The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[seafoid]

Irish bond yields ( all euro bonds in the main ) are low because the ECb are underwriting by secondary buying .

also because of deflation..
20k houses at 100k each would cost 20 million in interest per year. The gov could get pension funds to fund them over 30 years. Imagination.The savings glut makes a lot of things possible.

[seafoid]

FG must have lost votes because of the Man Utd situation.

[highorlow]

I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.

Yes, one would consider emigration listening to the radio these days. We are a country overflowing with gombeens and parasites.

[seafoid]

I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.

Yes, one would consider emigration listening to the radio these days. We are a country overflowing with gombeens and parasites.

RTE rarely look at systemic issues. Their default setting is "everything is grand. Over to Con for the sport"

[deiseach]

RTE rarely look at systemic issues. Their default setting is "everything is grand. Over to Con for the rugby"

Fixed that for you.

[Rossfan]

Willie Penrose takes the last seat in LD/WH.
Labour now have the magic 7 while the Larries have no TD.
Take that Shamrock Shore!!!

[Declan]

Interesting take from McWilliams

The three most pressing issues that will top new government's to-do list

No matter who forms the next government, three major external issues are likely to dictate the economic agenda for the next few years. All these issues challenge Irish conventional wisdom and they will be difficult to tackle.

Unfortunately, the ability of Irish policymakers to question conventional wisdom is not something you would bet on.

Let's deal with each challenge in turn. First, we will see a dramatic change in our relations with the EU. At its most basic, the point is that no Irish policymaker seriously imagined being in a union with Germany and France, never mind Italy or Spain, without Britain.


The working assumption was always that Britain would join the euro, but that didn't work out, leaving Ireland in the ridiculous position of using a German currency but remaining firmly in an Anglo – or, at least, Anglo/American – economic cycle. This inappropriate currency arrangement has resulted in massive economic instability. In the 15 years of using the euro, Ireland experienced a massive boom and a massive bust, the polar opposite to stability.


If the British leave the EU, Ireland can't allow itself to be bullied by the rest of the EU in the EU's consequent dealing with Britain. If the EU reacts to a 'British Out' vote by imposing trade or investment barriers with Britain or barriers to the free movement of people with Britain, we will simply have to veto these moves or negotiate an opt-out.


It is not feasible that we treat our biggest trading partner in the same way as Lithuania or Poland might treat the UK. Ireland and Britain are intertwined, with a land border and a shared island. It is not feasible for us to go along with continental reactions to a 'British Out' if those reactions are not in our national interest. If the EU gets vindictive, Ireland will have to get assertive. Whether we like it our not, Ireland's national interest regarding Brexit is not the same as Italy's or Spain's, never mind Poland's or Germany's.


Our national interest is a special relationship with the UK; end of story. That's the first piece of realpolitik our 1916 celebrants will have to digest.


The second bit is that without the UK, the very character of the EU will change. The flexible, Anglo/American arguments, which were made by the UK, will fade. The UK did much of the heavy lifting on behalf of corporate Ireland when it came to the EU.


This influence could well be gone by July. It will imply that we will have to adopt a more muscular approach within the EU and find new allies.


The third aspect of our relationship with the EU that will change is if the UK goes, the reaction of the main EU players will be more, not less, integration.


This isn't good for us. It will come at a time when the entire IDA and, to an extent, Enterprise Ireland, strategy has never been more America- focused. The biggest and most conspicuous casualty of a new, more integrationist EU will be our corporation tax rate. There is simply no way the EU will accept that Ireland deploys what it sees as "beggar-my-neighbour" tax tactics when the EU is seeking closer political and economic union.


Tax harmonisation will be the order of the day. When the British were on side, they argued for tax harmonisation but "downward tax harmonisation" where the lowest jurisdiction was the target. With France calling the shots, the target will clearly be upward harmonisation – a totally different ballgame.


Another change that would result from a Brexit depends on what the UK is likely to do once it leaves the EU. It is likely to compete more aggressively for inward corporate investment. It will offer packages that are similar or even better to Ireland's. This will mean that just when we are coming under bureaucratic EU pressure to raise our taxes and make the place less attractive, the British will be lowering taxes and making the UK more attractive.


Ireland's only way of surviving this assault would be to side with the EU in vindictive trade restrictions against Britain in an effort to make being inside the EU, with access to its markets, a marketing/industrial selling point.


But this would immediately mean clobbering the €1bn euro a week trade we currently do with the UK and all the jobs, prosperity and wealth that goes with it.


The implication is that to protect the multinationals, Ireland would have to endanger the domestic economy. Not pretty.


Any sort of EU restriction with trade, the movement of people or the free movement of capital with the UK will have to be challenged by the new Irish government.

If there is a hint of any barriers, we will have to opt out and the more we opt out the more semi-detached we would become.


