I wonder if we in the West will fall back into old habit in the months / years to come.


My understanding is the rich and powerful are the demand market for these wild animals, believing myths about the benefits of eating them. Transmission in this case was Bat to Pangolin to Human. Wet markets should never reopen.

GetOverTheBar

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Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« Reply #149 on: March 24, 2020, 03:24:03 PM »
The biggest problem is, this is going to happen again. The trading of wild animals I believe in China has now been made illegal - before this is was, as you were. But when things go illegal, there is always a blossoming black market. The Chinese will need to be ruthless in this going forward...in a kind of way, again, you wouldn't get away with here with a few fines here and there for the lads.

In the past the population tolerated this wild animal thing, I suspect a lot of people will be less tolerant now and this will facilitate strong action by the authorities.

Yes I would agree with you on this - now if the Chinese general (peasant) population knows that it's not safe or not, that could be an issue. You would hope that the Chinese will do their part on a large scale with education but who knows what the people are being told there. Unfortunately I've never been to China so all I can do is speculate / throw out open thought.

Not really sure if Bat / Pangolin or whatever it was we are blaming is a middle class food or what, it's my assumption that it is because the Pangolin was the most trafficked animal in the world it had a certain value for the middle classes.

You would hope their people certainly will remember this long into the memory, however SARS / MERS wasn't all that long ago. I wonder if we in the West will fall back into old habit in the months / years to come.


My understanding is the rich and powerful are the demand market for these wild animals, believing myths about the benefits of eating them. Transmission in this case was Bat to Pangolin to Human. Wet markets should never reopen.

Completely agree with you, but look at the size of China. How do you stop that? The black market must be insane there despite the obvious detention never seeing light of day again threat.

Not too educated on the Wet Markets - But my assumption would be these are city based only, but the actual storage / trafficking of the animals could be anywhere. Seen a documentary there on youtube on the markets once, animals stacked on animals, all sorts flooding down through the cages to whatever poor creature is at the bottom gets the lot. This was always going to happen, just nobody cared until now.