Author Topic: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?  (Read 3359 times)

seafoid

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #30 on: November 24, 2017, 05:42:55 PM »
He's not engaging though. He comes across as a D4 head, and he hasn't reached the constituencies I think. I'm not sure anybody really pays any remarks to debate. In Ireland, as most places, politics is local but the man or woman at the top has to be somewhat popular.

Thereís a reason they stick up as many posters of the party leader as the local candidate in areas where itís a toss up, AZ. A leader that is seen as polished and competent (which is enough with the field we have at the minute) can bring home enough preferences to pull those candidates over the line. FF will likely be blamed for this election, so LV has an opportunity if he wants it.

The left wing parties like SF and the water charges are going to get a punch in the face if this goes to the polls.
Not sure about that. The electorate is volatile. FG badly misjudged the last election. How they would do is in their own hands. The message needs to resonate.

They won the election.
If they had won Syf a FF vote of no confidence would be irrelevant. They didn't make the quota
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Syferus

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #31 on: November 24, 2017, 05:48:17 PM »
He's not engaging though. He comes across as a D4 head, and he hasn't reached the constituencies I think. I'm not sure anybody really pays any remarks to debate. In Ireland, as most places, politics is local but the man or woman at the top has to be somewhat popular.

Thereís a reason they stick up as many posters of the party leader as the local candidate in areas where itís a toss up, AZ. A leader that is seen as polished and competent (which is enough with the field we have at the minute) can bring home enough preferences to pull those candidates over the line. FF will likely be blamed for this election, so LV has an opportunity if he wants it.

The left wing parties like SF and the water charges are going to get a punch in the face if this goes to the polls.
Not sure about that. The electorate is volatile. FG badly misjudged the last election. How they would do is in their own hands. The message needs to resonate.

They won the election.
If they had won Syf a FF vote of no confidence would be irrelevant. They didn't make the quota

You really donít know Irish election history if you think the last election counts as a disaster for FG.

seafoid

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #32 on: November 24, 2017, 05:53:40 PM »
He's not engaging though. He comes across as a D4 head, and he hasn't reached the constituencies I think. I'm not sure anybody really pays any remarks to debate. In Ireland, as most places, politics is local but the man or woman at the top has to be somewhat popular.

Thereís a reason they stick up as many posters of the party leader as the local candidate in areas where itís a toss up, AZ. A leader that is seen as polished and competent (which is enough with the field we have at the minute) can bring home enough preferences to pull those candidates over the line. FF will likely be blamed for this election, so LV has an opportunity if he wants it.

The left wing parties like SF and the water charges are going to get a punch in the face if this goes to the polls.
Not sure about that. The electorate is volatile. FG badly misjudged the last election. How they would do is in their own hands. The message needs to resonate.

They won the election.
If they had won Syf a FF vote of no confidence would be irrelevant. They didn't make the quota

You really donít know Irish election history if you think the last election counts as a disaster for FG.
polarisation is everywhere. It is because of the economic situation.
The last election was like an unplanned pregnancy for FG. 

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Denn Forever

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #33 on: November 24, 2017, 06:05:11 PM »
Will there now be a big rush for one side to cosy up with SF?
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Syferus

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2017, 06:26:56 PM »
Will there now be a big rush for one side to cosy up with SF?

Nope.

foxcommander

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #35 on: November 24, 2017, 06:28:50 PM »
Will there now be a big rush for one side to cosy up with SF?

What side?? Fine Gael and Finna Fail are pretty much the exact same thing. Nobody really notices that they are cozying up in government together. Piggies all eating from the same trough.

An amalgamation would be better for the country. Sick of their petty little squabbles that distracts from tackling the real issues.

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bennydorano

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #36 on: November 24, 2017, 06:44:54 PM »
Again from someone who doesn't follow it overly closely - MM always comes across terribly imo, I always be fairly impressed with LV as well, but maybe it's just my Liberal / Natural Political tendencies coming out in me. I still associate FF with Gombeenism and the worst excesses of the recent past.

manfromdelmonte

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #37 on: November 24, 2017, 08:27:59 PM »
A few backbenchers might talk sense into Michael Martin over the weekend


LooseCannon

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #38 on: November 24, 2017, 08:41:08 PM »
I think FF will back away from this "in the general interest" albeit with "serious reservations". This is the first shot across the bow though. They know Varadker isn't as visible or popular as maybe Fine Gael thought he would be. Nobody wants a Christmas election.

