Poll

Are you in favour of repealing the 8th amendment?

Yes
47 (21.8%)
Yes but have no vote
73 (33.8%)
No
40 (18.5%)
No but have no vote
36 (16.7%)
Undecided
20 (9.3%)

Total Members Voted: 216

Voting closed: May 24, 2018, 03:36:55 PM

Author Topic: Eighth Amendment poll  (Read 29451 times)

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21879
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #975 on: May 28, 2018, 09:40:22 AM »
The last two referenda in the South shines a light on how the Catholic Church and its doctrine has lost its stranglehold on Ireland, probably more than I'd imagined.
The cultural identity formed after 1922 is no longer valid. Diarmuid Ferriter the historian was on Radio 1 talking about it a while ago. It was catholic, absolute and based on opposition to Englishness. Irish identity is more nuanced that that in reality. Loads of things have changed. Even QE2 speaking Irish in Dublin.

Bit more tricky in NI where education is catholic and identity is formed in opposition to the alien identity of the state.
Those biscuits are for the visitors

magpie seanie

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11856
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #976 on: May 28, 2018, 09:52:36 AM »
The real test will be FG’s ability to bring in legislation to allow abortion to be carried out and how limited the legislation will be.

TDs will be looking over their shoulders at the electorate before voting on legislation given the proximity of an election.

The proposed legislation is there and can be read by anyone. The politicians will press ahead with that, given the massive mandate they have received.

Except most FF supporters voted No and this puts pressure on their TDs who were mostly No.

The practicalities of legislation are the reality of the situation as all medical organisations now will have a say and medics begin to assess their roles on the frontline of provision.

Where did you see most FF supporters voted no Owen? Given the 66/33 result, I'd be amazed if any party had a majority voting No? I think a No vote was basewd on philosophical grounds rather than party politics.


I think the RTE exit poll did state that the majority of voters who said they'd vote FF in a GE voted No. However, several FF TD's that campaigned for a No vote have stated over the weekend that they'll support the legislation and the will of the people. To be fair - who would these FF "No" TD's be looking over their shoulder at? Renua? I know the anti-choice side have said they'll keep this as an issue at every election but hard to see how they will.

Owen Brannigan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1512
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #977 on: May 28, 2018, 09:53:06 AM »
The real test will be FG’s ability to bring in legislation to allow abortion to be carried out and how limited the legislation will be.

TDs will be looking over their shoulders at the electorate before voting on legislation given the proximity of an election.

The proposed legislation is there and can be read by anyone. The politicians will press ahead with that, given the massive mandate they have received.

Except most FF supporters voted No and this puts pressure on their TDs who were mostly No.

The practicalities of legislation are the reality of the situation as all medical organisations now will have a say and medics begin to assess their roles on the frontline of provision.

Where did you see most FF supporters voted no Owen? Given the 66/33 result, I'd be amazed if any party had a majority voting No? I think a No vote was basewd on philosophical grounds rather than party politics.

From Jounal.ie

A breakdown of the RTÉ exit poll found that young people voted overwhelmingly in favour of repealing the abortion ban.
Here’s a breakdown of who voted:
72.1% of women voted Yes
65.9% of men voted Yes
87.6% of 18-24 year olds voted Yes
84.6% of 25-34 year olds voted Yes
72.8% of 35-49 year olds voted Yes
63.7% of 50-64 year olds voted Yes
58.7% of those aged over 65 voted No

A breakdown of the supporters of political parties and how they voted is as follows:
Fine Gael 74.9% Yes
Fianna Fáil 50.3% No
Sinn Féín 74.5% Yes
Labour 80% Yes
Green Party 88% Yes
Independents 72% Yes

AZOffaly

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24901
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #978 on: May 28, 2018, 09:55:04 AM »
Fair enough, I stand corrected. Surprised at that to be honest. Although I suppose FF's vote has collapsed in Dublin, so it's probably a more rural vote, which was closer in most cases anyway I think.

Owen Brannigan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1512
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #979 on: May 28, 2018, 09:55:11 AM »
This poses serious questions for FF as FG performance has given it the progressive label.

magpie seanie

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11856
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #980 on: May 28, 2018, 09:56:33 AM »
Fair enough, I stand corrected. Surprised at that to be honest. Although I suppose FF's vote has collapsed in Dublin, so it's probably a more rural vote, which was closer in most cases anyway I think.


Also I think the conservative element of FG's support has left them and gone to FF. Since the Lucinda breakaway.

AZOffaly

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24901
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #981 on: May 28, 2018, 09:56:58 AM »
This poses serious questions for FF as FG performance has given it the progressive label.

I think that's why MM made the speech he did, and caught his on parliamentary party with their pants down.

sid waddell

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1747
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #982 on: May 28, 2018, 10:02:40 AM »
Fianna Fail TDs have no choice now but to accept the proposed legislation.

They'll be signing their own political death warrant by not doing so.

The next election is probably no more than a year away. As a party, they have no future by retreating to social conservatism. There is no market in Irish politics for it.

In five or ten years' time, if you ask the people whether they still support the abolition of the 8th Amendment, the answer will likely be something like 90-10 Yes.

A lot of the rise in the Yes vote since the 2015 referendum can be explained by natural wastage. Social conservatives are literally dying off.

Fianna Fail's vote is dying off with them.










manfromdelmonte

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2257
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #983 on: May 28, 2018, 10:53:42 AM »
FG are progressive?

I give you... James Bannon

easytiger95

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1164
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #984 on: May 28, 2018, 11:09:50 AM »
Fine Gael has had a progressive wing always, epitomised by Garret Fitzgerald's term as leader.

Social liberals seem to be on the ascendant now within the party. Now if they could just do something about their economic policy, dump the neo-liberal market worshipping and move towards a more social democratic model.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21879
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #985 on: May 28, 2018, 11:13:05 AM »
Fine Gael has had a progressive wing always, epitomised by Garret Fitzgerald's term as leader.

Social liberals seem to be on the ascendant now within the party. Now if they could just do something about their economic policy, dump the neo-liberal market worshipping and move towards a more social democratic model.
A citizens assembly focused on the economic model would be very interesting
Those biscuits are for the visitors

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21879
    • View Profile
Those biscuits are for the visitors


AZOffaly

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24901
    • View Profile
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #988 on: May 28, 2018, 11:39:58 AM »
I have my faith, but I have a serious problem with the Catholic Church moralising on anything while in the middle of various scandals and inquiries related to mothers and babies homes, child 'trafficking' and child abuse. You would like to think they'd have enough cop on to realise they need to take a more pastoral tone.

Bord na Mona man

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1774
    • View Profile
    • Uibhfhaili.com
Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #989 on: May 28, 2018, 11:48:44 AM »
You'd have to admire the opportunism of some of the smarter politicians.
When the same-sex marriage referendum passed, I remember Varadkar getting heat on social media for aligning to pro-life when people were assuming he should also pro-choice because he was gay and in favour of gay marriage.

To see him milking it at the weekend gave me a chuckle. The same goes for Micheal Martin. He obviously read the tea leaves better than any opinion poll.
Simon Harris performed weakly during the campaign, but all that ultimately matters was that he was on the winner's podium.
There was little mention of trollies and waiting lists this past month.

In terms of normal elections, abortion isn't in the top 10. Of it ever was, it won't be any more.
I don't think this stuff feeds into normal politics to any great degree.
As it turned out, and probably unknowingly, about 2/3 of people were in favour, but very few people were particularly exercised about it until recently.