Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 430254 times)

Aaron Boone

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6405 on: February 07, 2019, 08:57:59 PM »
There wonít be border checks on day 1 (Leinster v Ulster match). Give it 6 months until Ireland is advised by EU to have the frontier with NI

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6406 on: February 07, 2019, 08:59:00 PM »
Not that it counts for much but the polls reckon the Tories would still win a General Election.

Which is absolutely mental given they are the most incompetent fools ever!

Both the Tories and Labour are in a battle with themselves to try and stay together.

Soubry and Francois canít stand on the same platform. Nor can Umunna and Mann. That canít be fudged any longer

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6407 on: February 07, 2019, 09:00:26 PM »
And when you read that report you felt the closing of the deficit was fully explained?

Given the high level nature of it, you are always going to have to deal with high level assumptions.

The closing of deficit was not fully explained, nor would I agree with it.

However, I would expect improved growth in trade due to a UI (especially in the case where the UK has steered itself away from the EU), to lead to GDP growth and the tax revenue from that to bring about an approximate balancing of books.
.

Anything more specific?

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6408 on: February 07, 2019, 09:01:18 PM »
UI means corporate tax alignment with the south and a lot of international investment. EU would definitely subsidise to the abundant waste of disproportionate civil service expenditure is restructured.
Can we afford not to have a UI

Work that up into a detailed prospectus that tells the average man on the street north and south what that will mean in terms of their pocket and service provision and you stand a chance

OK we need two documents of that nature, the second one being the existing horlicks under British Rule. I know which one Iím putting my money on.

What exactly are you asking here?

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6409 on: February 07, 2019, 09:02:30 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.
.

Is that not what he is doing?

Ball Hopper

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6410 on: February 07, 2019, 09:05:10 PM »
Anyone think the EU exit rules fell very short?  The rules should have made it very difficult to leave.

Maybe the EU will amend the "Rules to Leave" to state that any member wishing to Leave must be agreed firstly by all other EU members (parliamentary majority sufficient unless less than 60% margin in either direction will cause a referendum in that country).  Any single nation can thereby veto an exit request.

Then proceed to an Exit agreement between the member and the EU if all nations agree to allow the request to proceed. 

Finally, place the final, no further negotiations allowed, agreement on the referendum ballot in the nation wishing to leave...voters choice is to accept the agreement means Leave, reject the agreement means Remain.

No nation can request to Leave again until 10 years after such a referendum.

Just my 2 cents from afar...you boys are much closer to the action/inaction.

The solution to the current dilemma is to request UK to postpone any exit plans until such amendments are made to EU rules and then proceed as they wish. 

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6411 on: February 07, 2019, 09:08:41 PM »
That's kind of what I was getting at YC. The appeared lack of alternative options by Labour.

Is this article not a bit of a turn up? Spectator very tight wing. Maybe they actually see the DUP for the cretins they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/a-referendum-on-irish-unity-might-be-the-best-way-to-solve-the-brexit-border-issue/amp/

I think it's a simple case of English nationalism trumping any pretence that the union is precious. For many Brexiteers the preservation of the UK is important but just not as important as releasing themselves from the shackles of the EU and their delusions that some form of utopia will automatically follow. 

Previous polls carried out last year suggested that many within England would ditch the 6 counties if it became an obstruction to them getting the Brexit that they wanted. I think that article is probably just a manifestation of that. If the DUP did not hold the balance of power im Westminster my guess is that the border would already have been established in the Irish sea.   

If Labour Ďs current proposal is rejected and you would have to expect that politically May is compelled to reject it the an Irish Sea customs border could get cross party support.


DUP could have their Ulster Says No moment but the sane world would move on . Mayís government would collapse and there would have to be a general election

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6412 on: February 07, 2019, 09:11:31 PM »
There wonít be border checks on day 1 (Leinster v Ulster match). Give it 6 months until Ireland is advised by EU to have the frontier with NI

I genuinely donít think Dublin or London want a border but either would do it if needs be

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6413 on: February 07, 2019, 09:13:42 PM »
Anyone think the EU exit rules fell very short?  The rules should have made it very difficult to leave.

