The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[Farrandeelin]

Some of the transfer outcomes are a head scratcher!  Touch and go for MacLochlainn in Donegal.  That will be a blow for SF if he loses out.

Edit:  12th count complete, Pringle 36 ahead

Would SF regard this election as a successful one or not? Their vote increased, but it was always going to anyway. I'd say they will be disappointed to be honest.

[AQMP]

Some of the transfer outcomes are a head scratcher!  Touch and go for MacLochlainn in Donegal.  That will be a blow for SF if he loses out.

Edit:  12th count complete, Pringle 36 ahead

Would SF regard this election as a successful one or not? Their vote increased, but it was always going to anyway. I'd say they will be disappointed to be honest.

There's an SF activist on Slugger O'Toole who's been predicting around 15% for SF for the last two weeks.  Their own polling and canvassing was closer than other polls.  Looks like they may end up with 23 (though as I type it looks like MacLochlainn has lost) which again was in the region he was predicting.  I think what they didn't see was the big swing back to FF.  Also it looks like another election to me and that may not necessarily suit SF.  A period in opposition to a Grand Coalition was their preferred outcome.

[T Fearon]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

[seafoid]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else

[trileacman]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else

Yeah but those something else don't want to be in government so that 50%, some knowingly, voted for a f**k you two but ask me again in 6 months. It's a bit like a lovers rebuff. Two questions:

On what grounds do FF/FG refuse to deal? Will it be longer term strategy or carving up a programme for government?

If they do fail to produce a coalition, who decides when we return to the polls and in what time frame does it look most likely?

[T Fearon]

Will a return to the polls produce a substantially different vote that will enhance the prospects of a stable government?

[Maguire01]

There's no real prospect of a government without FF or FG, no matter how many times they run an election. Anything else just involves too many small parties and independents, impossible to hold together.

[seafoid]

A good election for SF I would think. They take a long term view.

[LeoMc]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

A second election is in the interest of the bigger parties. It allows them to fine tune their voter management / number of candidates. It does not suit the smaller parties or independents who do not have multiple candidates in a constituency though those who came close to a seat may gain votes from others who were well off the pace.

I predict a second election with marginal gains for FF/FG before the grand coalition.

[manfromdelmonte]

A good election for SF I would think. They take a long term view.

once they rid of Gerry they might get a bigger vote

he is a terrible party leader

[rrhf]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else

Lisbon treaty

[seafoid]

Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.

The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else

Lisbon treaty

Also the crash and austerity. Working class voters are far less likely to vote FF or FG now.

[Rossfan]

FF and FG are now in a damned if they do and damned if they don't situation.
If they don't and we get another election a lot of people will blame them for the mess.
If they do then they are making the Slabs the only real opposition and alternative so when the floating and the fickle get pissed off they will flock to SF.
A lot of posturing over the next few weeks

[Owenmoresider]

Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.

The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.

It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.

Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.

She got elected on the back of a plethora of Candidates with the same ideals and platforms as herself. Her natural vote was diluted initially, but returned after eliminations. If it was first past the post you'd have no voice for all those ideals.

She ended up with less than 4000. You should need 10000 votes to get to the dail. There are county councils for local politics.

The reason Dublin Central's votes are so low is to do with the demographics, the constituencies are determined by the population irrespective of eligibility to vote. Because the inner city has a large non-national population its numbers are sufficient for three seats, but the electorate is a lot smaller and the turnout is one of the lowest in the country to boot, it's an unique case amongst the 40 constituencies.

[AZOffaly]

It's fascinating. There is some squirming going on.  They will be frantically trying to suss out now whether the majority in the country who are centre/centre right/centre left voted the way they did because they demand a government that represents that view, i.e. FF and FG, or did the majority vote the way they did because they are angry at FG and went back to FF, and don't want FG in power at all.

FF need to be careful here. Not only do they risk opening the opposition door for Sinn Fein, but they also risk losing their own recovery if they make the wrong decision here.