LV is way more competent in debates than MM (and lord help Mary Lou or Zombie Gerry if they to debate him). And a lot less baggage than either too. Of the four main leaders heís probably the best equipped to run a good campaign.

The only problem is thereís alot of budget related legislation that would be shelved if an election happens next month. The reality is Fitzgerald will be told to fŻck off, if weíre being honest.

Unless LV wants to go for the big prize..

Love him or hate him, MicheŠl Martin is by far the best debater of all of the leaders.
I think youíve the blue tinted glasses on!!!
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LooseCannon

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #39 on: November 24, 2017, 08:42:18 PM »
He's not engaging though. He comes across as a D4 head, and he hasn't reached the constituencies I think. I'm not sure anybody really pays any remarks to debate. In Ireland, as most places, politics is local but the man or woman at the top has to be somewhat popular.

Thatís exactly what he is. A D4 head
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Syferus

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #40 on: November 24, 2017, 08:44:16 PM »
I think FF will back away from this "in the general interest" albeit with "serious reservations". This is the first shot across the bow though. They know Varadker isn't as visible or popular as maybe Fine Gael thought he would be. Nobody wants a Christmas election.

LV is way more competent in debates than MM (and lord help Mary Lou or Zombie Gerry if they to debate him). And a lot less baggage than either too. Of the four main leaders heís probably the best equipped to run a good campaign.

The only problem is thereís alot of budget related legislation that would be shelved if an election happens next month. The reality is Fitzgerald will be told to fŻck off, if weíre being honest.

Unless LV wants to go for the big prize..

Love him or hate him, MicheŠl Martin is by far the best debater of all of the leaders.
I think youíve the blue tinted glasses on!!!

Your opinion doesnít even reflect this thread, let alone reality. MM walkedhimself into this crisis through sloppily thought out words. Great debater alright.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2017, 11:41:10 PM by Syferus »

LooseCannon

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #41 on: November 24, 2017, 08:45:46 PM »
Either way, I think FF have badly misjudged the mood of the nation if they force this, so I can see some sort of behind the scenes mutual climbdown which will head it off.

SF forced FFís hand by calling for the no confidence vote after MM deciding to try to talk out of both sides of his mouth by criticising Fitzgerald and not doing anything about it.

FG are about the only party who have a solid opportunity if this heads to the polls, as Iím betting the public couldnít give two fŻcks about Fitzgeraldís emails or even the weary excercise in politicking that has become the whole McCabe issue.

FF can be rightly blamed for putting party politics before the country, and the high watermark for far left groups is likely to subside in the face of a significantly better economy. If LV enters the holidays with a better mandate he better send Enda a Christmas card.
Itís not party politics, itís much, much more than that. Christ, you must be a smurf, if you know what I mean  ;)  ;)
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macdanger2

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2017, 11:29:26 PM »
PP odds favouring a 2018 election (4/7) over a 2017 one (5/4). Leo and Martin same odds for next Taoiseach @10/11 but oddly FF/SF or FF minority govt marginal favourites @5/1 over FG/FF or FG minority @11/2.

So basically, too close to call

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #43 on: November 24, 2017, 11:34:06 PM »
PP odds favouring a 2018 election (4/7) over a 2017 one (5/4). Leo and Martin same odds for next Taoiseach @10/11 but oddly FF/SF or FF minority govt marginal favourites @5/1 over FG/FF or FG minority @11/2.

So basically, too close to call
Not according to Syfīn. .. Bueshurts to win 90 seats ;D ::)
2018- 2 Cupeens won, 2 to go.

Syferus

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Re: Election for turkeys ? Will FG go for it?
« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2017, 11:38:02 PM »
PP odds favouring a 2018 election (4/7) over a 2017 one (5/4). Leo and Martin same odds for next Taoiseach @10/11 but oddly FF/SF or FF minority govt marginal favourites @5/1 over FG/FF or FG minority @11/2.

So basically, too close to call
Not according to Syfīn. .. Bueshurts to win 90 seats ;D ::)

Odds on politics is in the same league as betting on minor football, uneducated guesswork for the oddsmakers. Lord knows the odds they quoted for Brexit, Trump or Maypocaylspe in the last year alone.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2017, 11:39:53 PM by Syferus »