The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[macdanger2]

Re-electing this government risks sending the wrong message, again, and the inevitable hubris would set in. As for the HSE, that was Harney's (I think) solution to the underwhelming Regional Health Boards. But things got far worse with another layer of administrators to add to the financial black hole. SF are talking about throwing more money at this, which is the last thing it needs. The other parties are only paying lip series to the fiasco but in reality they are carefully steering well clear. Any solution must start by taking on the consultants, but this has never been done to any successful degree. As to why, I am open to explanations.

If you want "take on" consultants, unions or the like then you need to be organised yourself. There are highly paid consulants in Irish hospitals who would operate on people but who do not do so because the patient isn't ready because of delays in tests, or becuase there is no theatre nurse or whatever. Private hospitals organise the hospital to make maximum use of the most expensive staff, public hospitals do not. Having ensured that these delays do not exist then you can pressure the consultants to do so more, but not before.

As for planning, the mandarins have way more influence than most people think. For example, do you know it is national planning policy NOT to provide sufficient parking at new houses in Dublin?

The thinking is we will all use the bus and that our kids will never be able to buy cars because there will be nowhere to park. The 9-5, Monday to Friday mandarins think we should all be able to live with the bus services provided and without cars. The reality is that bin lorries and ambulances can't get in or out of the crowded new estates due to the crazy under-resourcing of parking. And the kids can't afford to move out as they can't get mortgages adding to the car space pressure.

These policies are under the control of the Minister, but like many things it comes about because of big picture planning issues.

We pay consultants as public employees, while they have their own private businesses and allow them to use public facilities for these businesses. That should end for a start. If they have time to run a private, competing business, then they are not full time employees and should not be paid as such. Imagine Michael O'Leary learning that full time Ryanair pilots had their own businesses, using his planes, in their spare time.

Added to that, the consultants run most of our health facilities, so blaming 'yourself' for not having theatre nurses, or delays in testing, while absolving the consultants, who by now in this conversation are having it everyway, is madness.

As for the 'big picture' planning issue. What the big picture is, is highly debatable. It might appear to come under the minister's remit, but it is the mandarins and the local councils and their planners who implement it. If they want people to use public transport more, Which I have no problem with, they might start by providing better public transport and not just for 9 -5 workers, rather than choking new estates with a lack of parking.

Consultants don't run ANY of our health facilities, hospitals/clinics have mangers who run the service

[Esmarelda]

I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.


He came up with the following:

Fine Gael   60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail   36 (38)
Sinn Fein   23.5 (26.5)
Independents   16
Labour   10
AAA/PAP   4.5 (5.5)
SD   3
Renua   2.5
ULA   1
Green   1 (0)

The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.

So basically FG losses picked up by SF and FF. Interesting.

It's the bookies though, so surely changing based on the money being placed? Otherwise how / why is the SF price going in the opposite direction to the polls?

Of course, but then money isn't usually placed without reason.

[muppet]

The first Google search I looked up came up with this list:

Board of directors[edit]
The members of the New Interim HSE Board, as of 17 February 2013, were:[1]

Dr. Ambrose McLoughlin, Chairman and Secretary General, Department of Health,
Mr. Tony O'Brien, Deputy CEO/Director General Designate, HSE
Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health
Mr. Paul Barron, Assistant Secretary, Primary Care & Eligibility Division, Department of Health
Ms. Bairbre NicAongusa, Assistant Secretary, Finance, Performance Evaluation, Information, EU International, Research & Resource Allocation Division, Dept of Health.
Dr. Aine Carroll, HSE National Director, Clinical Strategy & Programmes (replaced Dr. Barry White)
Dr. Philip Crowley, HSE National Director, Quality & Patient Safety
Ms. Laverne McGuinness, HSE National Director, Integrated Services – Performance & Financial Management
Mr. Jim Breslin, Secretary General of the Department of Children and Youth Affairs.
Ms. Frances Spillane, Assistant Secretary, National Human Resources and Professional Regulation Division,Department of Health
Ms. Geraldine Fitzpatrick, Assistant Secretary, Department of Health (replaced Mr. Brian Gilroy, former HSE National Director, Integrated Services – Reconfiguration)

I know the above has changed since 2013, but there are a lot of Doctors on that list.

