The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[muppet]

Kenny will have to go if this turns out like this tomorrow.

Really?

With those figures FG & FF will easily form a government.

Adams position would be the most untenable if that poll is correct.

[OgraAnDun]

There's no point discussing this topic with you judging by your posts on the FG thread, but virtually any reasonably sensible party would be a better alternative to the shower

There are things about FG's handling of the austerity that can easily be criticised. But it has to be said that under their watch that austerity has ended and so things will improve.

Hopefully the opinion polls are wrong or there is a serious transfer of votes to the 'non-establishment parties' after the first count. If FG get back in at all in any form as the bigger party, watch the Irish Water prosecutions and the evictions mount up in the next 12-24 months.

Hopefully the Irish water prosecutions will start, as there are many people with plenty of money stealing their service.

We'll see if the austerity has finished or whether that was a nice sweetener of a budget to try and buy an extra few seats today. There are plenty of people without 'lots of money' being chased by Irish Water to pay up.

[Farrandeelin]

Kenny will have to go if this turns out like this tomorrow.

Really?

With those figures FG & FF will easily form a government.

Adams position would be the most untenable if that poll is correct.

I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.

[AQMP]

Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??

[Harold Disgracey]

Projection from @ElectionStatsIE based on exit poll.

Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI exit poll seat projections:
FG: 48
FF: 40
SF: 26
IND: 21
LAB: 9
GP: 4
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2

Will be interesting to see if he is anywhere close.

[muppet]

Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??

If it turns out that FF come out with a bagful more seats than SF then it should be curtains for Gerry.

If Kenny can form a government he will survive (although he should go for lots of reasons as soon as possible afterwards - ach sin scéal eile) because that is the way politics works.

[Tony Baloney]

Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??

I was reading on Twitter during the week that SF were looking at 20%. Any increase since 2011 in the current political climate was absolutely inevitable. You say 50% increase, some might say a 5% increase which doesn't quite have the same ring to it!

[ONeill]

SF have well and truly smashed the traditional duopoly.

It was true. All the Mexicans needed was a bit of northern protestant work ethic.

[armaghniac]

FF will have well over 50% more seats than SF, they will get more transfers, Martin will not be under pressure. Eamon Ryan has had a good day too, perhaps my comment about the Green not getting in Dublin Rathdown was premature, there was talk of SDs and Renua, but the Greens are now also a possible minor partner.

Kenny will be under pressure. He deserves this for appointing Phil Hogan to set up Irish Water, a complete chancer who could then clear off from his handiwork. If he had given the job to Coveney or Varadkar they would at least have known that they would have to justify their work in the future and might have done a half decent job.

[Lone Shark]

I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.

If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.

We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.

Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?

[Aaron Boone]

Normal polls and exit polls have a poor recent record internationally.

I think those  shy voters hv voted FG 2  keep the recovery going.

[muppet]

SF were up against FF, in particular, a party ruined having delivered the country from boom to bust. They were also up against FG/Labour, parties who started off in an IMF straight jacket and who didn't do a very good job of getting out of that jacket.

It was the ultimate open goal, and yet FG remain the largest party with FF roaring back.

If not FG/FF then FF or FG will have to talk to SF along with a load of others. I would guess that Adams head would be a deal breaker for either party.

So either SF somehow get into government and Adams would most likely have to go, or they sit in opposition with either a huge FG/FF majority government, or the have a reduced influence in opposition behind either a weak FG or FF led government. Either way it wasn't a good day for them.

Caveat: Exit Poll are just more polls and final transfers can change things an awful lot.

[armaghniac]

I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.

If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.

We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.

Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?

Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.

The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.

[Lone Shark]

I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.

If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.

We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.

Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?

Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.

The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.

I don't know that this would be the case though. Rabble rousing works up to a point and there will always be a sizeable minority that falls for impassioned ranting about everything with no logical thought, however to actually win an election and become the largest party in the Dáil, Sinn Féin would have to move to the centre to a considerable degree. In western society, the only way you win elections is by being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on an economic catastrophe, or else by seizing the middle. Bertie Ahern knew it, Tony Blair knew it, and Sinn Féin will know it too.

Anyway, things are still quite fragile - I'll take my chances on left wing loolahs down the road, if it means avoiding a hung Dáil and a repeat election now - that certainly won't benefit anyone.

[Owenmoresider]

I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.

If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.

We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.

Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?

Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.

The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.

I don't know that this would be the case though. Rabble rousing works up to a point and there will always be a sizeable minority that falls for impassioned ranting about everything with no logical thought, however to actually win an election and become the largest party in the Dáil, Sinn Féin would have to move to the centre to a considerable degree. In western society, the only way you win elections is by being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on an economic catastrophe, or else by seizing the middle. Bertie Ahern knew it, Tony Blair knew it, and Sinn Féin will know it too.

Anyway, things are still quite fragile - I'll take my chances on left wing loolahs down the road, if it means avoiding a hung Dáil and a repeat election now - that certainly won't benefit anyone.

If FF end up going in with FG it'll almost certainly cause a irrevocable split in FF, and leave SF to be able to move into the centre ground that FF will be effectively vacating. Wouldn't mind an FF/SF arrangement but it'll probably need more numbers to be viable. Time will tell.