The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[haranguerer]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

[whitey]

SF were up against FF, in particular, a party ruined having delivered the country from boom to bust. They were also up against FG/Labour, parties who started off in an IMF straight jacket and who didn't do a very good job of getting out of that jacket.

It was the ultimate open goal, and yet FG remain the largest party with FF roaring back.

If not FG/FF then FF or FG will have to talk to SF along with a load of others. I would guess that Adams head would be a deal breaker for either party.

So either SF somehow get into government and Adams would most likely have to go, or they sit in opposition with either a huge FG/FF majority government, or the have a reduced influence in opposition behind either a weak FG or FF led government. Either way it wasn't a good day for them.

Caveat: Exit Poll are just more polls and final transfers can change things an awful lot.

PR is a weird system

Remember a few years back Enda's bacon was save by transfers from Fianna Faiil's Frank Chambers

In the recent Local Elections in Mayo Blackie Gavin (FF) received more transfers from Eugene Lavin (FG) than Brendan Henaghan received (FG). Giving Blackie the last seat

Both happened with n the final count

It will be interesting to see how people vote "down ticket".  If your first choice is a protest vote, and you give 2 and 3 to Ff/FG, it's the same as giving a 1 to FF/FG

[Hound]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition

[seafoid]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition

A bit early for SF. FF need 2 more elections to recover. SF have that time to ensure they don't.  Neoliberalism is breaking down too so FG will also be vulnerable.

[haranguerer]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition

You really think there are plenty of SF voters there who won't vote for them with Gerry as leader? That's good to hear, but I think myself there are more who vote for SF because of Gerry than don't vote for them because of Gerry.

In all honesty, I think what the exit polls are showing is exactly what was expected.

[AZOffaly]

That looks like a bit of an implosion from FG and Labour. Kenny has been brutal in the campaign.

It looks like FF and FG are the only option so expect new poling cards in the post in a couple of months.

[Maguire01]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition

You really think there are plenty of SF voters there who won't vote for them with Gerry as leader? That's good to hear, but I think myself there are more who vote for SF because of Gerry than don't vote for them because of Gerry.

In all honesty, I think what the exit polls are showing is exactly what was expected.

Those who vote because of Gerry, do you think any of them wouldn't vote SF if Mary-Lou took over?

[Maguire01]

The percentages in the exit polls - assume that's just first preferences? If so, really difficult to make much sense of it with the size if the Independents vote.

[seafoid]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition

A bit early for SF. FF need 2 more elections to recover. SF have that time to ensure they don't.  Neoliberalism is breaking down too so FG will also be vulnerable. AAA PBP did very well

[seafoid]

FF remind me of glory glory Man Utd. Reduced expectations.

[seafoid]

That looks like a bit of an implosion from FG and Labour. Kenny has been brutal in the campaign.

It looks like FF and FG are the only option so expect new poling cards in the post in a couple of months.

FG read the national mood very badly

[AQMP]

RTE exit poll has FG less than 25%. According to it the smaller parties and independents seem to have done better than the poll last night. But as posters rightly say there's no indication on where transfers might go. I'm still going with SF to get fewer than 25 seats

[muppet]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

This was the big opportunity for SF. FF in disarray and FG/Labour coming out of an unpopular government after Troika imposed austerity. FF will probably improve next time and Kenny will not be leader for the next election, so expect an improvement from FG.

Adams is toxic to most people in the 26. Worshippers won't get this so there is little point in even debating it with them. But SF really needs to ask itself, does it want to represent the people interests, or Gerry Adams interests?

[AQMP]

Worshipping and hatred are both blind muppet. By you logic had SF got 30% you'd have been saying they should have got 35%.  The phrases"there's no point debating is always a good retreat strategy😛

[AZOffaly]

Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.

I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.

This was the big opportunity for SF. FF in disarray and FG/Labour coming out of an unpopular government after Troika imposed austerity. FF will probably improve next time and Kenny will not be leader for the next election, so expect an improvement from FG.

Adams is toxic to most people in the 26. Worshippers won't get this so there is little point in even debating it with them. But SF really needs to ask itself, does it want to represent the people interests, or Gerry Adams interests?

Disagree about this being the big chance. I think this was always the set up shot. I do think Adams might serve the party in the south better by handing over the reins to Mary Lou or Pearse.

However the big opportunity for SF is of FF and FG go into power together and leave SF as the main opposition. That would put them in a great position for the next election.