And then I decided to try the Mater:

http://www.mater.ie/about-us/corporate-structure/executivecommittee/

Here is the list of the Executive Management team:

Ms. Mary Day - CEO and Chair of Executive Management Committee
Ms. Caroline Pigott - Director of Finance
Prof. Conor O'Keane - Clinical Director
Prof. Tim Lynch - Deputy Chair, Medical Executive & Postgraduate Dean
Prof. Brendan Kinsley - Chair, Medical Executive
Mr. Conor Shields - Honorary Secretary, Medical Executive
Sr. Margherita Rock - Director of Mission Effectiveness
Ms. Mairead Curran - Interim Director of Nursing
Mr. Paul Burke - Director of HR

The first is an Adjunct Associate Professor of Nursing
The next is an accountant.
The four are CONSULTANTS
There rest are a Nun, a Nursing manager and a HR specialist.

There are more but there are no biographies on the site.

It is obviously bollix to state that consultants don't run any of our health facilities.

I persoanlly had reason to attend a meeting with one facility for malpractice and was faced by a consultant and a nurse manager.

[macdanger2]

Board of directors and executive management team - what exactly are their roles in running a hospital??

If your role is day to day management of a hospital, you're clearly no longer working as a consultant. If you're a consultant doctor working in management, you're no longer on a consultant contract

[muppet]

Board of directors and executive management team - what exactly are their roles in running a hospital??

If your role is day to day management of a hospital, you're clearly no longer working as a consultant. If you're a consultant doctor working in management, you're no longer on a consultant contract

Eh.....

As for the 2nd bit, do they wipe away the fact that they are consultants when they become managers?

Is it untrue to say that a Primary School Teacher is Taoiseach?

[muppet]

7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.

[trileacman]

7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.

Don't get your grief here, I'd be worried if the people running a hospital weren't doctors. If that board consisted of 4 plumbers and a brickie I'd be questioning it. Can you provide evidence that those boards members are running their own bit on the side.

[muppet]

7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.

Don't get your grief here, I'd be worried if the people running a hospital weren't doctors. If that board consisted of 4 plumbers and a brickie I'd be questioning it. Can you provide evidence that those boards members are running their own bit on the side.

I never claimed that those particular consultants were running anything on the side.

However, a quick Google of the first Professor, who is listed as a Consultant, brings this up: http://www.specialistinfo.com/intl/ei/consget_ei.php?con=okeapath01

I honestly don't know for sure if it means anything, but it lists his public and private practices as both being in Dublin 7 (presumably at the Mater). It says the directory was last updated yesterday, but I can't vouch for its reliability.

[macdanger2]

So are you saying that the Board of Directors and executive management team are responsible for the day to day running of the hospital?

Once they become mangers, yes, they are no longer employed as consultants. It's not untrue to say that the Taoiseach is qualified as a teacher but it is untrue to say that teachers run the country.

You seem to be saying that consultants are running hospitals inefficiently in order to benefit from the delays by working on the side?? Apart from this being a wild and presumably unfounded accusation, you'd have to be employed as a consultant to benefit from this and by definition couldn't be employed as hospital management.

[muppet]

So are you saying that the Board of Directors and executive management team are responsible for the day to day running of the hospital?

Once they become mangers, yes, they are no longer employed as consultants. It's not untrue to say that the Taoiseach is qualified as a teacher but it is untrue to say that teachers run the country.

You seem to be saying that consultants are running hospitals inefficiently in order to benefit from the delays by working on the side?? Apart from this being a wild and presumably unfounded accusation, you'd have to be employed as a consultant to benefit from this and by definition couldn't be employed as hospital management.

WTF!

Where did I say that?


As for an Executive Management team running a hospital day to day, what do you think an Executive Management team does? Seriously??

The Board of Directors is a different matter, but yet they still have overall responsibility for the way a hospital is run. The Executive Management is accountable to the Board.

Are you seriously trying to argue that neither of these committees are in any way connected to the running of a hospital?

[macdanger2]

Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests". 

To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.

Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.

[seafoid]

Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests". 

To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.

Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.

the consultants have a lot of power and are one vested interest group. Dysfunction in the HSE is shared around and is not the sole province of the Executive. There are all sorts of power plays in operation. 

[muppet]

Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests". 

To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.

Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.

Despite your paraphrasing of my comments from a number of posts, they still actually hold up well enough. The best you can come up with is 'you haven't a clue'. No real argument, no link to anything?

I have proven that operational management include consultants. Despite you firstly denying this (and no acknowledgement since that you were wrong) and then trying to twist your way out of it. Operational management include consultants. Active consultants using the Mater site as an example. That is a fact.

You claimed that consultants couldn't be blamed for day to day inadequacies in the health service, and you blamed the operational management. Fine. I would sack the Operational Management as you call them, or the Executive Management team as they are actually called, in its entirety, consultants and all. That would be a great start.

