The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[Declan]

Latest polls show support for FG down to 26% so very interesting times ahead if those numbers hold true on election day.

My constituency is Meath East and I'd have thought it was a straightforward split 2 FG (sitting TDs) and FF replacing the Lab sitting TD. However chatting to canvassers last night it seems that SF are polling at or around 14% so the last seat is a battle between them and FG which I must admit came as a surprise to me.

So many permutations but I'd expect  FG's message to change from lets keep the recovery going to let's scare the shite of them/can you imagine what'll happen if we let these loopers take control etc

[deiseach]

Am I a saddo for finding it all very exciting? As Declan says, the permutation are endless. Imagine a four seater where FG, FG, Labour, SF and some Independent are all running neck-and-neck. Okay, Labour is a bit of a stretch, but the transfers of a second FG candidate might bring them up to the 20% mark. Alternatively you can think of a second FG candidate lifted up by Labour transfers. That's five people who have a quota, but only four seats. That kind of scenario is going to be replicated up and down the country. I'll be getting the beers in for Saturday week!

[AZOffaly]

I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.

I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.

[AQMP]

I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.

I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.

That's called the NI Executive AZ!!   But it sort of works, except you end up with a permanent coalition of the usual suspects.

[seafoid]

Am I a saddo for finding it all very exciting? As Declan says, the permutation are endless. Imagine a four seater where FG, FG, Labour, SF and some Independent are all running neck-and-neck. Okay, Labour is a bit of a stretch, but the transfers of a second FG candidate might bring them up to the 20% mark. Alternatively you can think of a second FG candidate lifted up by Labour transfers. That's five people who have a quota, but only four seats. That kind of scenario is going to be replicated up and down the country. I'll be getting the beers in for Saturday week!

It is very interesting. Especially the SF thing

[AZOffaly]

I find it very interesting too. Not necessarily the different political outlooks, and certainly not excitement about who gets in, but very interesting in the races, how transfers will work etc. The fact that Labour have been supplanted as the left party, by their own decisions as well as by the emergence of Sinn Fein is interesting, especially as Sinn Fein are more like a traditional left leaning party, whereas Labour had been milk and watery for a good while. Then the hard left AAA type guys are definitely giving the whole thing a bit of a shake up. It is very interesting.

[seafoid]

Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp  and Galway East are all down 1 .

[Esmarelda]

I'm also completely engrossed in the whole process.

It's all a game and I find it intriguing to see the approaches of each party and how they manage the whole process and the debates.

Outside of FF, FG and Labour it's a lot easier as they have no previous record to defend. FG's initial approach was to repeat over and over "keep the recovery going" and it was too obvious. Clare Byrne called Noonan out on it on Prime Time early on. As someone above has said it is switching now to keep the crazies out or else.

The banking enquiry has helped FF's line that it wasn't all their fault and Martin's ability to debate has also helped. The thing is that there's a lot of old FF supporters out there that could be persuaded back.

[Canalman]

FG should hold their heads in shame  if they manage to donald duck this election up. Expect the full scare tactics/ "reds under the bed" type onslaught over the next week or so.

Heard a very interesting point been made over the weekend about the new jobs being created. Most are short term contract work, some month to month and very few permanent jobs. The guy was saying that FG are not really getting any kudos for this as the people with these jobs are still worried about losing them.

Keep saying it but FG strategists need to stop attacking SF and go for Martin and FF.

[DuffleKing]

I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.

I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.

As fair and balanced as this sounds, practically it is unworkable as there is effectively no opposition. Disaster

[Rossfan]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

[AZOffaly]

Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp  and Galway East are all down 1 .

And conversely, others have increased. Laois and Offaly are two three seaters now, whereas the old Laois-Offaly was a 5 seater.

Kerry South and Kerry North merging has also trimmed a seat, to a 5 seater, similar to Tipp. The geographical implications of this are very important. It's going to be very hard for a South Tipp candidate to hoover up North Tipp votes, so do the voters in the South all band together to pick the best local candidate, regardless of party almost?

[AZOffaly]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

Jaysus. If those figures come through, the only real option is FF/FG or FG/SF. FG/LAB would need too many independents, and they wouldn't be able to fish from their own gene pool.

[Canalman]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

Yep. A second election would be needed if those figures come in. Might be a change of leadership as well for one of the parties as well.

[AZOffaly]

If labour do as poorly as projected I would say the klaxxon is doomed.