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What will be makeup of the next government?

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FF/Lab/Green/Independents

Author Topic: 26 County General Election 2020  (Read 8856 times)

Rossfan

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #45 on: January 12, 2020, 07:01:01 PM »
How do we reverse or equalise things between the BMW and the East/South/Southeast?
Google, Apple or Intel arent going to set up or move to Elphin or Ballyjamesduff.
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Mayo4Sam

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #46 on: January 13, 2020, 08:38:37 AM »
How do we reverse or equalise things between the BMW and the East/South/Southeast?
Google, Apple or Intel arent going to set up or move to Elphin or Ballyjamesduff.

Well one of them would have been in Ballinasloe but for planning

I know it was only a data centre but it helps


We do have a lot of pharma and manufacturing in the west. Much better companies to have as they give a good mixture of high and low skilled labour and they provide secondary employment, lots of local companies that provide niche products to these.
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magpie seanie

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #47 on: January 13, 2020, 03:33:22 PM »
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.
I understand your sentiments completely, albeit I think some of it is a bit misguided, and I'd love to hear what your alternative to MNCs is!

Apple are here 40 years. There are scores of tech and pharma companies who are here now 20 years. I don't know exactly how many are here over 10 years, but it's well over 100, providing tens of thousands of long term well paid jobs.

Barring the Apple case which is debatable (they have a different structure to all the other tech cos, which I can explain if anyone is bored enough to want to know), every company pays their fair share of Irish tax on Irish profits. 12.5%.
The 2.5% you hear about sometimes from negligent media is absolute nonsense.

Whatever you want to say about FF, their tax policies to attract MNCs was brilliant and really successful. Whatever you want to say about FG, their tax policies have been better again. Our offering to companies looking to move away from havens has been spectacularly successful. And its driven by substance. Ireland does not work from a tax perspective, unless the MNCs bring substance and people. Jobs.

The tax take from corporation tax last year was phenomenal. A one-off many are saying. But this year will blow that out of the water as will the following year. 2021 will be the high point, as EU /OECD rules will push some of the tax elsewhere, but we'll still end up with a good share. There'll be no EU country with a better tax system, albeit we do need to monitor Eastern Europe (and hope that Scotland doesn't gain independence!).

It will be key that we don't blow the 2020/2021 windfalls. Whatever chance we have of FF or FG not spending everything, would you really trust Labour/SD/Greens not to spend it all?

I do think we tax our entrepreneurs too highly. These people also provide hugely valuable employment. While their companies are also taxed at 12.5%, when they take out money themselves, they are being taxed at 53%-55% on their marginal income. It's not a great encouragement for people to work harder when more than half of anything extra they earn goes in tax.

Why do you say working class are being screwed over? Lower paid workers in Ireland pay the lowest tax in the EU.

Health service is 100% a mess. My own mother had a horrific experience this year where she was sent home because a young doctor in Beaumont's primary objective seemed to be not to give her a bed, and it was a miracle it didn't cause her catastrophic injury. Back into A&E where she suffered utter humiliation for 48 hours, before being operated on by a master/genius to give her some chance of a normal life going forward.

Health service isn't a mess because FF and FG haven't thrown buckets of money at it. Some ministers have gone at it with the absolute best intentions but realised they were pishing into the wind. It's a not mess due to our doctors and nurses, who are generally very good. What it needs is a complete rip it up and start again approach. But that would mean lots of admin staff in the health service losing their job or being routed elsewhere. This can't and won't be let happen. Because of union power.
Would that improve under Lab/SD/Greens?


Apologies for the delay in replying, was busy with a few things over the weekend. I got halfway through one reply and had to go and lost the post.

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Working people are screwed over because they DO pay their fair share of taxes and can't avoid it. They pay relatively high rates of tax on income which is deducted at source. If you have kids you know that "free" education is not a reality. Heath system a mess means most feel they have to have Medical Insurance to ensure they get treated on time. Illegal VRT on cars, high VAT rates - I could go on. Those on higher rates of income pay the same marginal rate of tax which is crazy. Tax rates are graduated for a reason and then it stops. Unlike many who are conditioned to think otherwise, the numbers of people of State benefits doesn't bother me. The money spent on this pales into insignificance when you compare it to tax evasion/avoidance. That's where our primary focus should be. It's not surprise to me that in an era where tax rates are under scrutiny we amazingly have higher tax revenues despite not the best economic conditions.

On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).

Rossfan

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2020, 11:28:58 AM »
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.
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dublin7

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2020, 11:45:40 AM »
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.

He new FG wouldn't win the no confidence vote so called the election to avoid the embarrassment of defeat.

Why would he call it for a Saturday? Friday was an ideal day as you had the weekend for the bloodsports of watching all the election results coming in.

Election is on the same day as Ireland v Wales in 6 nations in Dublin, but I doubt Leo was aware of that. I wonder will our wonderful sports minister go to the Aviva for the game??

Owenmoresider

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2020, 12:03:49 PM »
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.

He new FG wouldn't win the no confidence vote so called the election to avoid the embarrassment of defeat.

Why would he call it for a Saturday? Friday was an ideal day as you had the weekend for the bloodsports of watching all the election results coming in.

