All-Ireland Final, September 18th, 2016 - Dublin v Mayo

[JoG2]

Anyone thinking Mayo's win over Tyrone was convincing/ thorough should read the article below.

https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/mayo-v-tyrone-2016-ai-quarter-final/

the only bit that counts

[Asal Mor]

Anyone thinking Mayo's win over Tyrone was convincing/ thorough should read the article below.

https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/mayo-v-tyrone-2016-ai-quarter-final/

the only bit that counts

Excellent analysis though. The expected points stat is very useful. Tells you a lot more than wides/attempts stats.

[Mayo4Sam]

this thread has gone a bit quite and maybe we don't have much left to say about the game its self so instead ill wax nostalgic ,this is a post i put up before last years semi

It's hard to describe the excitement I felt  on that first trip to Croke park, the 18Th of august 1985 (yes of course I had to look it up!). I was 8 years old and me and my dad were going off for the day to the big game. looking back now he was probably as excited as I was, he would have been 37 at the time, younger then I am now and in his lifetime mayo had given him very few days out in Dublin, I was the eldest so it was just me and him.  Up early for a bus to Dublin. I don't remember much about the bus journey up except that I was worried about my new flag. I was told I had to leave it in the overhead locker and I did not like being parted from it. it was the height of fashion that year, red and green horizontal bars as opposed to the more traditional  vertical. God I loved that flag I kept it for years, until it became so frayed at the edges it was little more than a collection of streamers.

I remember being out the back of the Hogan stand waiting to go in and being in awe of this huge structure. In my mind's eye it's a beautiful sunny day.  we went inside  and it was dark and forbidding the toilets were horrible and crowed and my earlier euphoria was beginning to fade. Then the magic happened, a spell was cast on me that remains to this day. We turned the corner to our section and walked towards the blinding light and there it was, Croker in all its glory, the field a brilliant striped green a field like non I'd ever seen, there was no HDTV in 1985 so I had literally never seen anything as perfect, and then there were that stands  and the people and the hill and all the blue and all the green and red. All the green and red, and my dad seemed to know everyone and every one was calling out and shouting and excited  we took our seats and I got my first lesson in how to strike up conversations with strangers at football matches. to me  the opposition were the big bad dubs so I was a bit surprised by the chatting with all the Dublin supporters, all the craic, I think I learned I was  culchie that day, ( I already knew they were only auld jackeens!) My dad had worked in Dublin years before and of course he knew some relation of the guy behind us, I was trying to get my game face on but he kept gasbagging with the enemy!!

Then the band and the parade and the anthem and mayo were doing well, Kevin mc stay tj kilgallon, willie joe padden, john finn and the rest. The excitement was too much, the game went by in flash, we drew!! I was delighted but I got the impression  the older ones new it was no good that we had lost our chance, still no harm we would be back and if not this year then next, I saw the future as being centred on my new favourite place in the world,  the naivety of youth.  Still as I said the spell was cast, the grass, the noise, the crowds the colour, the band, the players, the game, in later years the pubs, the friends, the nights out before and after, now its heading back to the day trips with kids again, the world turns. The kids, nothing sums up the GAA more than the kids that go to games big and small with their flags and headbands and hats and jerseys and a ferocious  belief in their team that is hard to maintain as the years pass buy.

So on sunday we meet again, about a third of the population of Mayo will actually leave the county and head to Dublin, we will  meet our best friends and people we haven't seen in years  as we amble down the north circular, outside gills we will meet some Dubs we know and the craic will flow, heroes of yesteryear will walk buy and dads will whisper their names to the little ones " look that's wille joe padden over there'', "See yer man son, that's Barney Rock", the kids will nod but don't really care they only have eyes for Aiden or Bernard.

Then inside and it happens all over again, the bright light from the tunnel, the incredible green, the noise the roar of the hill,  ''come on you boys in blue'', MAYO MAYO MAYO MAYO''  in response from around the ground growing louder and louder. Then a winner and a loser, Who shall it be? Doesn't really matter.

You weren't half as innocent nor eloquent by the time the 96 final came round, drunk out of your mind playing poker in a bed sit in Charlemont street if I recall? 

I thought you were dead, welcome back

[JoG2]

Anyone thinking Mayo's win over Tyrone was convincing/ thorough should read the article below.

https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/mayo-v-tyrone-2016-ai-quarter-final/

the only bit that counts

Excellent analysis though. The expected points stat is very useful. Tells you a lot more than wides/attempts stats.

Oh aye,  superb work

[ONeill]

Have me Mayo flag out.  Don't let me down.

[highorlow]

Changed my mind again after trying multiple formations and options for our team.

The bookies never have it far wrong and I would say if we went out and played Dublin 5 times over the next five weekends we might win 1 and maybe draw another. In fact if the pick of Mayo and Kerry played Dublin I would still give Dublin more than a 50/50 chance.

f**k it anyhow. I had myself deluded for a week or more. I'm just going to go on the beer from 3pm on Sat to try and ease the pain.

