Author Topic: Elections North and South  (Read 32313 times)

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #120 on: May 05, 2019, 09:11:52 AM »
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

marty34

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #121 on: May 05, 2019, 10:12:43 AM »
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isnít all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU. 

smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #122 on: May 05, 2019, 11:44:44 AM »
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isnít all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered

smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #123 on: May 05, 2019, 11:48:33 AM »
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

The European elections (if they go ahead) will be another test. Unless you are a hardcore leaver it would be brainless to not vote Alliance No1

Rossfan

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #124 on: May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM »
Why so?
1 BIG CUP and 1 Cupeen so far....

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #125 on: May 05, 2019, 12:14:25 PM »
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

The European elections (if they go ahead) will be another test. Unless you are a hardcore leaver it would be brainless to not vote Alliance No1

+1

smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #126 on: May 05, 2019, 12:26:40 PM »
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #127 on: May 05, 2019, 12:43:51 PM »
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

Jeez are you in the Alliance or something? I like Long but she only looks good because most of the rest are so bad. Eastwood is as good and as articulate and Anderson believe it or not is quite well respected in  many other countries maybe when the sound is off and the message is dubbed in another language she is actually ok😀

marty34

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #128 on: May 05, 2019, 03:25:52 PM »
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isnít all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered

Long's not there so she's no good watching on from sideline - no good saying she'd be more articulate, she'd be more this or that.

Hurlers on the ditch are not much use in Europe.

marty34

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #129 on: May 05, 2019, 03:32:22 PM »
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

You're getting carried away with Alliance's results yesterday a chara.  Settle!

Fionntamhnach

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #130 on: May 05, 2019, 05:01:29 PM »
SDLP already knew the losses to expect where defections had occurred since 2014. Dealt with well in BCC but not well in other areas. Serious failure in F&O.  Derry being hauled back from SF will be a plus but defections by electorate to Alliance now a battle on a second front a major worry. FF factor seems not to have been a major problem. EU election will be true examination with the Alliance momentum and Long factor a worry for Eastwood.

The SDLP performance in the old Omagh DC area was a disaster. Back in 2014 they had four elected in the area out of eight in total for FODC. Since then however three of them left the party over various issues. This time they stood two candidates in Omagh town, one in Mid-Tyrone and one in West Tyrone and they only got one elected, Mary Garrity retaining her seat in West Tyrone. Rosemary Shields was the SDLP rep in Mid-Tyrone, but left several months ago to join Aontu fighting to retain her seat on their ticket but lost out, while the sole SDLP candidate (Bernard McGrath) also failed to keep party representation there.

Omagh town having no longer any SDLP councillors is a calamity for them. They had two back in 2014, Josephine Deehan and Joanne Donnelly, but both left the party not long after. Deehan has a good personal vote that took her over the line to retain her seat as an independent this time, but Donnelly lost hers. The SDLP fielded two fairly young & rather unknown candidates with neither succeeding. It's a major downfall for a party whom only one to two generations ago could have counted Omagh as a stronghold, but the problems locally in the party have been running for decades now with numerous elected party reps leaving the party whilst in office. Had they just ran one candidate in the town this time they might have had an outside chance of sneaking in, but it would not have surprised me if ego was again a problem in doing this. It's one place where Colum Eastwood needs to look at getting sorted sooner rather than later otherwise his party is going to become an irrelevance in what is the second largest population centre west of the Bann.
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smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #131 on: May 05, 2019, 05:02:12 PM »
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isnít all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered

Long's not there so she's no good watching on from sideline - no good saying she'd be more articulate, she'd be more this or that.

Hurlers on the ditch are not much use in Europe.

I assume you yourself worked out the complete stupidity of that line of argument and only posted it as a misguided attempt at humour

smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #132 on: May 05, 2019, 05:07:14 PM »
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

Jeez are you in the Alliance or something? I like Long but she only looks good because most of the rest are so bad. Eastwood is as good and as articulate and Anderson believe it or not is quite well respected in  many other countries maybe when the sound is off and the message is dubbed in another language she is actually ok😀

Voting for one candidate because they look better than the others due to the fact that they are in fact better than the others seems logical enough

What evidence is there that Anderson is respected? My understanding is that the bloc she is attached to donít use her for any key responsibilities. Even on the Irish border issue they give her no role and she has to wait her slot in the speaking rounds

smelmoth

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #133 on: May 05, 2019, 05:10:11 PM »
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

You're getting carried away with Alliance's results yesterday a chara.  Settle!

Not getting carried away. There is a long way to go.

But ther is a bit of momentum and a vastly superior candidate. Anderson and Dodds might appear shoe ins but they are exceptionally poor candidates. In no other country or region could they even dream of being elected

armaghniac

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Re: Elections North and South
« Reply #134 on: May 05, 2019, 05:16:00 PM »
Eastwood could do a fine job, but Long is more likely to be elected.
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