Author Topic: Westminster Election 12th December 2019  (Read 78779 times)

yellowcard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3493
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1095 on: December 09, 2019, 01:49:49 PM »
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.


Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend.
And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24125
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1096 on: December 09, 2019, 02:17:34 PM »
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker
Lookit

bennydorano

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5410
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1097 on: December 09, 2019, 02:22:23 PM »
One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

playwiththewind1st

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1210
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1098 on: December 09, 2019, 02:44:27 PM »
One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

See these Greeks & their fancy ideas, eh? Unfortunately, they didn't leave us a mechanism for disenfranchising the intellectually enfeebled, when they laid down their principles of democracy. A big oversight.

Jeepers Creepers

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1164
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1099 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:14 PM »
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker
My point being young people and social media will not get Labour into power. You dont have to buy a paper, the headlines on most of the red tops (with their anti-labour Bias) you see standing in line at the shop are enough to persude the average Joe who does not sit on twitter all day to vote for the Torys.

Walter Cronc

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3524
  • UTW!
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1100 on: December 09, 2019, 03:27:37 PM »
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.


Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend.
And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

It tells me a good half of the Brits are horrible racist f*cks. Its only a few centuries ago the savaged half the world so its in them somewhere!

bennydorano

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5410
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1101 on: December 09, 2019, 04:46:27 PM »
One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

See these Greeks & their fancy ideas, eh? Unfortunately, they didn't leave us a mechanism for disenfranchising the intellectually enfeebled, when they laid down their principles of democracy. A big oversight.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
HL Mencken

yellowcard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3493
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1102 on: December 09, 2019, 04:52:37 PM »
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.


Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend.
And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

It tells me a good half of the Brits are horrible racist f*cks. Its only a few centuries ago the savaged half the world so its in them somewhere!

I think the Brexit referendum itself confirmed that. They appear to be about to vote into power though the most far right government since the Thatcher days and who knows what type of further cuts they will try and implement at the expense of public services. It is a potentially very dangerous government and I suspect that a lot of their promises will go out the window the minute that they are elected.

easytiger95

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1248
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1103 on: December 09, 2019, 05:00:46 PM »
Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24125
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1104 on: December 09, 2019, 05:04:33 PM »
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker
My point being young people and social media will not get Labour into power. You dont have to buy a paper, the headlines on most of the red tops (with their anti-labour Bias) you see standing in line at the shop are enough to persude the average Joe who does not sit on twitter all day to vote for the Torys.
The Tories have to win. The others don't.
Brexit hasn't won an election since 2016
Lookit

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24125
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1105 on: December 09, 2019, 05:06:14 PM »
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.


Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....
Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.
I think it's different since the Scottish ref after which Labour collapsed in Scotland.
Labout plus the SNP are currently 20 seats behind the Tories .
Lookit

Saffrongael

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 583
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1106 on: December 09, 2019, 05:08:21 PM »
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker

What happened the right wing media conspiracy where everyone is being fed the Daily Mail every day and people canít make their own minds up on issues ? You have done quite the pivot

yellowcard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3493
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1107 on: December 09, 2019, 06:10:28 PM »
Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

balladmaker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1341
  • Irish To The Core!
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1108 on: December 09, 2019, 06:28:29 PM »
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.


Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....
Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.
I think it's different since the Scottish ref after which Labour collapsed in Scotland.
Labout plus the SNP are currently 20 seats behind the Tories .


Nail on head .... and that's the exact reason why Scottish Independence will ensure a continuous Tory government in the UK for generations to come.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24125
    • View Profile
Re: Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« Reply #1109 on: December 09, 2019, 06:42:24 PM »
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker

What happened the right wing media conspiracy where everyone is being fed the Daily Mail every day and people canít make their own minds up on issues ? You have done quite the pivot
I read the Torygraph and get the Mail on Sunday and most of the political
stuff in both is bollocks. People are being lied to. There isnít going to be a boom
after Brexit because there is a liquidity trap. Labour arenít any more anti Semitic than the Tories. The Tories purged their moderates but are portrayed as middle of the road. If the Tories did win a majority the UK would suffer.
Lookit