Author Topic: China Coronavirus  (Read 235117 times)

J70

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2490 on: March 27, 2020, 03:51:19 PM »
London could well be heading that way too :(

and also New York.

The brother tested positive for CV-19 in NYC.

Went down to his GP's as normal, he'd pneumonia as well.

Sent home to self isolate and a few meds.

Rang his boss to tell him he'd tested positive for it whilst working in Manhattan on a floor with 100 other lads (construction) and the boss told him none of the others have complained so business as usual.....

Construction is going full steam ahead in NYC.

Its crazy, and many of the lads involved are obviously not too happy.

Hope your brother comes through ok. The hospitals here are getting very dicey.

Solo_run

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2491 on: March 27, 2020, 03:53:46 PM »
Too many factors could be responsible for the lack of increases in hospitalisations so far.

Sorry, but I consider that sentence a cop out. There could be something fundamentally different about it in the UK, but there is nothing to support that.

Based on what is known about COVID-19 at the moment:
- GPs sending people home would stop when the people they sent home start dying of pneumonia in significant numbers. Furthermore, post mortems would have been carried out as a matter of urgency given the awareness of COVID-19 in Wuhan at the middle of January.

- Climate will affect spread - but won't really affect severity*. Its the severity coupled to spread that does not make sense in the Oxford model. Furthermore, reduced spread would be contrary to what Oxford are claiming.

- Again, an explosion of cases due to a mass gathering won't affect severity. Perhaps there is a more benign form of it running around parts of the UK, but there is no basis for that based on evidence elsewhere. At the moment that little more than unfounded speculation.


*exceptions for hay fever etc, but we aren't at that stage of the year yet.

If you have ever done research you will know that it is impossible to account for all factors, especially at this time when there's more emphasis on controlling it. It's not as simple as looking at relationships such as the hotter it is the more ice creams are bought.

Genetics, culture, underlying conditions, virus mutation, immunity, age, gender, exposure to the virus, social distancing, travelling, diet, medication, air quality, lifestyle, pregnancy.... These are all factors that are to be considered. Why? Because the virus is new and nothing is known about it. Something as trivial as taking ibuprofen has been implicated in complications of Coronavirus and undoubtedly there will be more.

With regards to GPs sending patients home - this would have happened before the awareness of the virus. Deaths that have occurred before the outbreak could have been contributed to Pneumonia complications as a result of influenza. Dying from the flu most people wouldn't think twice about it, it happens. We won't know if this was in society before the first reported cases it shortly after because it wouldn't be an appropriate use of resources testing dead people. Germany aren't testing dead people for the virus and are instead using them on people who are alive which is probably why they have so few reported deaths considering they have +30k diagnosed. That may change soon.

On another note how many people do you think have died of Flu in the last few weeks? I bet there have been quite a few. I fully support lockdown being implemented because not a lot is known about CV at present and people should be worried yet remain calm. The only thing you can do is what has been suggested.

There have already been two strains of Coronavirus confirmed worldwide. Perhaps we are experiencing the less severe strain. In fact Iceland have identified 40 mutations of the virus and can link them back to their places of origin.

The model Oxford have used isn't rigorous but other models will have their flaws too. It will be interesting to see the results of the study for when the population is tested for antibodies.

« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 04:07:23 PM by Solo_run »

Walt Jabsco

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2492 on: March 27, 2020, 04:40:47 PM »
What are the chances of London going into total lock down in the next few days?

imtommygunn

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2493 on: March 27, 2020, 04:42:46 PM »
Not sure about the next few days but I think it'll happen and will happen here too.

screenexile

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2494 on: March 27, 2020, 04:44:42 PM »
Italy with 919 deaths in the last 24 hours!!!

Rich Ricci

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2495 on: March 27, 2020, 04:46:11 PM »
180 odd deaths in UK. 919 in Italy.

UK deaths could be scary this next time week.

*not that 180 in a day isnít scary
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 04:54:28 PM by Rich Ricci »

Solo_run

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2496 on: March 27, 2020, 04:51:13 PM »
For those of us that do survive COVID-19 I think we have to take into consideration the damage it does to the lung's long term and how it will effect our ability to fight respiratory illnesses in the future.

quit yo jibbajabba

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2497 on: March 27, 2020, 04:53:20 PM »
700 odd in Spain.

imtommygunn

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2498 on: March 27, 2020, 04:55:53 PM »
180 odd deaths in UK. 919 in Italy.

UK deaths could be scary this next time week.

*not that 180 in a day isnít scary

It's coming :(

armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2499 on: March 27, 2020, 04:58:28 PM »
180 deaths odd in UK. 919 in Italy.

UK deaths could be scary this next time week.

*not that 180 in a day isnít scary

And 769 in Spain, which would have been a record if the Italians had not broken their own record.
But even the Netherlands has had 112 deaths and it was hardly on the radar a couple of weeks ago (I was supposed to go there last week and had been reading about it).