Finally, you never tackled the truly bizarre issue of our paying some consultants over €150,000 a year for working part time, while they use our public facilities for their private practices. For me, this is the very first thing I would tackle in our health service.

How on earth can it be remotely efficient to use, for an example, a publicly funded hospital's MRI for a private business?

Finally, we haven't mentioned the IMO. The consultants have a union, along with other doctors, they sit on management and they have their own private businesses. As I said above, they want to have it every way.

Here is the Chair of their Consultant Committee: http://www.imo.ie/news-media/news-press-releases/2016/chair-of-the-consultant-c/index.xml

His faux lip service to Irish Doctors emigrating ignores the closed shop and the apparent nepotism of his industry. Many doctors emigrate simply because they are not son of doctors and don't seem to be able become GPs or other desirable positions, unlike the those of the correct pedigree. It appears to be a closed shop, with a strong union, backed by its members on the other side of the public service table in management, some of whom incredibly are also in private business.

And all of the above is without mentioning the darwinian practice of Junior Doctors' rosters. All endorsed by their own union. And their consultants. And their hospital management, including consultants.

So yes, I personally would start with the consultants. Clue or no clue.

[macdanger2]

"executive management" and "operational management" - do you understand the difference between the two??

I never "tackled" your point re consultants working both privately and publicly because I don't disagree with you on it.

[Declan]

The only bookie to have gone bankrupt gives his opinion

It was a short, sharp, three-week blitzkrieg campaign. I have looked at it constituency by constituency, as you will see below. From my analysis, the gamechanger will be the decimation of Labour Party - denoting a shift to the hard left from a moderate social democracy. The outcome will probably also result in a new Labour leader, more than likely Ged Nash.

It will also produce the worst conceivable Fine Gael performance, given their prior expectations of 60 seats and upwards. Remember, they held 76 seats in 2011. 
This will inevitability prompt a change of government, given that the Fine Gael/Labour Coalition will not be able to span the gap of the more than 20 TDs required for a working Dáil majority.
You will also see a significant recovery right across the country for Fianna Fáil, giving a clear endorsement to Micheal Martin's leadership. The rejuvenation of Fianna Fáil will bolster a determination not to prop up Fine Gael in a grand coalition, or to play the role of the minor party in office. 
At this remove, it is impossible to imagine a special delegate ard fheis to endorse an Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil programme. Arguments based on a "parity of esteem" could reopen the discussion about a rotating Taoiseach.
 
When the Dáil resumes on March 10 there's going to be no agreement on forming a government at all.Be prepared for a period with an interim incumbent caretaker administration until Easter and beyond. 

One might also expect recriminations within Fine Gael to start a leadership crisis for Enda Kenny. This time, his survival prospects will be far from certain.He will be blamed personally for the poor outcome, along with Michael Noonan for the wrong calls on 'Fiscal Space' and the great USC giveaway.But all four party leaders could well face threats to their leadership over the next year.

The country and Ireland Inc will get on just fine with the permanent government (civil service) helping a lame-duck administration. There'll be endless posturing, uncertainty, false speculation, jockeying for position - and enough hot air to worry climate change scientists.

Then another, November election may ensue. Exciting times for our democracy.
Here's my best calculation of the likely outcome for Friday's poll:
 

Carlow/Kilkenny: John McGuinness (FF); John Paul Phelan (FG); Kathleen Funchion (SF); Bobby Aylward (FF); Pat Deering (FG).


Cavan/Monaghan: Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF); Heather Humphreys (FG); Brendan Smith (FF); Kathryn Reilly (SF).
 

Clare: Timmy Dooley (FF); Pat Breen (FG); Dr Michael Harty (Ind); Joe Carey (FG).


Cork East: David Stanton (FG); Kevin O'Keeffe (FF); Pat Buckley (SF); Tom Barry (FG).


Cork North Central: Billy Kelleher (FF); Jonathan O'Brien (SF); Dara Murphy (FG); Mick Barry (AAA).
 

Cork North West: Michael Creed (FG); Michael Moynihan (FF); John Paul O'Shea (Ind).


Cork South Central: Michael McGrath (FF); Simon Coveney (FG); Micheál Martin (FF); Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (SF).


Cork South West: Jim Daly (FG); Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony (FF); Noel Harrington (FG).
 

Donegal: Pearse Doherty (SF); Pat the Cope Gallagher (FF); Joe McHugh (FG); Charlie McConalogue (FF); Pádraic Mac Lochlainn (SF).