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Anyone thinking Mayo's win over Tyrone was convincing/ thorough should read the article below.

https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/mayo-v-tyrone-2016-ai-quarter-final/

There's our problem right there: "...Of course that leaves the supporting cast [outside of Harte & Mattie Donnelly] returning 7% (1 from 14) and Expt Pts of -5.13. That is genuinely appalling and even more so when you consider that eight of those 14 shots occurred either from the central zone around the D or inside the 20m line."

Dublin won't be anything like as lax, and Mayo need close that door on so many opportunities at opposition scores on Sunday.

[macdanger2]

Was talking to a fella earlier about the match and we got to discussing possible match ups and how many we expect to win, it didn't turn out great. I'd expect it to go something like this (just considering lines of play here as it's hard to call exactly who'll pick up who). And even at this, I might be optimistic in places.

Goalie
Clarke vs. Cluxton - Mayo 0, Dublin 1
Cluxton might be on the wane but he's still top quality. Clarke is a better shot stopper imo but he's nowhere near as good on kickouts

Mayo FB Line:
Barrett or Keane / Higgins / Harrison (+ McL) or AN Other vs. Rock / BB / Kevin Mc - Mayo 1, Dublin 2
I'd hope that Higgins & Harrison can break even here but Kevin Mc gives Dublin the advantage even with the sweeper

Mayo HB line:
Keegan / Boyle / Durcan vs. Connolly / KK / Flynn - Mayo 1.5, Dublin 1.5
Assuming Flynn is as poor as he's been all year, all three of these should finish up around even. If Flynn plays well then it's + 1 Dublin.

Midfield:
SOS / Vaughan or Parsons vs. Fenton & MDMA - Mayo 0.5, Dublin 1.5
I think Fenton is top quality and is too good for any of four options

Mayo HF line:
DOC / AOS / Doc vs. Small / COS / McCarthy - Mayo 2, Dublin 1
Assuming DOC is fit, I expect him and AOS to win their battles against any of these three.

Mayo FF line:
Andy / COC vs. Cooper / McMahon / Byrne Mayo 1, Dublin 2
I think both Andy & Cillian will break even with their men overall but against 3 men, it'll be hard for them to turn those battles into wins.

Subs: Dublin are weaker on the bench than previous year but still have better forwards to bring on (Mannion, Andrews & O'Gara vs. Regan, Dillon, Freeman) although Mayo have an advantage at MF (Parsons & Barry vs Bastick & ??). Neither have great strength on the bench in the backs (assuming Barrett starts for us) so if either side get a black card, it could be telling.

Overall:
Mayo: 6 Dublin 9

If it pans out like that, then you're looking at a 6+ points win for Dublin.

So for us to win, I think we need to turn ~6 of those battles from losses into draws or draws into wins. Looking at which ones we could possibly turn around:

Clarke - would need to nail all his kickouts (unlikely to get too many soft short ones) and concede < 2 goals to turn that into a draw.
The FB line would need to curtail Kevin Mc and reduce the numbers of frees conceded (Tipp scored 9 or 10 from frees)
At HB, Boyler or Durcan would need to win their battle (or Keegan help Connolly beat the queues for a shower)
It's stating the obvious but MF is crucial, we need to win all our own kickouts and a few of Dublin's. With Vaughan & SOS though we don't have our strongest fielders in there. I think SOS should be told that he's only playing 35 minutes and to empty himself in the first half; replace with Parsons at HT and repeat.
Doc is our second highest scorer in the championship so far, would need him to chip in with 2-3 points.
At FF, Andy & COC will need runners supporting to win that line for us.

Everything would need to fall into place for us to win here but there's always hope.........

Reading back on that, it's fairly pessimistic but I'm sure by 3:30pm on Sunday I'll be certain we can take them!!

Maigh Eo abu

[moysider]

Changed my mind again after trying multiple formations and options for our team.

The bookies never have it far wrong and I would say if we went out and played Dublin 5 times over the next five weekends we might win 1 and maybe draw another. In fact if the pick of Mayo and Kerry played Dublin I would still give Dublin more than a 50/50 chance.

f**k it anyhow. I had myself deluded for a week or more. I'm just going to go on the beer from 3pm on Sat to try and ease the pain.

Ah yeah. We must be the only fans ( well the older ones anyway, that have seen us lose 7 finals from 7 and a replay), that come to terms with the disappointment of it all before the actual match. It's the only way to cope I suppose. 90% resignation to misery and 10% hope.

[Farrandeelin]

Yes moysider. That's exactly how I feel. Ready for and expecting a loss. Mad I know.

[moysider]

Yes moysider. That's exactly how I feel. Ready for and expecting a loss. Mad I know.

Sigh!! Not mad really though is it? A mixture of realism and conditioning. That mixture adds up to pessimism in our case. For us to be optimistic would be madness indeed. Hope is the best we can hope for.

[Chimley]

Yes moysider. That's exactly how I feel. Ready for and expecting a loss. Mad I know.

I wasn't expecting you to be pessimistic.

[ballinaman]

Yes moysider. That's exactly how I feel. Ready for and expecting a loss. Mad I know.

I'm shocked at the two of ye, never thought I'd see the day!

[laoislad]

Mayo by 4 points.

[seafoid]

If Mayo win they will have to build a new maternity wing in Castlebar hospital.