26 County General Election 2020

[seafoid]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

Indeed, which is why they can play hardball with FF in the negotiations. A second election suits SF just fine, FF not so much. Mary Lou can demand the Taoiseach's job and MM would be under pressure to let her have it, or face going to the country again and seeing SF pick up maybe 50 odd seats and shutting FF out with a coalition of the left.

Even if FF go into coalition the policies will have to be more left wing.
I wonder what SF's position on the Apple tax might be. €13bn would go a long way towards fixing homelessness and health.

[RedHand88]

He fixshed de road!

He buried your grandfather

[Itchy]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

Indeed, which is why they can play hardball with FF in the negotiations. A second election suits SF just fine, FF not so much. Mary Lou can demand the Taoiseach's job and MM would be under pressure to let her have it, or face going to the country again and seeing SF pick up maybe 50 odd seats and shutting FF out with a coalition of the left.

Even if FF go into coalition the policies will have to be more left wing.
I wonder what SF's position on the Apple tax might be. €13bn would go a long way towards fixing homelessness and health.

Sure wasnt Bertie a socialist, it shouldnt be that hard

[Hound]

The government's position on the €13 billion is somewhat irrelevant.

It's gone to appeal either way. Apple's team are leading their defence. If the government change sides it won't make one iota of a difference to the ultimate outcome of the case. They're pretending they are hoping Apple wins, while in reality I would say they wouldn't mind if they lose! But it does have to be remembered that Apple provide a huge benefit to the economy, particularly in Cork, so there's no point damning them in public, let the court system play out. The EU will not give Apple any easy win.

Again, the reporting on this case hasn't allowed for people to understand it.
Apple's tax ruling they received in 1980 wasn't actually disputed by the EU. The ruling said that 90% of the profits of their Bermudan resident company belonged to Bermuda and 10% belonged to the Bermudan's Irish branch. (Can't remember the exact %, but it was something like that).

The problem for Apple is it seems they didn't do what they said they'd do in the manner they said they would. And the problem for the government is that Revenue didn't audit Apple to ensure they were doing what they said they were doing. Revenue in the 80s was very poorly run, but made slow and steady progress since around the mid 90s and now it's the best run government agency.

The Commission's report that 0% of the profits belonged to Bermuda and 100% to Ireland was very persuading (I was full sure beforehand that Apple would win, other than the % split might change to maybe 80/20 or even 70/30, but certainly not 0/100! - but I hadn't realised the mistakes Apple made) but Apple disagree and the Commission's report is by its nature a bit one-sided. So it will be interesting to see how it goes - but there's nothing to be gained by the government publicly switching sides.

And of course it we do win, many countries in the EU and also the US will demand a big chunk. The EU countries have actually very little basis for claiming anything - they've already got their share and audited Apple for the relevant years. But they are generally extremely aggressive so technical right/wrong won't matter to them. The US would have a claim for the majority of it, but they won't want to hang Apple out to dry any further and would likely do something behind the scenes.

[macdanger2]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

It looks like they'd get 7-8 seats more right now but you'd never know how a campaign would work out, the 15%(?) in the local / European elections shouldn't be forgotten

[Hound]

19 Independents elected so far.  Is that not a bit of a cop out, for the most part just electing someone who'll get you a wee motorway or a new school in your backyard.  Democratic it solves little or nothing for the country.

I completely agree. Fine voting for an Independent in a local election where they can do something or an EU election where they can do as little as anyone else. But IMO it's a shitehawk decision to vote for someone who thinks their way is the only way and there's not single grouping or party out there they're prepared to join with.

Anyone see a list of the 19 independents anywhere with their affiliation or previous affiliation?
SF need all the smaller parties and 12 independents to get 80 seats. Give Ceann Comhairle to FG or FF and they've a majority. Not sure if there's any chance of that but would be interesting to see the list. It's some opportunity, but you'd have to doubt whether they can make it happen.

If Mary Lou can't make that happen then it'll have to be a FF-SF-Green coalition. Or another election!

[Hound]

Quite a few are ex members of a bigger party that fell out for one reason or another but had done work in their area so people stayed with them. There are very few "single issue" independents today like there were before.

That seems bang on itchy.

The Verona Murphy example is a gas one. I heard her a good few times talking about Brexit on Eamon Dunphy's podcast, and she seemed competent, intelligent, etc.

So she joins FG and wants to be a TD. Then she said what she said, did badly in the by-election and got kicked out by FG. (Dunphy interestingly seems to have dumped her too).

So she runs as an Independent. Gets elected. And in her celebratory interview afterwards, she claims she got voted in because "the people wanted change"!

I don't know whether it was FGers who voted for her despite her being kicked out, or (more likely) it was part of the anyone but FF / FG brigade, but either way you'd have to question their choice, and possibly their sanity 

[Angelo]

I'd be surprised if there were another election soon. In theory SF would clean up by fielding more candidates, but in practice it could piss off the voters and hurt the shinners more. They play a long game and they can wait a bit longer for the top job.

I'd say we could be looking at an FF/SF/Green coalition with MM as Taoiseach, MLMcD as Tanaiste, Pearse Doherty somewhere high in the cabinet, maybe as high as Finance Minister, with the greens in some environmentally important portfolio like transport. FF and SF aren't that far apart on the northern question, so it might work for a while at least. Maybe some PBP or SD types in the mix to make the numbers up and give it a good solid majority. Wouldn't be the worst government, although I don't think rainbow coalitions are terribly stable. SF could give it a year or two, find FF up to no good with some brown envelope payment, then pull out of government while still on the moral high ground, and go to the country this time with a decent number of candidates, and this time top the poll with enough seats to form a coalition with someone other than FF/FG.

Whatever about FF's stance Michael Martin is die hard partitionist.

[Rossfan]

Sinn Féin 37, The rest 123.
Most of the Independents are Centre rightish.

[Hound]

Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó'Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)

[Cavan19]

SF will not be able to deliver what they promised and they never expected to do this well.  There whole manifesto was written to be able to snipe from the trenches for 5 years or whatever term the next government was going to be in place.

[johnnycool]

"Up the Ra" hopefully he will be the new minister for justice.

What, are you annoyed that he didn't belt out "Come out ye Black 'n' Tans" as you like to sing about the green and lovely lanes of Killeshandra?

[seafoid]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

It looks like they'd get 7-8 seats more right now but you'd never know how a campaign would work out, the 15%(?) in the local / European elections shouldn't be forgotten

In other countries Euro elections are a chance for voters to let off some steam and not as serious as general elections.

The system seems to be in transition. The number of independents is a sign of a breakdown in discipline in FF and FG.

[Cavan19]

"Up the Ra" hopefully he will be the new minister for justice.

What, are you annoyed that he didn't belt out "Come out ye Black 'n' Tans" as you like to sing about the green and lovely lanes of Killeshandra?

Annoyed?

[macdanger2]

Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó'Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)

A lot of those independents would change their left/right leanings if there was something on the table