The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[seafoid]

Thanks Declan
Very interesting.

FG SF plus SD might work

[AZOffaly]

Interesting. If he's right, the Labour Parlimentary party will be :
Dublin Fingal: Brendan Ryan (Labour).
Kildare North: Emmet Stagg (Labour).
Kildare South: Mark Wall (Labour).
Longford/Westmeath: Willie Penrose (Labour)
Louth: Ged Nash (Labour).
Tipperary: Alan Kelly (Labour).
Wexford: Brendan Howlin (Labour)

Who will be their next leader? Ged Nash? Surely Alan Kelly would be in with a shout, and that could be catastrophic for them. Would Howlin step back into the forefront?

[armaghniac]

Dublin Rathdown: Shane Ross (Ind); Alan Shatter (FG); Catherine Martin (Green Party).

A Green here would rather a turn up for the books.
Labour are no doubt hosed, but FF, sitting TD Matthews and FG are all after that seat.

[ashman]

This is like the Eurovision the counting of the votes is the best thing .

The lead in is boring .

[deiseach]

This is like the Eurovision the counting of the votes is the best thing .

The lead in is boring .

ashman: douze points.

[deiseach]

Would Alan Kelly survive a Labour blowout? I'm sceptical. Some people, Willie Penrose being the best example, can buck the national trend. I'm not sure Kelly would in such a competitive constituency.

[Ash Smoker]

Would Alan Kelly survive a Labour blowout? I'm sceptical. Some people, Willie Penrose being the best example, can buck the national trend. I'm not sure Kelly would in such a competitive constituency.

Tipperary loves electing politicians whose only purpose is to annoy the rest of the country!
Alan Kelly might seem arrogant and obnoxious to everyone else, but in a Tipperary context he'd be bordering on humble.

[AZOffaly]

Thus spake a Limerick man (If I remember correctly).

To be honest, Kelly is a senior government minister and should be a lock, especially given his piggybacking of the new jobs in Silvermines and Nenagh. However his obnoxiousness in the way he carried himself recently is putting his seat in doubt. If he does survive, I hope he'd learn from it.

Point taken on Michael Lowry though!

[deiseach]

Tipperary loves electing politicians whose only purpose is to annoy the rest of the country!
Alan Kelly might seem arrogant and obnoxious to everyone else, but in a Tipperary context he'd be bordering on humble.

Aye, but he was seen as vulnerable at the start of the campaign and things have not gotten better for Labour as it has progressed. I see Paddy Power have Kelly as fourth in Tipp so there might be something in what Ivan says. On the flip side he has Paudie Coffey hanging on in Waterford despite the money deserting him over the last three weeks.

Edit: in fairness, he hasn't plucked his Waterford prediction out of thin air. He thinks "the fact that [Butler] has never stood for election before" will be crucial.

[mick999]

Good analysis Declan, but I can't see the Greens getting the 2 seats you've predicted with Eamonn Ryan and Catherine Martin ..

If the bookies are correct, these 2 seats would actually be 1 Labour ( Kevin Humphres) and 1 additional FG (Josepha Madigan) coming in ahead of Shatter ..

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/general-election-constituencies/dublin-bay-south
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/general-election-constituencies/dublin-rathdown

[Hound]

Personally think FG will do a bit better than the latest PP or Yates predictions.
On the basis that overall they are still a bit more transfer friendly than FF and SF, so I could see them getting a decent proportion of late seats.

[Dinny Breen]

I would be surprised if Kildare South: Mark Wall (Labour) gets in. He has lost part of his Dad's stronghold to the Laois constituency the South West Kildare Kildangan-Monasterevin-Churchtown area.

Heydon and Ó Fearghaíl will return and it will be a dog fight between the 2 Fiona's (FF and FG) and Wall. I think FF Fiona will get that last seat.

[AZOffaly]

Personally think FG will do a bit better than the latest PP or Yates predictions.
On the basis that overall they are still a bit more transfer friendly than FF and SF, so I could see them getting a decent proportion of late seats.

The estimated 17-20% undecideds are going to be a major factor. If someone is not exercised enough to be a definite left voter, then the chances are they are undecided between FF/FG and Lab. I'd expect a bounce in those percentages to Labour and FG.

[Shamrock Shore]

Dun Laoghaire

Sean Barrett (FG) - automatically elected
Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG)
Richard Boyd Barrett (PPP/IA)
Mary Hanifin (FF)

[armaghniac]

On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc 

Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.

I'd say FG +2 on this, FF maybe -1, SF - 3 as they are not transfer friendly, Labour to squeeze one more seat somewhere.

I don't think FF + SF + SD would be enough.