Author Topic: Westminster Election 12th December 2019  (Read 24263 times)

Ambrose

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Westminster Election 12th December 2019
« on: October 29, 2019, 02:24:04 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 06:48:15 PM by Ambrose »
You can't live off history and tradition forever

t_mac

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 02:29:40 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?

Probably no nationalist representation again in any institution in which they have a vote.

marty34

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 02:35:37 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?

When is the RHI report out?

red hander

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 02:44:18 PM »
Would love to see the loyalist gunrunning terrorist's bike of a daughter out on her ear, that would be nice.

WT4E

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 02:49:08 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?

When is the RHI report out?

Expected in November - so any day now unless DUP/UDA get it delayed

marty34

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?

When is the RHI report out?

Expected in November - so any day now unless DUP/UDA get it delayed

It'll hardly make any difference - they'll say Save the Union Vote DUP anyway and they'll return 9 or 10.

Key point is whether, they'll be needed after the election.

bennydorano

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 03:19:17 PM »
Hopefully the DUP will lose their influence in Parliament no matter what, I'd rather see a Tory majority than a repeat of the last couple of years.

UK wide it should be very interesting, bound to be near impossible for Pollsters to predict with so many unknowns. It's not long ago they were talking about giving a unity remainer candidate a clear run in the PM's constituency of Uxbridge!

Taylor

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 03:44:12 PM »
Hopefully the DUP will lose their influence in Parliament no matter what, I'd rather see a Tory majority than a repeat of the last couple of years.

UK wide it should be very interesting, bound to be near impossible for Pollsters to predict with so many unknowns. It's not long ago they were talking about giving a unity remainer candidate a clear run in the PM's constituency of Uxbridge!

Here in NI I suspect it will be same old same old.
Expect the next few weeks to be a barrage of 'themmuns' and saving the union. Mindnumbing.

Across the water I seriously hope Johnston gets fucked out on his ear.

The amount of shite he has said and been involved might make Trump blush but nothing is sticking unfortunately or more likely the media/papers are failing to report it sufficiently which means the masses are none the wiser

johnnycool

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2019, 04:02:56 PM »
This is the bit I don't get.

A Unionist pact is to strengthen the union but a Nationalist pact is just turning the election into a sectarian headcount.

Has the Remain ship sailed in the HOC?

It's either BoJo's deal or no Deal as far as I can see.

seafoid

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2019, 04:15:23 PM »
This is the bit I don't get.

A Unionist pact is to strengthen the union but a Nationalist pact is just turning the election into a sectarian headcount.

Has the Remain ship sailed in the HOC?

It's either BoJo's deal or no Deal as far as I can see.
Remain has been polling well ahead of Leave for the last 3 years
Johnson is taking a huge risk

Ashcroft polled people in NI on Brexit back in September

97% of nationalists and 12% of Huns said it was important for the UK to Remain.

But that was before Boris Johnson shafted the DUP and put the customs border in between Ballymena and Birmingham.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/
Lookit

omaghjoe

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2019, 04:33:27 PM »
This is the bit I don't get.

A Unionist pact is to strengthen the union but a Nationalist pact is just turning the election into a sectarian headcount.

Has the Remain ship sailed in the HOC?

It's either BoJo's deal or no Deal as far as I can see.
Remain has been polling well ahead of Leave for the last 3 years
Johnson is taking a huge risk

Ashcroft polled people in NI on Brexit back in September

97% of nationalists and 12% of Huns said it was important for the UK to Remain.

But that was before Boris Johnson shafted the DUP and put the customs border in between Ballymena and Birmingham.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

Which is the bit I dont really get, makes me think that they have something up their sleeve?
in saying that BoJo will have a thirst for elections as he thinks he can campaign well and he has always done well at the polls. The Tories are the leading party at the polls, they are going up against a divided bunch on the remain side, while only the Brexit party can hurt them on Brexit... or maybe the DUP will be running those ads again
Also Cummings will be leading the campaign no doubt so he will have thought about the scenarios and have the manipulative tricks ready to go
There is a difference this time in that they are the incumbents and poll leader so they will have to win from the front. Also their opponents  know all about them and should be ready... tho wouldn't count on it.

On a serious note tho will BoJo be running in Ruislip seems like a risky enough seat?

lurganblue

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2019, 04:41:38 PM »
MPs to vote for an amendment giving 16 and 17-year olds and EU nationals the vote... cant see that passing. If it does there'll be no election for ages.

Caitlin

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2019, 06:02:28 PM »
The way I see it;

SDLP will run candidates in all constituencies but not put much effort in to the seats currently held by SF, North Belfast, East Belfast or the clear cut DUP seats.
SF will run in all constituencies.
UUP will run in all seats but more effort in where they have a chance- South Antrim and Upper Bann.
DUP will run in all constituencies.
Alliance and the Greens may do some trading to allow Alliance free run in East Belfast - and possibly allow Danny Kinahan and Sylvia Hermon free runs in South Antrim and North Down.

The greatest chance of a change to current position is in;
South Belfast- Claire Hanna is an excellent candidate for SDLP and if SF have any sense they will run a light campaign- the only challenge to this will be O'Muilleor's ego, which is considerable.
North Belfast-John Finucane is also an excellent candidate but won't take his seat so may not attract so much support across the board
Foyle- Colum Eastwood must be in with a chance
East Belfast- Naomi Long is an excellent candidate and has a strong chance
South Antrim- Danny Kinahan has a strong chance
North Down - Sylvia Hermon is an excellent candidate but will be under pressure
South Down- Chris Hazard will be too strong for whoever SDLP put up- pity SF don't take their seats.

In an ideal world-
DUP lose 4 seats cutting their representation to 6
SF retain all seats bar Foyle , pick up N Belfast and take their seats- total of 7 allows them to claim they're the biggest party.
SDLP claim back Foyle and South Belfast - total of 2
UUP claim back South Antrim- 1
Alliance pick up East Belfast- 1
Sylvia holds North Down- 1

Belfast has no unionist MPs
Boris has no majority
Labour do well enough but gets rid of Corbyn and elect a decent leader who understands Ireland- Conor McGinn would be good!
Lib Dems do well
Brexit party disappears
UK parliament votes to have a second referendum which ends up 70% for remain

I can but dream


t_mac

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2019, 06:21:21 PM »
MPs to vote for an amendment giving 16 and 17-year olds and EU nationals the vote... cant see that passing. If it does there'll be no election for ages.

Bojo said he will pull bill if this is passed.

Orior

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Re: UK General Election December 2019
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2019, 06:34:50 PM »
Like a dog returning to its own vomit, voters in the North look set to go to the polls for a third time this year.

As things currently stand the DUP hold 10 seats, SF 7 and Independent Unionist 1.

What changes, if any, can we expect to see after yet another election. Will the SDLP step aside in north Belfast and give Finucane a clear run? Can the current loyalist weapons dump withstand the tidal wave of support for Naomi Long in south Belfast. What other changes are possible throughout the six counties between now and Election Day?

When is the RHI report out?

Expected in November - so any day now unless DUP/UDA get it delayed

It'll hardly make any difference - they'll say Save the Union Vote DUP anyway and they'll return 9 or 10.

Key point is whether, they'll be needed after the election.

And so will the weather.
Cover me in chocolate and feed me to the lesbians