Maybe the EU will amend the "Rules to Leave" to state that any member wishing to Leave must be agreed firstly by all other EU members (parliamentary majority sufficient unless less than 60% margin in either direction will cause a referendum in that country).  Any single nation can thereby veto an exit request.

Then proceed to an Exit agreement between the member and the EU if all nations agree to allow the request to proceed. 

Finally, place the final, no further negotiations allowed, agreement on the referendum ballot in the nation wishing to leave...voters choice is to accept the agreement means Leave, reject the agreement means Remain.

No nation can request to Leave again until 10 years after such a referendum.

Just my 2 cents from afar...you boys are much closer to the action/inaction.

The solution to the current dilemma is to request UK to postpone any exit plans until such amendments are made to EU rules and then proceed as they wish.

If you tried to introduce those rules today several member states would veto them

Ball Hopper

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6414 on: February 07, 2019, 09:26:59 PM »
Anyone think the EU exit rules fell very short?  The rules should have made it very difficult to leave.

Maybe the EU will amend the "Rules to Leave" to state that any member wishing to Leave must be agreed firstly by all other EU members (parliamentary majority sufficient unless less than 60% margin in either direction will cause a referendum in that country).  Any single nation can thereby veto an exit request.

Then proceed to an Exit agreement between the member and the EU if all nations agree to allow the request to proceed. 

Finally, place the final, no further negotiations allowed, agreement on the referendum ballot in the nation wishing to leave...voters choice is to accept the agreement means Leave, reject the agreement means Remain.

No nation can request to Leave again until 10 years after such a referendum.

Just my 2 cents from afar...you boys are much closer to the action/inaction.

The solution to the current dilemma is to request UK to postpone any exit plans until such amendments are made to EU rules and then proceed as they wish.

If you tried to introduce those rules today several member states would veto them

True, but do all nations vote to accept new members as well?  Can one nation veto a new member? 

I don't know the answer, by the way.

yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6415 on: February 07, 2019, 09:40:02 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.
.

Is that not what he is doing?

Belatedly, probably after he seen the latest poll result.

trailer

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6416 on: February 07, 2019, 10:00:12 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

He's the elected leader of the Labour party who has consistently been anti EU. The w**kers in the labour party who elected him are at fault. They voted for a socialist revolution, what they now have is a Geography teacher in a stupid communist cap who hasn't got a f**king clue.
Brexit could be an economic disaster. I hope for my family it isn't. The Tory and Labour parties have a lot to answer for.

johnnycool

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6417 on: February 08, 2019, 01:54:07 PM »



Any similarities between beelzebub and our Sammy are purely coincidental.


RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6418 on: February 08, 2019, 02:15:27 PM »
Anything more specific?

I assume your question is related to trade?

It is widely accepted that there is a correlation between core infrastructure (transport/utilities) and productivity. Taken that given, then...


If there were a UI, we would likely see vast improvements in infrastructure in the border areas leading to improved growth in these areas. The improvement of the roads already within the ROI due to EU led investment should be consider as examples. For instance, we would most likely definitely see:
- New main road linking Monaghan to Maguiresbridge.
- Improved main road linking Enniskillen to Donegal town (via Ballyshannon).
- The A5 gets done rather than dithered over.

Then, dealing with the east coast:
- The York road junction gets done rather than dithered over.
- The Dublin-Belfast enterprise service gets new rolling stock that pulls the journey time down to around an hour (its only 100 miles). Even use of the older intercity 125s on a track fit for purpose would see a big drop in journey time - current top speed is limited to 90 mph. The enterprise service as it stands at the moment is an embarrassment. Benign topology and yet the best we can do is an average speed of ~55 mph between the 2 largest cities just 100 miles apart?

We would possibly see:
- extension of the dual carriageway from Ballygawley to Enniskillen. I wouldn't imagine this would dual carriageway over to Ballyshannon.
- improvements of the links to Warrenpoint dock so freight can be moved more quickly onto the motorway/rail network.

I'd also like to think there would be EU monies put toward improving broadband infrastructure in rural areas, which would also lead to improved economic output from our smaller businesses.
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RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6419 on: February 08, 2019, 02:17:16 PM »
What exactly are you asking here?

1. Economic prospects in event of Brexit and Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK

2. Economic prospects in event of Brexit and a United Ireland.
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