The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[deiseach]

Good article on RTÉ's website on the 'rules' for getting elected. It addresses the question I asked Hardy above:

For a candidate to have a good chance of getting elected they have to be in the frame on the first count.  This means that, as a general rule, in a five-seat constituency the candidate has to come in the first five on the first count.

In a three-seat constituency the candidate has to be in the first three places and in the first four in a four-seat constituency.

In the 2011 general election, there were only 11 candidates who came from outside the frame to get elected. In other words, 93% of those elected were within the frame on the first count.

So 11 people out of 43 constituencies managed to get elected despite being outside the medals after the first count. They are not good odds, are they?

[muppet]

Good article on RTÉ's website on the 'rules' for getting elected. It addresses the question I asked Hardy above:

For a candidate to have a good chance of getting elected they have to be in the frame on the first count.  This means that, as a general rule, in a five-seat constituency the candidate has to come in the first five on the first count.

In a three-seat constituency the candidate has to be in the first three places and in the first four in a four-seat constituency.

In the 2011 general election, there were only 11 candidates who came from outside the frame to get elected. In other words, 93% of those elected were within the frame on the first count.

So 11 people out of 43 constituencies managed to get elected despite being outside the medals after the first count. They are not good odds, are they?

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

[Hardy]

On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.

I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?

Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007, where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.

I heard some psephologist on the radio quote it. He just gave the bald statistic as I stated it and the subsequent discussion made it clear that it means the 91% includes the poll-toppers.

Either way, it wouldn't make much difference percentage-wise.

Either (if the statistics refers to 91% of all seats):
Of 166 seats, 91% were filled as they would be after the first count – that is 151 were decided and 15 were undecided. 100% of poll-toppers were elected. Remove them from the equation. (With 43 constituencies) there were 15 (12%) of  the 123 remaining seats still at issue, meaning 89% of the seats filled by non-poll-toppers were decided after the first count in this scenario.

Or (if the statistics refers to 91% of seats not filled by poll-toppers):
Of 166 seats, 43 were filled by the poll-toppers as they would be after the first count. 91% (112) of the remaining 123 were filled as they would have been after the first count. In combination, 155 of 166 or 93% were filled as they would have been after the first count.

I  think.


Edit: I've just seen your post above - so it looks like Scenario 2. However, that's just one election. The quote I heard referred to the statistics over all history and the ensuing discussion seemed to be on the basis of Scenario 1.

I dunno.

[deiseach]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

[muppet]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.

[Declan]

Interesting breakdown of newly registered voters this time around. Assuming they are in the18-25 group does this point to a change in voting patterns in the constituencies where they are higher than normal each election ncycle ??

[muppet]

I don't know how many of them will vote, but 961 new voters could have a massive influence in somewhere like Mayo.

[From the Bunker]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.

Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.

[muppet]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.

Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.

Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.

[Maguire01]

I don't know how many of them will vote, but 961 new voters could have a massive influence in somewhere like Mayo.

That's about 770 on a very optimistic 80% turnout, split across the various parties and candidates where the quota last time was over 10,000. It could be significant in a tight fight, but I wouldn't be convinced. Not that we'll ever really know the impact.

Would be interesting to see how much growth in the register that represents, compared to other elections.

[Maguire01]

Cavan/Monaghan: Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF); Heather Humphreys (FG); Brendan Smith (FF); Kathryn Reilly (SF).

Not sure about this. FG to go from 3 seats to 1 (albeit that the constituency has lost a seat)? Reilly lost out last time and being SF's Cavan rep, she's lost a big chunk of her constituency this time. They'd need very good vote management to pull it off.

[seafoid]

FG were very badly advised tactically. They didn't improve their support one iota since the first day of canvassing.

[From the Bunker]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.

Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.

Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.

Yeah, but this had a local audience and she got great exposure along with a love in with Vincent. He really played to her tune.

[muppet]

Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?

Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.

I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.

Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.

Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.

Yeah, but this had a local audience and she got great exposure along with a love in with Vincent. He really played to her tune.

Serious question, why didn't the Shinners go with Gerry Murray?

[seafoid]

Sf plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would work