Author Topic: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive  (Read 55417 times)

Applesisapples

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #525 on: January 11, 2017, 09:01:20 AM »
I have been critical of SF recently, particularly in relation to their propping up of the DUP. The DUP have an agenda to deny Irishness and Irish culture whilst funding loyalists with paramilitary links and funding those cultural icons that are the marching (flute) bands. SF have had no choice in pulling the plug and should not re-enter any executive without guarantees on equality.

Applesisapples

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #526 on: January 11, 2017, 09:03:08 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

screenexile

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #527 on: January 11, 2017, 09:17:01 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

It's to do with constituency boundaries. A bit like the electoral college in the US Trump won the most states but lost the popular vote by some margin. Gerrymandering is alive and well in todays world!

AQMP

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #528 on: January 11, 2017, 09:34:43 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

It's to do with constituency boundaries. A bit like the electoral college in the US Trump won the most states but lost the popular vote by some margin. Gerrymandering is alive and well in todays world!

This, plus in the last couple or three elections nationalists have been staying at home more.

Take Your Points

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #529 on: January 11, 2017, 09:36:35 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

It's to do with constituency boundaries. A bit like the electoral college in the US Trump won the most states but lost the popular vote by some margin. Gerrymandering is alive and well in todays world!

It's hardly gerrymandering that most nationalist live in constituencies that are west of the Bann.  Many constituencies are predominantly one side or the other due to polarisation of residency.  You could further gerrymander in Belfast to be in slightly in favour of nationalists but it would not make a significant difference in seats.  The use of PR provides the most accurate representation of the voting of people in a constituency.

While the percentages of perceived nationalists and unionists are moving closer together, the percentages at voting age are much further apart at this time.   

The percentages would only be translated into seats if there was one party available on both sides.

Take Your Points

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #530 on: January 11, 2017, 09:53:02 AM »
Voting in the 2014 European election was based on a single constituency which eliminates any gerrymandering.  This shows how far behind that nationalists are behind in voting parity with unionist.

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      374,120
      
Others      10,598



Nationalist      241407      38.6%
            
Unionist      374120      59.8%
            
Others      10598      1.7%
            

« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 09:55:02 AM by Take Your Points »

seafoid

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #531 on: January 11, 2017, 10:11:39 AM »
Turnout was 54% 7 months ago. Might be lower now. There could be enough margin for a higher overall nationalist vote.
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armaghniac

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #532 on: January 11, 2017, 10:20:54 AM »
It is a bit like Brexit in England. The 60+ age group,  who are two thirds unionist,  have a high turnout. The younger groups give out on Facebook,  but don't bother themselves actually going to vote.

And if people want to minimise the impact of Brexit then they should get out and vote for a party that opposes Brexit and wants special recognition of NI's situation. I. E not the unionists and not the PBP.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 10:22:50 AM by armaghniac »
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Franko

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #533 on: January 11, 2017, 10:21:01 AM »
Bit of gerrymandering of the figures there TYP?

Given that the Alliance Party fought tooth and nail to get the designation 'other' added to the register in the Belfast Agreement, I think they'd be disappointed that you have taken it upon yourself to label them as unionists.  Poor form.

BennyCake

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #534 on: January 11, 2017, 10:57:04 AM »
It is a bit like Brexit in England. The 60+ age group,  who are two thirds unionist,  have a high turnout. The younger groups give out on Facebook,  but don't bother themselves actually going to vote.

And if people want to minimise the impact of Brexit then they should get out and vote for a party that opposes Brexit and wants special recognition of NI's situation. I. E not the unionists and not the PBP.

So is Alliance or Green Party going to stand up to the boys club in Europe and demand special treatment for Norn Iron?

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #535 on: January 11, 2017, 11:03:07 AM »
On a different tack, given that the population here is somewhere around 45% nationalist 49% Unionist why do unionist parties get 10 or 11 seats more?

It's to do with constituency boundaries. A bit like the electoral college in the US Trump won the most states but lost the popular vote by some margin. Gerrymandering is alive and well in todays world!

It's hardly gerrymandering that most nationalist live in constituencies that are west of the Bann.  Many constituencies are predominantly one side or the other due to polarisation of residency.  You could further gerrymander in Belfast to be in slightly in favour of nationalists but it would not make a significant difference in seats.  The use of PR provides the most accurate representation of the voting of people in a constituency.

While the percentages of perceived nationalists and unionists are moving closer together, the percentages at voting age are much further apart at this time.   

The percentages would only be translated into seats if there was one party available on both sides.

It kind of is gerrymandering if the constituency boundaries are not regularly updated. The new boundaries for the next Westminster elections have the DUP bricking it as North Belfast and Upper Bann are looking like SF gains and they are already demanding that the proposals are changed. Interesting that the last proposals were redrawn using the electoral roll and not census data (norm for rest of the world) which would obviously favour nationalists even more.

armaghniac

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #536 on: January 11, 2017, 11:14:04 AM »
It is a bit like Brexit in England. The 60+ age group,  who are two thirds unionist,  have a high turnout. The younger groups give out on Facebook,  but don't bother themselves actually going to vote.

And if people want to minimise the impact of Brexit then they should get out and vote for a party that opposes Brexit and wants special recognition of NI's situation. I. E not the unionists and not the PBP.

So is Alliance or Green Party going to stand up to the boys club in Europe and demand special treatment for Norn Iron?

You can debate their ability to influence things, but they would "stand up". And the likes of the Greens have important international links in the European parliament etc. Europe is not the problem here, the problem is London and Belfast.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #537 on: January 11, 2017, 11:20:39 AM »
Voting in the 2014 European election was based on a single constituency which eliminates any gerrymandering.  This shows how far behind that nationalists are behind in voting parity with unionist.

SF      159,813
DUP      131,163
UUP      83,438
SDLP      81,594
TUV      75,806
Alliance   44,432
UKIP      24,584
Green   10,598
N21      10,553
Cons      4,144


Nationalist      241,407
      
Unionist      374,120
      
Others      10,598



Nationalist      241407      38.6%
            
Unionist      374120      59.8%
            
Others      10598      1.7%

Nationalist turnout is poor at the moment compared to say late nineties early noughties when nationalism was hitting 45%, now even including PBP its around 41% when demographics should actually be improving the %.

A couple of points regarding the 2014 European election you need to remember Anna Lo not long before the election stated she wanted a United Ireland so its quite clear that the Alliance vote that year was very very 'green' and is easily proved looking at the Alliance transfers 25000 votes went to SDLP and only 12000 combined to DUP, UUP and TUV. There are no figures for SF transfers because SF had already reached the quota at that stage. I would also say the Green partys rise is mainly due to SDLP voters switching again quite clearly seen by their dramatic rise in SB and at the same time the dramatic decline of SDLP in the same constitiuency

ziggysego

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #538 on: January 11, 2017, 12:24:10 PM »
CISTA are back. They've had to rename themselves, as a party cannot be re-registered after a lapse.

The are now called CISTA.
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Minder

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Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« Reply #539 on: January 11, 2017, 12:57:47 PM »
I don't think there will be an election, neither SF or DUP want one, I think we will see this "crisis" averted
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