Author Topic: China Coronavirus  (Read 412599 times)

Never beat the deeler

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #60 on: February 07, 2020, 01:39:14 AM »
While I also agree that influenza should generally be taken more seriously, the Corona virus is currently running at 1 death every 50 confirmed cases (or approx 2%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I was wondering if the confirmed deaths tally was right (and not being underestimated) given the early reaction, but then your link says this:

Quote
A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Any wonder they were scared shitless if that was the earlier mortality rates.

So reasonably confident they are reporting true numbers (not that 2% is good or anything, but its better than 15%!).

Not everyone went to hospital though, some people only had moderate symptoms like 'flu. Only those badly affected ended up in hospital and more of these died.

But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu
Hasta la victoria siempre

armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #61 on: February 07, 2020, 01:45:53 AM »
So, are we all fucked lads?

Only 2% of us.
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seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2020, 02:53:15 PM »
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/11/china-cannot-fight-coronavirus-avert-economic-crisis-time/

Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s oil guru, said it is becoming a commodity massacre. “The world is facing the biggest demand shock since the 2009 global financial crisis”.
There is an inherent contradiction in the market’s nonchalance. Yes, it is possible that China’s 50-million lockdown and use of extreme surveillance and coercive power will accelerate the process of “contact tracking”, catching enough of those infected before they can spread it further. Such a hi-tech totalitarian response to an epidemic has never been tried before.
Shipping has buckled. Lloyd’s List says tanker rates have crashed. To be exact, spot earnings on the TD3C Middle East to China route have fallen to $16,000 a day from $115,000 in early January, a pattern replicated for smaller vessels. It said "SIRE" ship inspections cannot be carried out in much of Asia. The closure of Chinese shipyards has paralysed drydock and retrofit work.
This from Richard Meade at Lloyd’s List: “This health emergency has paralysed ports, it has disrupted schedules across all sectors, led to serious challenges for crew management, and prompted a round of container services to be withdrawn, with lines now forecasting issues well into the second quarter of the year. It has thrown the global gas market into turmoil,” he said.
He told me Lloyd’s is getting reports of ships floating round Asia unable to dock at port after port, and running out of food.
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Fionntamhnach

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2020, 08:29:35 PM »
Chinese scholar blames Xi Jinping, Communist Party for not controlling coronavirus outbreak

  • Beijing’s crackdown on civil society, freedom of expression made it impossible for people to raise the alarm about the situation, Tsinghua University professor Xu Zhangrun says in online article
  • Intellectual Xu Zhiyong repeats his call for ‘not very smart’ Xi to step down as leader

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A prominent Chinese scholar has published an article criticising the country’s leadership for failing to control the coronavirus outbreak that has infected almost 25,000 people around the world.

Xu Zhangrun, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, who has been under close surveillance by the authorities, blamed Communist Party leaders for putting politics ahead of the people in his strongly worded piece, which was published on several overseas Chinese-language websites this week.

“The political system has collapsed under the tyranny, and a governance system [made up] of bureaucrats, which has taken [the party] more than 30 years to build has floundered,” he said in a reference to how reform-minded leaders sought to rebuild the country and modernise the government after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 and moved away from one-man rule to collective leadership.

Xu was suspended from teaching at Tsinghua University in 2018, after the publication of an article in which he criticised the decision by party leaders to lift the two-term limit for presidents, allowing Xi Jinping to remain in office beyond his second term, which ends in 2023.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3049233/chinese-scholar-blames-xi-jinping-communist-party-not

Also, a website & map tracking cases worldwide...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Muck Savage

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2020, 11:25:30 PM »
While I also agree that influenza should generally be taken more seriously, the Corona virus is currently running at 1 death every 50 confirmed cases (or approx 2%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I was wondering if the confirmed deaths tally was right (and not being underestimated) given the early reaction, but then your link says this:

Quote
A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Any wonder they were scared shitless if that was the earlier mortality rates.

So reasonably confident they are reporting true numbers (not that 2% is good or anything, but its better than 15%!).

Not everyone went to hospital though, some people only had moderate symptoms like 'flu. Only those badly affected ended up in hospital and more of these died.

But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu

I don’t understand where 2% is coming from. To date ~43k people confirmed to have got it, 4.3K cured and ~1K dead. That’s close to a 20% kill rate! It has to be based on cured/dead and not based on number of people that got it. There’s still about 38K with it and they could go either way before this is done.

screenexile

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #65 on: February 12, 2020, 12:30:19 AM »
While I also agree that influenza should generally be taken more seriously, the Corona virus is currently running at 1 death every 50 confirmed cases (or approx 2%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I was wondering if the confirmed deaths tally was right (and not being underestimated) given the early reaction, but then your link says this:

Quote
A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Any wonder they were scared shitless if that was the earlier mortality rates.

