Author Topic: Various bits re Brexit and Economics  (Read 23806 times)

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #180 on: May 21, 2020, 11:23:40 AM »
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/21/british-cats-dogs-ferrets-will-need-eu-pet-passport-travel-northern/

British cats, dogs and ferrets will need an EU pet passport to travel to Northern Ireland after Brexit
The internal “pet border” in the UK from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement

The creation of an internal “pet border” in the United Kingdom from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement Boris Johnson negotiated with Brussels.

That deal effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs territory and moves the border between it and the Republic to the Irish Sea to prevent the need for inflammatory checks on the border after Brexit.

The EU’s Pet Travel Scheme allows for the free movement of cats, dogs and ferrets in the bloc without the need for quarantine.  A quarter of a million British pets use their passports to travel in the EU every year, according to the European Commission.

Joe Moran is deputy coordinator of the UK-EU Animal Welfare Taskforce and works for the Eurogroup for Animals, an umbrella organisation for 70 animal welfare charities.

“You can't refer to the UK at all in this case as a single unit any more,” he said. “Pet passports will be needed between Great Britain and Northern Ireland."
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RedHand88

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #181 on: May 21, 2020, 01:03:49 PM »
Know someone who got pulled about bringing the dog to Donegal. Couldn't believe it, had no idea it was a thing.

five points

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #182 on: May 21, 2020, 04:32:35 PM »
Know someone who got pulled about bringing the dog to Donegal. Couldn't believe it, had no idea it was a thing.

Ridiculous. In normal times our dog crosses the border at least every fortnight.

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #183 on: June 02, 2020, 08:51:13 AM »

   https://www.ft.com/content/d60cdc40-9fec-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

   
https://www.ft.com/content/d60cdc40-9fec-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

A permanent state in which the equilibrium nominal interest rate throughout the developed world is at or below the central bank policy rate is, to put it mildly, really worrying.

There are three possible consequences of this.

The first is that the world could be stuck at zero. All the advanced economies may follow the example of Japan since 2016, with interest rates across the entire yield curve stuck at zero, and fiscal policy battling against a continuous rise in government debt ratios. For asset markets, this would represent a low-return world, with demand management becoming increasingly hamstrung in recurring recessions.

With the second, we could have permanent fiscal stimulus and rising debt. Before the full effects of the ­virus became apparent, Paul Krugman suggested that the US should permanently increase public investment and the budget deficit by 2 per cent of gross domestic product, with the debt ratio eventually rising to 200 per cent of GDP. This would increase equilibrium interest rates, raising the average level of policy rates and bond yields. The yield curve would shift higher and adopt a more normal upward slope, allowing more scope for easing during recessions.

By reversing the trend decline in interest rates, this policy may result in an immediate period of negative returns for both bonds and equities, though the long-term effects are less clear.

And the third could give us very negative interest rates. Japan and the eurozone have attempted to increase scope for active monetary policy by reducing policy rates slightly below zero, eventually dragging bond yields into negative territory. However, as Kenneth Rogoff has argued, this policy could only succeed if pursued far more aggressively, taking policy rates to minus 3 per cent, or even lower, in recessions. By extending the decades-long downward trend in interest rates, this approach would probably prolong high returns from both bonds and equities.

The political feasibility of these extremely radical fiscal and monetary policy changes seems highly questionable.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 11:14:03 AM by seafoid »
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seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #184 on: June 07, 2020, 08:19:42 AM »
Adam Payne

@adampayne26

New: The potential impact of the Northern Ireland protocol is becoming clearer - and it’s alarming - Major retailers, including a big supermarket, are considering leaving NI, I’m told - New costs & price rises are set to hit poorest families the hardest

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-border-checks-force-retailers-consider-pull-out-northern-ireland-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
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seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #185 on: June 30, 2020, 09:44:27 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159

Headwinds are continuing to build for sterling, said Mr Sharma, given the year-end deadline for finalising the EU trade relationship and the country’s persistent current account deficit. “We believe sterling is in the process of evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem similar to more liquid [emerging market] currencies,” he said.

