Poll

Are you in favour of repealing the 8th amendment?

Yes
47 (21.8%)
Yes but have no vote
73 (33.8%)
No
40 (18.5%)
No but have no vote
36 (16.7%)
Undecided
20 (9.3%)

Total Members Voted: 216

Voting closed: May 24, 2018, 03:36:55 PM

Author Topic: Eighth Amendment poll  (Read 29496 times)

Farrandeelin

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Eighth Amendment poll
« on: May 01, 2018, 03:36:55 PM »
A general overview of gaaboard members feelings on this issue.
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Hardy

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2018, 03:43:58 PM »
There seems to be quite a large undecided cohort - perhaps include that option in the poll?
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Ambrose

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2018, 03:45:32 PM »
I will be voting NO. It's only the second time in my life that I will have voted and I'll be 50 later this year, so it's something I feel very strongly about.
You can't live off history and tradition forever

Syferus

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2018, 03:56:33 PM »
There seems to be quite a large undecided cohort - perhaps include that option in the poll?

Is there, really? Some may say that but I think this is an issue most people know from a long way out what way they're voting.

AZOffaly

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2018, 03:57:41 PM »
There seems to be quite a large undecided cohort - perhaps include that option in the poll?

Is there, really? Some may say that but I think this is an issue most people know from a long way out what way they're voting.

I think there's a large amount who say they are undecided because they don't want to say they will vote No. I think the yes side will win, but I don't think it will be more than 60-40.

Hound

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2018, 03:58:58 PM »
I'd guess there'll be a big urban-rural divide here when they release the constituency-by-constituency split.

Yes side need to get a real push on to get voters out, otherwise a No win is most certainly not out of the question. This is a very different debate to the marriage vote, which I think was a relatively easy decision for most people (whether Yes or No). There's a very big amount of people for whom this referendum is a very difficult decision either way and many might decide just not to bother.

 


Syferus

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2018, 04:01:10 PM »
There seems to be quite a large undecided cohort - perhaps include that option in the poll?

Is there, really? Some may say that but I think this is an issue most people know from a long way out what way they're voting.

I think there's a large amount who say they are undecided because they don't want to say they will vote No. I think the yes side will win, but I don't think it will be more than 60-40.

I'd take a stab and say an 8-point margin for the Yes side when all is said and done as gaps like this one invariably narrow approaching a poll. So 54-46, which would still be a resounding win in a country that was devoutly Catholic two decades ago.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 04:03:37 PM by Syferus »

AZOffaly

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2018, 04:02:33 PM »
It is when you count the number of votes, but if you have a room of 100 people, and 55 are for, and 45 against, it feels a lot closer :) Also, 2 decades ago was 1998. I'm not sure how devoutly Catholic the country was then. Maybe 4 decades ago.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 04:13:07 PM by AZOffaly »

BennyCake

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2018, 04:12:09 PM »
Can't vote, but a definite NO.

whitey

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2018, 04:18:23 PM »
Yes.....but with reservations (but can't vote)

« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 04:30:20 PM by whitey »

Syferus

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2018, 04:19:43 PM »
It is when you count the number of votes, but if you have a room of 100 people, and 55 are for, and 45 against, it feels a lot closer :) Also, 2 decades ago was 1998. I'm not sure how devoutly Catholic the country was then. Maybe 4 decades ago.

Divorce scrapped over the line 50.28% to 49.72% in 1996; nineteen years later same sex marriage passed 62.07% to 37.93%. The liberalisation of Ireland mostly happened between 1996 and 2015 IMHO, and I'm very thankful for it.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 04:25:40 PM by Syferus »

sid waddell

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2018, 04:21:54 PM »
I think there is a clear majority in favour of repealing the 8th Amendment among all the public, but I expect the actual poll to be very close, perhaps as close as the divorce referendum in 1995.

The No side polled 37.93% in the 2015 same sex marriage referendum. It's hard to imagine anybody who voted No in that referendum voting Yes to repealing the 8th Amendment.

So, notwithstanding the small turnover in the electorate in that three year gap, the No side are effectively starting with almost 38%.

But there will be people who voted Yes in the 2015 referendum voting No this time.

Then, the Yes side have the age old problem of getting young people to actually come out and vote. That won't be a problem for the No side.

The potential for fake news and lies pushed by the No side to become the dominant narrative over the next three and a half weeks is very real. That's the only way they can win. Gavin Sheridan was on Twitter and on radio over the last couple of days detailing how the No side are putting up fake "unbiased" Facebook pages in order to gather data on undecided voters and microtarget.

The No campaign, like Brexit and Trump, are relying on underhand Cambridge Analytica-style methods to sway voters.

AZOffaly

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2018, 04:28:55 PM »
To be honest, I try to ignore all the Yes and No bullshit. As I said on another thread, I read the proposed referendum changes, and the proposed legislation, and that's what I'll make my mind up on. (Or have already)

what lies are the No side putting out?

sid waddell

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2018, 04:33:08 PM »
To be honest, I try to ignore all the Yes and No bullshit. As I said on another thread, I read the proposed referendum changes, and the proposed legislation, and that's what I'll make my mind up on. (Or have already)

what lies are the No side putting out?
For a start, their narrative is to try and fool the public that there will be unrestricted access to abortion up to six months.

This is a blatant lie.

David Robert Grimes laid out some of their other lies in an Irish Times article last month.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/myths-and-lies-about-abortion-must-be-debunked-1.3448176

Syferus

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Re: Eighth Amendment poll
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2018, 04:34:50 PM »
To be honest, I try to ignore all the Yes and No bullshit. As I said on another thread, I read the proposed referendum changes, and the proposed legislation, and that's what I'll make my mind up on. (Or have already)

what lies are the No side putting out?

They have some shte about six month abortions up on a poster back home, classic disingenuous fear-mongering. This was found at a bus stop in Dublin (and this isnt a joke, the same yokes had similar posters up in the past):