However, it is also clear that some employers here have refused to get on board, Linden foods in Dungannon was mentioned. How hard is it to stagger breaks, ensure there are queues at start and end of work and provide some washing facilities?  After this all premises should have adequate washing facilities even if they remain partly unused.
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Maroon Manc

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2500 on: March 27, 2020, 05:03:55 PM »
What's the thoughts on the chancellor's announcement?

I fall in between the cracks as have only been self employed for a few months. Feel sick  :-\

Wife's in the same boat, out on her own since November. Won't get a penny either because of savings.

I don't know why they can't go back and look at an individuals last 3 years P60's . So many people getting shafted, I'd have always classed those who are the sole director in a ltd company as self employed. Everyone I know who's out on their own and off the top of my head I can think of about 20 people and their all sole director ltd companies.


seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2501 on: March 27, 2020, 05:07:05 PM »
180 odd deaths in UK. 919 in Italy.

UK deaths could be scary this next time week.

*not that 180 in a day isnít scary
the UK seems to be 2 weeks behind Italy
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RadioGAAGAA

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2502 on: March 27, 2020, 05:07:37 PM »
F88k sake.

I don't want to get drawn into one of these about something that is all wrong.

If you have ever done research you will know that it is impossible to account for all factors, especially at this time when there's more emphasis on controlling it. It's not as simple as looking at relationships such as the hotter it is the more ice creams are bought.

I've a phd. I know how to separate the wheat from the chaff thank you very much.

Genetics, culture, underlying conditions, virus mutation, immunity, age, gender, exposure to the virus, social distancing, travelling, diet, medication, air quality, lifestyle, pregnancy.... These are all factors that are to be considered. Why? Because the virus is new and nothing is known about it. Something as trivial as taking ibuprofen has been implicated in complications of Coronavirus and undoubtedly there will be more.

Yes, all factors - yet not one of the bolded ones are either relevant or real.
Those not bolded are not significant when considered in the context of comparing the UK vs Italy. Or France vs. Italy. Or the rest of China vs Wuhan.

Factors affect details. In some cases the details can add up to something comprehensive - but the chances of that here are tending to zero.

Please keep in mind - the biggest issue with the Oxford model is the curve of critical cases as observed now. It simply cannot be reconciled with a significant degree of exposure occurring across the population in January/February.

With regards to GPs sending patients home - this would have happened before the awareness of the virus.

So December to early January?

What happens from mid January to start of March?


Deaths that have occurred before the outbreak could have been contributed to Pneumonia complications as a result of influenza.

That is simply not credible man.

For the Oxford projection, the curve of pneumonia related deaths would be advanced by several weeks - back into early February. Do you really think significant numbers (of the order of hundreds/day) would have died of pneumonia without an autopsy and post-mortem revealing COVID-19? Particularly given the WHO released their preliminary report and accompanying warnings at the end of Jan?

Come on FFS!

On another note how many people do you think have died of Flu in the last few weeks? I bet there have been quite a few. I fully support lockdown being implemented because not a lot is known about CV at present and people should be worried yet remain calm. The only thing you can do is what has been suggested.

Died of flu or died of viral infection with respiratory problems?

The common flu does not present in the same manner as COVID-19.

There have already been two strains of Coronavirus confirmed worldwide. Perhaps we are experiencing the less severe strain. In fact Iceland have identified 40 mutations of the virus and can link them back to their places of origin.

Very unlikely we aren't getting the same strain as Italy given the amount of people coming back from ski holidays that then were not quarantined by the idiotic government.

Furthermore, and most unfortunately, there is a body of thought that getting one strain does not develop immunity to the second strain. There have been observed cases of people getting it twice, and that is one of the postulations on the matter.

The model Oxford have used isn't rigorous but other models will have their flaws too. It will be interesting to see the results of the study for when the population is tested for antibodies.

Did you read the paper?

Do you understand their assumptions?
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Milltown Row2

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2503 on: March 27, 2020, 05:19:25 PM »
Has there been cases of people who are immune to this?
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RadioGAAGAA

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #2504 on: March 27, 2020, 05:23:15 PM »
Has there been cases of people who are immune to this?

Natural immunity?

Not to my knowledge. I'm not even sure its possible - either you have the antibodies or you don't.

But then we wouldn't know at this point anyway. They'd have beat it off without showing any symptoms so it'd take a detailed analysis when its all calmed down to prove that either way - if its even possible to prove.


I suppose, once the anti-body test is developed - you could test a swath of people you know for sure have not been exposed - and then you can see if any of them have the antibodies. Can't see anyone bothering as its astronomical odds of a clear positive without being bigger questions around quality of isolation.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 05:27:17 PM by RadioGAAGAA »
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