Dublin Bay North: Richard Bruton (FG); Finian McGrath (Ind); Sean Haughey (FF); Denise Mitchell (SF); Tommy Broughan (Ind).


Dublin Bay South: Eoghan Murphy (FG); Chris Andrews (SF); Lucinda Creighton (Renua); Eamon Ryan (Green Party).
 

Dublin Central: Mary Lou McDonald (SF); Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind); Paschal Donohoe (FG).


Dublin Fingal: Clare Daly (Ind); Darragh O'Brien (FF); James Reilly (FG); Louise O'Reilly (SF); Brendan Ryan (Labour).


Dublin Mid-West: Eoin Ó'Broin (SF); Frances Fitzgerald (FG); John Curran (FF); Gino Kenny (AAA/PBP).
 

Dublin North West: Dessie Ellis (SF); Róisín Shorthall (Social Democrats); Noel Rock (FG).


Dublin Rathdown: Shane Ross (Ind); Alan Shatter (FG); Catherine Martin (Green Party).


Dublin South Central: Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF); Joan Collins (Ind); Bríd Smith (AAA/PBP); Catherine Byrne (FG).
 

Dublin South West: Paul Murphy (AAA/PBP); Seán Crowe (SF); Colm Brophy (FG); John Lahart (FF); Sarah Holland (SF).


Dublin West: Leo Varadkar (FG); Paul Donnelly (SF); Jack Chambers (FF); Ruth Coppinger (AAA/PBP).


Dun Laoghaire: Sean Barrett (FG); Richard Boyd Barrett (AAA/PBP); Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG); Mary Hanafin (FF).
 

Galway East: Sean Canney (Ind); Paul Connaughton (FG); Anne Rabbitte (FF).


Galway West: Éamon Ó Cuiv (FF); Seán Kyne (FG); Noel Grealish (Ind); Catherine Connolly (Ind); Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF).


Kerry: Michael Healy-Rae (Ind); Jimmy Deenihan (FG); Brendan Griffin (FG); John Brassil (FF); Martin Ferris (SF).


Kildare North: Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats); Bernard Durkan (FG); James Lawless (FF); Emmet Stagg (Labour).
 

Kildare South: Martin Heydon (FG); Seán Ó Fearghail (FF); Mark Wall (Labour).


Laois: Sean Fleming (FF); Charlie Flanagan (FG); Brian Stanley (SF).


Limerick City: Michael Noonan (FG); Willie O'Dea (FF); Maurice Quinlivan (SF); Kieran O'Donnell (FG).


Limerick County: Niall Collins (FF); Patrick O'Donovan (FG); Emmet O'Brien (Ind).
 

Longford/Westmeath: Robert Troy (FF); James Bannon (FG); Willie Penrose (Labour); Kevin Boxer Moran (Ind).


Louth: Gerry Adams (SF); Fergus O'Dowd (FG); Declan Breathnach (FF); Imelda Munster (SF); Ged Nash (Labour).


Mayo: Michael Ring (FG); Enda Kenny (FG); Dara Calleary (FF); Lisa Chambers (FF).


Meath East: Thomas Byrne (FF); Helen McEntee (FG); Darren O'Rourke (SF).


Meath West: Damian English (FG); Peadar Tóibín (SF); Shane Cassells (FF).


Offaly: Barry Cowen (FF); Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (FG); Eddie Fitzpatrick (FF).


Roscommon/Galway: Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind); Denis Naughten (Ind); Maura Hopkins (FG).


Sligo/Leitrim: Martin Kenny (SF); Tony McLoughlin (FG); Marc MacSharry (FF); John Perry (FG).


Tipperary: Michael Lowry (Ind); Seamus Healy (Ind); Tom Hayes (FG); Michael Smith (FF); Alan Kelly (Labour).


Waterford: John Deasy (FG); David Cullinane (SF); John Halligan (Ind); Paudie Coffey (FG).


Wexford: Mick Wallace (Ind); Paul Kehoe (FG); Brendan Howlin (Labour); Malcolm Byrne (FF); James Browne (FF).


Wicklow: Stephen Donnelly (Social Democrats); Simon Harris (FG); John Brady (SF); Andrew Doyle (FG); Pat Casey (FF).


This forecast tally means: Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.


While it's impossible to predict with complete accuracy given vagaries of our PR system, I'm certain this outcome is likely to be more right than wrong. Momentum in the last week of the campaign has been significant, predominantly moving away from the Government parties.