Author Topic: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive  (Read 36748 times)

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #540 on: January 11, 2017, 11:03:07 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

It's to do with constituency boundaries. A bit like the electoral college in the US Trump won the most states but lost the popular vote by some margin. Gerrymandering is alive and well in todays world!

It's hardly gerrymandering that most nationalist live in constituencies that are west of the Bann.  Many constituencies are predominantly one side or the other due to polarisation of residency.  You could further gerrymander in Belfast to be in slightly in favour of nationalists but it would not make a significant difference in seats.  The use of PR provides the most accurate representation of the voting of people in a constituency.

While the percentages of perceived nationalists and unionists are moving closer together, the percentages at voting age are much further apart at this time.   

The percentages would only be translated into seats if there was one party available on both sides.

It kind of is gerrymandering if the constituency boundaries are not regularly updated. The new boundaries for the next Westminster elections have the DUP bricking it as North Belfast and Upper Bann are looking like SF gains and they are already demanding that the proposals are changed. Interesting that the last proposals were redrawn using the electoral roll and not census data (norm for rest of the world) which would obviously favour nationalists even more.

armaghniac

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #541 on: January 11, 2017, 11:14:04 AM »
It is a bit like Brexit in England. The 60+ age group,  who are two thirds unionist,  have a high turnout. The younger groups give out on Facebook,  but don't bother themselves actually going to vote.

And if people want to minimise the impact of Brexit then they should get out and vote for a party that opposes Brexit and wants special recognition of NI's situation. I. E not the unionists and not the PBP.

So is Alliance or Green Party going to stand up to the boys club in Europe and demand special treatment for Norn Iron?

You can debate their ability to influence things, but they would "stand up". And the likes of the Greens have important international links in the European parliament etc. Europe is not the problem here, the problem is London and Belfast.
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JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #542 on: January 11, 2017, 11:20:39 AM »
Voting in the 2014 European election was based on a single constituency which eliminates any gerrymandering.  This shows how far behind that nationalists are behind in voting parity with unionist.

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      374,120
      
Others      10,598



Nationalist      241407      38.6%
            
Unionist      374120      59.8%
            
Others      10598      1.7%

Nationalist turnout is poor at the moment compared to say late nineties early noughties when nationalism was hitting 45%, now even including PBP its around 41% when demographics should actually be improving the %.

A couple of points regarding the 2014 European election you need to remember Anna Lo not long before the election stated she wanted a United Ireland so its quite clear that the Alliance vote that year was very very 'green' and is easily proved looking at the Alliance transfers 25000 votes went to SDLP and only 12000 combined to DUP, UUP and TUV. There are no figures for SF transfers because SF had already reached the quota at that stage. I would also say the Green partys rise is mainly due to SDLP voters switching again quite clearly seen by their dramatic rise in SB and at the same time the dramatic decline of SDLP in the same constitiuency

ziggysego

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #543 on: January 11, 2017, 12:24:10 PM »
CISTA are back. They've had to rename themselves, as a party cannot be re-registered after a lapse.

The are now called CISTA.
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Minder

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #544 on: January 11, 2017, 12:57:47 PM »
I don't think there will be an election, neither SF or DUP want one, I think we will see this "crisis" averted
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vallankumous

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #545 on: January 11, 2017, 01:04:46 PM »
I don't think there will be an election, neither SF or DUP want one, I think we will see this "crisis" averted

Yes, I think it's time to fly them all of to some Royal Holiday home for negotiations. Then they'll all come back with Holyroodhouse Agreement after a weekend of wine and cheese.

Take Your Points

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #546 on: January 11, 2017, 01:05:36 PM »
Bit of gerrymandering of the figures there TYP?

Given that the Alliance Party fought tooth and nail to get the designation 'other' added to the register in the Belfast Agreement, I think they'd be disappointed that you have taken it upon yourself to label them as unionists.  Poor form.

Really, they are not unionist?  Do they want a united Ireland?

Franko

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #547 on: January 11, 2017, 01:18:50 PM »
Bit of gerrymandering of the figures there TYP?

Given that the Alliance Party fought tooth and nail to get the designation 'other' added to the register in the Belfast Agreement, I think they'd be disappointed that you have taken it upon yourself to label them as unionists.  Poor form.

