16 teams in round 1
Leitrim
Monaghan
Down
Derry
Antrim or Tyrone
Fermanagh or Donegal
Tipperary
Waterford
Offaly
Wexford
Louth or Dublin
Longford or Kildare
Carlow or Meath
Laois v Westmeath
London
Wicklow
Looking at the overall performances of the teams from Division 3 and Division 4 this year, you'd nearly swear these teams were doing their best to strengthen the case for a 2nd tier.
Leitrim - Division 4
Monaghan - Division 1
Down - Division 3
Derry - Division 4
Antrim or Tyrone - Division 4 or Division 1
Fermanagh or Donegal - Division 2 or Division 2
Tipperary - Division 2
Waterford - Division 4
Offaly - Division 3
Wexford - Division 4
Louth or Dublin - Division 3 or Division 1
Longford or Kildare - Division 3 or Division 2
Carlow or Meath - Division 3 or Division 2
Laois v Westmeath - Division 3 or Division 3
London - Division 4
Wicklow - Division 4
At the moment 8 out of the bottom 16 in the league this year are confirmed to be in the first round of the qualifiers.
Limerick are still in the championship proper due to their win over Tipperary.
Sligo were always going to avoid the first round of the qualifiers due to the nature of the Connacht provincial draw. They will be in round 2 after a 13 point loss to Galway.
One of Laois and Westmeath will be in the first round of the qualifiers and one won't as the draw pitted them against each other.
Antrim will be in the first round of the qualifiers if they don't beat Tyrone - 1/200 to qualify for the next round
Carlow will be in the first round of the qualifiers if they don't beat Meath - 1/10 to qualify for the next round
Longford will be in the first round of the qualifiers if they don't beat Kildare - 3/10 to qualify for the next round
Louth will be in the first round of the qualifiers if they don't beat Dublin - No odds for Dublin qualifying for the next round - Dublin 1/100 to win
So most likely looking at a situation where 13 of the 16 teams from Division 3 and Division 4 will be in the first round of the qualifiers.
Of the remaining 3 teams, 2 (Sligo and one of Laois or Westmeath) were never going to be there because of the way the provincial draws went, with Limerick being the only one who avoided the first round of the qualifiers due to their performance on the pitch.