Election is on the same day as Ireland v Wales in 6 nations in Dublin, but I doubt Leo was aware of that. I wonder will our wonderful sports minister go to the Aviva for the game??
He might as well, get to see a few mauls before he himself is mauled the next day.

LooseCannon

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2020, 12:13:17 PM »
So, what are the predictions seats-wise?

armaghniac

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2020, 12:14:08 PM »
My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

The alternative may not be one thing, but a number of different things. Work is needed to develop multiple measures, each of which can make a contribution.

Quote
12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.


There is no particular logic for corporation tax at all, tax should come when human beings receive the money. However, given that corporation tax exists,  then the Irish model of a lowish rate with few exemptions is a reasonable one. It may be the case that big companies are more lightly taxed than the local business, and this cannot be justified.

Quote
Working people are screwed over because they DO pay their fair share of taxes and can't avoid it. They pay relatively high rates of tax on income which is deducted at source. If you have kids you know that "free" education is not a reality. Heath system a mess means most feel they have to have Medical Insurance to ensure they get treated on time. Illegal VRT on cars, high VAT rates - I could go on. Those on higher rates of income pay the same marginal rate of tax which is crazy. Tax rates are graduated for a reason and then it stops. Unlike many who are conditioned to think otherwise, the numbers of people of State benefits doesn't bother me. The money spent on this pales into insignificance when you compare it to tax evasion/avoidance. That's where our primary focus should be. It's not surprise to me that in an era where tax rates are under scrutiny we amazingly have higher tax revenues despite not the best economic conditions.

Many people do not pay tax or receive more than they pay. This is appropriate in a social democratic society, but it also leads to a lot of votes from people not really interested in reforming the system.

Quote
On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).

Unions are blamed, but the real problem is a  lack of clarity of thought at management level. In general, there are efficient parts of the public service and less  efficient parts and they have much the same union agreements. But there is never any discussion of efficiency and no real reward for improving it.
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Shamrock Shore

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #53 on: January 14, 2020, 12:27:58 PM »
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

Rossfan

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2020, 12:38:52 PM »
And a FF/ SF/ Green Government Sham?
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seafoid

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #55 on: January 14, 2020, 01:11:48 PM »
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile
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Owenmoresider

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #56 on: January 14, 2020, 01:30:16 PM »
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19
FF 57
FG 48
SF 18
GRN 9
LAB 7
PBP/LEFT 3
SD's 2
Others 16

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #57 on: January 14, 2020, 01:53:33 PM »
I don't know a lot(embarrassed to say) about ROI politics, what is the most likely make up of the government?

Hound

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #58 on: January 14, 2020, 02:37:15 PM »

All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon.

On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).
I’m far from an expert on the health service and can only go on my experiences.
The story I told above was about a person who has had private health insurance for the last 40 years. No help whatsoever when you’re lying incapacitated on a trolley in Beaumont A&E! 

But I was involved in the financial side of a private hospital for a while. Extremely well run and profitable. Could pay front line staff well, could fire under-performers, didn’t have reams of middle management clogging up resources and adding no value. Unions willing to engage in a process that would see dead wood removed? I'm not so sure.

Tax hamonisation
- Rate harmonisation is not happening. Ever.

- There was a proposal doing the rounds for the last few years called CCCTB. Basically a tool where taxable profits would have nothing to do with the accounts of a company and they’d come up with a formula based on where customers of companies live. You could have a situation where the Irish company has 70% of the group’s European profits and another 30 countries have 1% each. CCCTB would disregard and give Ireland say 5% and divvy up the 95% among everyone else. Ireland would still tax at 12.5% but on a much small base. Turns out Germany would be a net loser if CCTB would be implemented, so it’ll never be implemented with them not supporting it.

- Digital Services Tax (DST) is where it’s really at in terms of seeking more tax on big MNCs. A straight 2 or 3% tax on revenues earned from customers in specific countries. It was supposed to be brought in on a worldwide or even European basis but some countries have jumped the gun. France, Italy, UK, Austria and Turkey have already brought it in or are about to bring it in. This will hit the MNCs hard, but whether it will impact Ireland’s tax take is hard to say. As I said before we'll have gangbusters CT take in 2020 and 2021, then it will decrease a bit. But I still think it'll be very strong and won't go below 2018 levels, perhaps even 2019 levels might be sustainable. I don’t think DST will have a significant impact on Ireland’s competitiveness, but it does bring uncertainty and we’ll need to see how it plays out.

armaghniac

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Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« Reply #59 on: January 14, 2020, 03:08:48 PM »
- There was a proposal doing the rounds for the last few years called CCCTB. Basically a tool where taxable profits would have nothing to do with the accounts of a company and they’d come up with a formula based on where customers of companies live. You could have a situation where the Irish company has 70% of the group’s European profits and another 30 countries have 1% each. CCCTB would disregard and give Ireland say 5% and divvy up the 95% among everyone else. Ireland would still tax at 12.5% but on a much small base. Turns out Germany would be a net loser if CCTB would be implemented, so it’ll never be implemented with them not supporting it.

The point is that countries are quick to talk about Google, but this concept does not only apply to Google. If Irish people buy a Mercedes car or Chanel perfume, and they have bought more of these luxury goods as the country has become richer, then the profit from those products lies in France or Germany and they don't think that is a problem.
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