Really, they are not unionist?  Do they want a united Ireland?

They are designated as "other".  They neither aspire to a union with Britain or a UI.

You had an 'others' category but didn't put them into it in order to massage your figures and strengthen your point.  Which is ironic, because deliberately quoting inaccurate numbers means your point has lost all credibility.

oisinog

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #548 on: January 11, 2017, 01:30:42 PM »
Voting in the 2014 European election was based on a single constituency which eliminates any gerrymandering.  This shows how far behind that nationalists are behind in voting parity with unionist.

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      374,120
      
Others      10,598



Nationalist      241407      38.6%
            
Unionist      374120      59.8%
            
Others      10598      1.7%

Recorrecting those figures including Alliance as other this is how it stands

Nationalist      241,407 (38.5)

Unionist            319,315 (51.0)

Other               65.583   (10.5)

Of Couse this does not include transfers which could result in lower first choice for all the parties
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 01:34:04 PM by oisinog »

Take Your Points

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #549 on: January 11, 2017, 01:34:18 PM »
Not massaging figures but Alliance are unionists and a majority of their vote is captured in areas where nationalists do not make up a significant number, e.g. East Belfast.  Whether they want to categorise themselves as unionists or not it is purely to create from clear water between themselves and the UUP where they fight for the same vote.  They are occupying seats in the Assembly that would previously have gone to the UUP.

BTW I am not making a point with these figures other than to explain why the unionists have more seats than nationalists, i.e. they can turn out more voters than nationalists. Even adding the Alliance to the other group makes little real difference to a unionist majority of the votes being cast:

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      329,688
      
Others      55,030



Nationalist      241,407      38.56%
            
Unionist      329,688      52.66%
            
Others      55,030      8.79%
[/quote]

Unionists still have more than half the votes cast.

Franko

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #550 on: January 11, 2017, 01:41:16 PM »
Not massaging figures but Alliance are unionists and a majority of their vote is captured in areas where nationalists do not make up a significant number, e.g. East Belfast.  Whether they want to categorise themselves as unionists or not it is purely to create from clear water between themselves and the UUP where they fight for the same vote.  They are occupying seats in the Assembly that would previously have gone to the UUP.

BTW I am not making a point with these figures other than to explain why the unionists have more seats than nationalists, i.e. they can turn out more voters than nationalists. Even adding the Alliance to the other group makes little real difference to a unionist majority of the votes being cast:

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      329,688
      
Others      55,030



Nationalist      241,407      38.56%
            
Unionist      329,688      52.66%
            
Others      55,030      8.79%

Unionists still have more than half the votes cast.
[/quote]

I'm sorry TYP, but someone who votes for a party which clearly states that they are not unionist, and who's only MEP has declared that she would vote for a UI given the choice cannot be considered a unionist.  No matter how many times you repeat it and no matter how much you'd like it to be so.

Longshanks

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #551 on: January 11, 2017, 01:45:00 PM »
Alliance are not a party I consider unionist at all and are in fact one of the party who speak the most sense and probably one of the more progressive parties.

ziggysego

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #552 on: January 11, 2017, 01:56:15 PM »
Alliance are not a party I consider unionist at all and are in fact one of the party who speak the most sense and probably one of the more progressive parties.

Whilst I agee that Alliance Party are not Unionist, Anna Lo got into some wile trouble from Belfast thugs for dare staying she wants a UI.
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screenexile

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #553 on: January 11, 2017, 02:02:04 PM »
Yeah I wouldn't be classing Alliance as either really they shouldn't be included with Unionist/Nationalist.

Also . . .

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #554 on: January 11, 2017, 02:13:18 PM »

I'm sorry TYP, but someone who votes for a party which clearly states that they are not unionist, and who's only MEP has declared that she would vote for a UI given the choice cannot be considered a unionist.  No matter how many times you repeat it and no matter how much you'd like it to be so.

You might want to read these articles to see that Alliance is a party which supports the Union but does not believe that MLAs should be designated by nationalist or unionist.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2013/09/22/alliance-party-is-it-really-the-belfast-party/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Party_of_Northern_Ireland#MPs

It could also link to the discussion on the Rory McIlroy thread.