That's absolutely fine with me because I believe the EU is a legacy project that has lost any real meaning or focus.


However, that's not the way the people who run Ireland see things. At the top of our civil service, the judiciary, the media, corporate Ireland and the political class, there is a virulent, unthinking strain of Europhilia.


All things European are seen as good, progressive and self-evidently positive. When views like this become so ubiquitous they morph into self-evident truths.


History tells us that views can become entrenched and if enough people – particularly those who describe themselves as 'serious people' – believe them, they become 'conventional wisdom'.


Once ideas become conventional wisdom, they are hard to shift. Conventional people (who like to think of themselves as serious people, not frivolous people) find it difficult to admit that they might be wrong. We see this stubborn behaviour at the top of many organisations because conventional people tend to promote those who have the same views as themselves and this reinforces the conventional wisdom.


In time, only 'cranks' question the conventional wisdom and this is how intellectual conformity solidifies in the commanding height of society, leading yet again to "groupthink".


Watch the Irish establishment uncover proof at every turn in the next few months.

[mikehunt]

I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.

Disappointing from FF, but can't blame them. SF/PBP have a huge element of the population convinced that someone else should pay for their water

All will be ok when the people that paid for our water prior to Irish Water, come back. Has anyone seen them? If they have can you ask them to come back cos I'm sick of having to pay for stuff. I want them (whoever they are) to come back and pay for my water. 

[seafoid]

Brexit won't happen. The Euros don't want it and neither do the Tories. The big challenge facing the new Gov will be the next crash.

[Rossfan]

Two thirds, at least,  of the State is still suffering from the fall out of the 2008 crash.
As for the EU - the main reason most of the Multi Nationals are here is because we're in the EU.

[Canalman]

The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?

Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.

I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector.  ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).

Serious trouble ahead imo.

Utter nonsense.

Brexit would increase FDI into Ireland

And there is absolutely no threat to Ireland's 12.5% rate! (Apart from SF/PBP maybe)

In your opinion of course. Time will tell.

Personally, I cannot see our low tax rate surviving much longer if the EU turns on us (which it will sooner or later imo). .

The second part of the  usual "double dip" recession to hit us shortly I'm afraid ........... imo of course again. Money printing (or whatever they are calling it now) never ends well. Far too much debt lingering around still.

[muppet]

Irish bond yields ( all euro bonds in the main ) are low because the ECb are underwriting by secondary buying .

Good point. Is there a way of reasonably estimating what the yields would be if the ECB stopped?

[mikehunt]

Two thirds, at least,  of the State is still suffering from the fall out of the 2008 crash.
As for the EU - the main reason most of the Multi Nationals are here is because we're in the EU.

Two of the main reasons they are here is because of
1. Low Corp Tax.
2. An educated (the odd one like Rossfan slip through the net) English speaking workforce. There are other reasons but these are the main two.

[Hound]

The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?

Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.

I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector.  ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).

Serious trouble ahead imo.

Utter nonsense.

Brexit would increase FDI into Ireland

And there is absolutely no threat to Ireland's 12.5% rate! (Apart from SF/PBP maybe)

In your opinion of course. Time will tell.

Personally, I cannot see our low tax rate surviving much longer if the EU turns on us (which it will sooner or later imo). .

The second part of the  usual "double dip" recession to hit us shortly I'm afraid ........... imo of course again. Money printing (or whatever they are calling it now) never ends well. Far too much debt lingering around still.

Its not an opinion, its an absolute fact that the 12.5% tax rate is not under threat from the EU. The fact that a country can choose its own tax rate has been fully endorsed by the European Commission.

What is under attack is sweetheart deals given to companies which aren't in accordance with local or international tax rules. But the likes of Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium have far more to worry about in this regard as their tax systems are far more ruling based than ours.

Apple are under investigation in Ireland as they did get a ruling to determine their tax basis. While not alone in this regard, it is very much the exception and dates back to 1980, a very different time. The Department of Finance still say they believe everything is above aboard and will fight any negative finding. But the vast majority of companies in Ireland simply pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. Unlike a lot of our European neighbours, a very transparent system with no need for special rulings.

There is another thing called CCCTB, which if implemented would radically alter the way MNC profits are calculated and allocated between different countries. The 12.5% rate would stay the same but the profits in Ireland would be decreased, so it would be very bad for us. But it requires unanimity, and even Germany has expressed misgivings on it, so it doesn't appear to be a real risk at this stage.

[Canalman]

And the Comission/ Council / qualified majority of member states or whoever  can no doubt unendorse it . I would say that deep in the bowels of one of those treaties we voted on (eventually) there is a paragraph  to that effect.

If our fellow member states (not to mention the IRS in America)  try and shake us down, imo we are goosed. I think it will happen as well in the not too distant future.

The low corporation tax rate has served us very well , just think its days might be numbered.

Imo again.