So reasonably confident they are reporting true numbers (not that 2% is good or anything, but its better than 15%!).

Not everyone went to hospital though, some people only had moderate symptoms like 'flu. Only those badly affected ended up in hospital and more of these died.

But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu

I don’t understand where 2% is coming from. To date ~43k people confirmed to have got it, 4.3K cured and ~1K dead. That’s close to a 20% kill rate! It has to be based on cured/dead and not based on number of people that got it. There’s still about 38K with it and they could go either way before this is done.

I think I would leave the calculation of mortality rates to people who do this for a living and not to some randomer on gaaboard making up his own percentages!!!

armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #66 on: February 12, 2020, 12:56:33 AM »
Quote
But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu

I wonder what effect is the present environment in China having on the spread of regular flu'? This might be good data for modelling the new virus.
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Jell 0 Biafra

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #67 on: February 12, 2020, 01:09:24 AM »
While I also agree that influenza should generally be taken more seriously, the Corona virus is currently running at 1 death every 50 confirmed cases (or approx 2%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I was wondering if the confirmed deaths tally was right (and not being underestimated) given the early reaction, but then your link says this:

Quote
A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Any wonder they were scared shitless if that was the earlier mortality rates.

So reasonably confident they are reporting true numbers (not that 2% is good or anything, but its better than 15%!).

Not everyone went to hospital though, some people only had moderate symptoms like 'flu. Only those badly affected ended up in hospital and more of these died.

But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu

I don’t understand where 2% is coming from. To date ~43k people confirmed to have got it, 4.3K cured and ~1K dead. That’s close to a 20% kill rate! It has to be based on cured/dead and not based on number of people that got it. There’s still about 38K with it and they could go either way before this is done.

Mortality rate is the % of those infected who died from the infection.  Going by your figures, that's 1/43, which is slightly more than 2%.

Never beat the deeler

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #68 on: February 12, 2020, 02:45:55 AM »
While I also agree that influenza should generally be taken more seriously, the Corona virus is currently running at 1 death every 50 confirmed cases (or approx 2%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I was wondering if the confirmed deaths tally was right (and not being underestimated) given the early reaction, but then your link says this:

Quote
A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Any wonder they were scared shitless if that was the earlier mortality rates.

So reasonably confident they are reporting true numbers (not that 2% is good or anything, but its better than 15%!).

Not everyone went to hospital though, some people only had moderate symptoms like 'flu. Only those badly affected ended up in hospital and more of these died.

But that would be the same with flu. The mortality rate for influenza is 0.055% of reported cases. Similarly, lots of people wouldn't report if they had the flu

I don’t understand where 2% is coming from. To date ~43k people confirmed to have got it, 4.3K cured and ~1K dead. That’s close to a 20% kill rate! It has to be based on cured/dead and not based on number of people that got it. There’s still about 38K with it and they could go either way before this is done.

Did you read the link i posted?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I'm no expert, but until someone debunks this site, it seems an interesting source
Hasta la victoria siempre

seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #69 on: February 12, 2020, 09:02:27 AM »
It looks more serious than SARS

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-china-death-toll-latest/

Two more British passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, bringing the total number of Britons infected aboard the vessel to three.

An additional 39 people on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the Japan coast have tested positive for the new coronavirus, bringing the total to 174.
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armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #70 on: February 12, 2020, 07:07:13 PM »
The number of cases of infection with the new coronavirus in China has stabilised, but that apparent slowdown in the epidemic spread should be viewed with "extreme caution", the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) said in Geneva on Wednesday (Feb 12).
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seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #71 on: February 12, 2020, 08:24:06 PM »
https://time.com/5782129/cruise-ship-stranded-coronavirus-fears/

The captain would surely have a level of indignation to surpass  anything that Mickey Harte and the Tyrone boys could come up with.
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armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #72 on: February 16, 2020, 02:54:55 AM »
Chinese government disinfecting used banknotes when they reach banks.


A total of 68,500 people have now been infected, the national health commission said, with most deaths occurring in
Hubei.

Meanwhile, a total of 9,419 patients  had been discharged from hospital after recovery by the end of Saturday. Saturday saw 1,323 people walk out of hospital after recovery, the commission said.

The number of new cases in other parts of the country has dropped for twelve straight days.
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Captain Obvious

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2020, 02:26:22 AM »


AFM

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #74 on: February 18, 2020, 09:45:57 AM »
The quarantine on this cruise ship must be first class, might as well threw them all into the ball room and let them at it, no one is safe on that thing.