The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[seafoid]

Good stuff, Muppet. Even if the EZ didn't have its big arse in it the Permanent Gov of the Civil Service would be there to ensure no popular wish was met.  Most voters would presumably vote for cost benefit analysis and such like but the PG knows better.

[Applesisapples]

I watched a good bit of the debate last night and was instantly grateful that I'd missed the previous one. Adams is atrocious, I can't believe anything he says even if it is true. Enda is wooden and jingoistic I could really believe he'd be at all those gift grub escapades. Martin is better than the other two but he couldn't answer a straight question and faffed about on FF's getting the country into a mess in the first place. As for Joan well god help us every time she spoke I thought it was the Ian Dempsey breakfast show. All the leaders struggled with the hard questions. One thing that set Adams apart was the other three's opportunistic exploitation of the peace process and our troubles that showed no real understanding of the North or the northern nationalist experience. With the election of Forster as DUP leader political leadership on both sides of the border has descended to pathetic depths, where are the Bertie's, Garrett's, CJ's, Paisley's and Hume's of this generation? Miriam was out of order on Danny Morrison who's conviction was set aside, who was awarded compensation and is as Adam's said a private citizen.

[seafoid]

http://www.oireachtas.ie/parliament/media/housesoftheoireachtas/Ireland-Parliamentary-Budget-Review-Preliminary-Draft.pdf

[Hound]

Enda was asked if it was fair that a couple on € 40k would save €2k in FG's economic proposals whereas the same couple on € 150k would save three times as much, i.e. €6k. He pressed play on the tape and rewound it every time Miriam repeated the question - "the point is that everyone will benefit". Surely he could have siad (and known) that the former saves 5% whilst the latter saves 4%. At worst it would have stopped her asking, at best it answers the bloody question.

Its also ignored what income tax they are paying at the moment.
A couple on €40k contributes €6k in income taxes.
A couple on €150k contributes €62k in income taxes.


My idea of a good result for this election would be a hung dail, Enda to get removed from FG leadership, and for FG to lead the government with a new Taoiseach after a 2nd election.   

[Hardy]

Here's a fascinating reflection of how the campaign has gone. I posted Paddy Power's odds for Cork South Central four weeks ago today. Below is how they've changed:

Coveney (FG) - then 1/50, now 1/33
McGrath (FF) - then 1/10, now 1/33
Martin (FF) - then 1/5, now 1/80
Buttimer (FG) - then 1/4, now 2/1
Ó Laoghaire (SF) - then 4/7, now 1/7
Lynch (Lab) - then 10/3, now 7/1

[Hardy]

Enda was asked if it was fair that a couple on € 40k would save €2k in FG's economic proposals whereas the same couple on € 150k would save three times as much, i.e. €6k. He pressed play on the tape and rewound it every time Miriam repeated the question - "the point is that everyone will benefit". Surely he could have siad (and known) that the former saves 5% whilst the latter saves 4%. At worst it would have stopped her asking, at best it answers the bloody question.

Its also ignored what income tax they are paying at the moment.
A couple on €40k contributes €6k in income taxes.
A couple on €150k contributes €62k in income taxes.

Exactly. Any half-witted TD would be briefed on this standard answer to that question.

My idea of a good result for this election would be a hung dail, Enda to get removed from FG leadership, and for FG to lead the government with a new Taoiseach after a 2nd election.   

I had the FG canvassers at the door yesterday. (They introduced themselves as doing "a bit of a last-gasp panic canvas".) They put their predicament firmly down to Kenny and were just hoping he wouldn't put another foot in it last night. They felt that with any other leader they'd be home and hosed. Whether that's true or not, it's a snapshot of what at least some activists are thinking.

[Rossfan]

Was talking to a FGite Sunday night.
Not happy with Kenny and said he should have been set aside back in 2014.
Wonder will he be set aside after the Election even if they are back in Govt?

[AZOffaly]

Serious question. If Varadker was leader of FG, would they have a serious shot at an overall majority? I think FF are picking up votes almost by default. Don't want to vote hard left, Kenny's a mess, Burton is just not at the races, so the chance of luring back old voters to FF is greater.

[deiseach]

Was talking to a FGite Sunday night.
Not happy with Kenny and said he should have been set aside back in 2014.
Wonder will he be set aside after the Election even if they are back in Govt?

[Esmarelda]

Serious question. If Varadker was leader of FG, would they have a serious shot at an overall majority? I think FF are picking up votes almost by default. Don't want to vote hard left, Kenny's a mess, Burton is just not at the races, so the chance of luring back old voters to FF is greater.

Maybe but I doubt it. I think most of FF voters that jumped ship were going to go back once they had a decent set-up and Martin has provided that.

Enda will keep some voters away alright but probably not enough to gain a majority.

If Varadker had been in the leadership role and had dealt with the homelessness issue earlier then possibly, but I presume you mean in the future.

[AZOffaly]

I meant now. As in if Varadker was Fine Gael leader right now, would they be a lot closer to an Overall Majority. If they get 60 seats with Kenny, would they get 75 or so with Varadker? Maybe only have to keep four or 5 independents sweet?

[Rossfan]

So lads and lassies - we still talking FG the biggest party, FF15 seats behind them with SF 15 behind that again.? (55-40-25??)
Labour - will they make 10? And the rest? Antichrists 5 or 6, Lucindas 2 or 3, SD 2 or 3

[AZOffaly]

So lads and lassies - we still talking FG the biggest party, FF15 seats behind them with SF 15 behind that again.? (55-40-25??)
Labour - will they make 10? And the rest? Antichrists 5 or 6, Lucindas 2 or 3, SD 2 or 3

Hard to see a Dáil being formulated with those numbers unless FF and FG get into bed together. That would be historic in itself. Of course it might be fitting that on the 100th anniversary the descendants of Dev and Michael Collins reunite!

[armaghniac]

I am guessing by the lack of histrionics on here that she didn't ask him if he was ever a member of the IRA. No doubt that would be out of line.

She did, actually. Apparently he wasn't in the IRA.

Regardless, I didn't watch a single minute of any debate as I regard it as nothing more than popcorn for media junkies and party lackies and completely irrelevant to anything in the real world. In fact I am sick of all of the candidates promising crap that most of them will be unable to even seriously propose, never mind deliver on. Mandarins in Ireland, under instruction from the EU, run this country. We saw that very clearly with Patrick Honohan. Politicians are largely irrelevant now.

Muppet, you are too easy on politicians. Mandarins may set policies over the overall envelope of expenditure and this is not a bad thing given how things can go wrong. Politicians can still do much that they choose not to do. The organisation of the HSE, the planning for housing and so on are well within the remit of politicians and they need to get up of their collectives arses and sort these things.

[Mayo4Sam]

I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative.  We could have another election before summer.

I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016