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armaghniac

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #186 on: June 30, 2020, 09:46:23 AM »
I have a bill in Sterling, perhaps it will oblige and fall quickly.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #187 on: June 30, 2020, 11:16:54 AM »
I have a bill in Sterling, perhaps it will oblige and fall quickly.
The emerging market union
The tragedy of the unionists is being attached to the fading UK
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marty34

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #188 on: June 30, 2020, 11:39:21 AM »
What way will the pound go against the euro?

Will it get to parity where 1 euro = 1 pound stg?

bennydorano

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #189 on: June 30, 2020, 05:12:26 PM »
Depends on what you read, the dislike of the UK crosses many barriers and influences an awful amount of articles. I've been reading articles that have stated a trade deal is highly likely to be agreed in principle before the end of Summer (with a real deadline of Halloween), then you've articles by the likes of Tony Blair briefing that he's been told the EU 100% expect no deal.

If a trade deal is agreed Sterling will track back upwards, assuming the worst of Covid is behind the UK. Trying to spend their way out of post-covid recession rather than through austerity is a bit of a gamble(tho i see he hasn't ruled out tax rises) as far as conservative money markets are concerned but no major power or bloc is in a great position bar maybe China, the money markets need the old guard for stability in uncertain times, I wouldn't back against STG in the long run.

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #190 on: June 30, 2020, 06:59:56 PM »
The current account deficit is a fact. The UK is living beyond its means.
Brexit will reduce living standards.

Sterling is pricing this in.
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bennydorano

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #191 on: June 30, 2020, 08:14:36 PM »
You're applying sound economic principles to playing a roulette wheel tho. Money markets are as much about confidence & stability as the tangible economic facts. The UK Government hasn't been covering itself in glory by any measure lately tho, so a Stg collapse is a definite possibility in the current volatility but I wouldn't bet against it in the medium to long term.

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #192 on: September 10, 2020, 10:26:34 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/351fe714-cc87-4b36-8562-fcd3533fff45

Britain’s Conservatives have long prided themselves as being the party of law and order. Now, after an extraordinary admission in parliament, it seems they are the party of “specific and limited” law and order.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the Brexit argument, breaching an international treaty — one that Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed — is a dangerous moment for his party and the country. This instance may be limited and specific. The principle is not.
But Mr Johnson’s team is also driven by fury over the 2019 Supreme Court ruling declaring his suspension of parliament illegal.
In all the institutions this government wishes to reform — the courts, the independent civil service or the BBC — there are defects and deficiencies which any government is entitled to address.
But critics have long discerned a systematic attack on the vital checks and balances of the state, to remove impediments to its will.


The danger — one highlighted in the row over parliament’s suspension — is that Mr Johnson’s circle actually believes it is the government, rather than parliament, that is sovereign.

UK Conservatives are thus facing their Trump moment. This will not be the last time they face such a challenge from a government whose disdain for parliament and process is apparent.

If laws can be broken for reasons of inconvenience, which others might the government choose to disregard?
https://www.ft.com/content/351fe714-cc87-4b36-8562-fcd3533fff45

 the only way to prevent this trend accelerating is to show that parliament truly is sovereign and that it stands for the rule of law.
Boris Johnson’s government has been presenting the UK as a champion of liberal democracy. Ministers talk about convening a new “club of democracies”, adding nations such as Japan and Australia to the existing G7 group. They have overlooked something. Raising the standard for democracy requires a commitment to the rule of law.
Officials in the legal service privately counter it was driven by the prime minister’s ideological objections to a residual EU role in British affairs post-Brexit.

The reputation of the British courts for unshakeable independence and incorruptibility have made London a global centre for litigation . Legal services have been a valuable export — both in financial and soft power terms.
. For the prime minister, what matters is getting his way. He showed this last year when he broke the law by proroguing parliament to defuse opposition to his Brexit strategy.
The potential complications for Northern Ireland of a failure to reach an overall trade deal were known before the withdrawal agreement was signed. Mr Johnson put his hands over his ears: it could be sorted out later.
Respect for the rule of law is the vital line of separation between democracy and authoritarianism.
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Rossfan

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #193 on: September 10, 2020, 10:54:18 AM »
Around 50 Conservative MPs need to vote against this if it's to be stopped.
The DUPUDA will vote for it of course.
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mouview

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