Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 618791 times)

sid waddell

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5730 on: December 13, 2018, 04:14:03 PM »
I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

How so?

We've have "democracy" rammed down our throats by Unionists for almost 100 years, are you suggesting that they would change stance on democracy if it didn't work out in their favour?

Yes, absolutely.

50% +1 will do me BUT we cannot allow bigotry and sectarianism of any kind to take hold just because the shoe is on the other foot.
In a 50% +1 scenario it will, nothing surer.

Unification must first involve a discussion of what a UI will look like and what Unionists position will be in that UI.
Convincing Unionist leaders to have that conversation will be the first challenge.
There would be many things in such a discussion that would be, to say the least, extremely unpalatable to many Irish nationalists and Republicans.

First among them would be the abolition of the tricolour and Amhran na bhFiann. And that's only a starting point.

RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5731 on: December 13, 2018, 04:26:58 PM »
I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

I usually completely disagree with sid and find him a contrary c**t at the best of times, but he's not far wrong here.

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.
(2) A UI should only happen after a meaningful (legal) framework is put in place to protect the culture and history of all as much as is practical (and without threatening others).
(3) A UI should only happen if any economic shock can be mitigated to manageable levels.

i usse an speelchekor

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5732 on: December 13, 2018, 04:32:24 PM »
I've given ye the broad plan for an All Ireland political entity on this board many times over the years.
An Irish  Confederation with 2 semi autonomous Regions -the present 6 and 26 Co areas.
The IC would have a new flagship and anthem while the 26 Co region could keep the Tricolour answer AnabhF.
A slimmed down DŠil and Northern Assembly would run internal affairs in their areas.
6 Cos Residents would be entitled to dual citizenship as now - if Britain still exists by then of course.
1 BIG CUP and 1 Cupeen so far....

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5733 on: December 13, 2018, 04:32:42 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

haranguerer

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5734 on: December 13, 2018, 04:34:01 PM »
Rubbish.

It may sound glib, but who are the loyalists going to fight? And to what end? Once we get to the stage where it has been passed, unionists will be well looked after, you can guarantee that.

And of course, 51/49 in the north would actually be 85/15 overall (those opposed in the south are extremely unlikely to be strongly and/or militantly so, so their 'against' votes aren't important in the context of your forecast bloodshed)
Are you familiar with what happened in Yugoslavia?

The possibility for murderous "ethnic cleansing" very much exists in the North, given certain conditions. A monster lurks within everybody and nationalism brings it out more than anything. People should be under no illusions that Irish nationalism or British nationalism are any more inherently benign than German, Serbian or Croatian nationalism.

In fact ethnic cleansing has a long history in the North, it happened in the South too.

The unionists would likely demand repartition at the very least and a more murderous ethnic cleansing than ever before would likely emerge in order to drive Catholic minorities out of mixed or majority Protestant areas of Antrim and Down. That would be highly unlikely to go unanswered against Protestant minorities in majority Catholic areas of the North.

This is just ludicrous.

BennyCake

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5735 on: December 13, 2018, 04:37:35 PM »
I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

These opinion polls - explain what they involve or how they are done.

To me, this thing about not being a border poll until itís clear that the majority of the north are in favour of a UI, how does anyone know for sure? The only way to find out for sure is to actually have a proper border poll.

The British govt/unionists and even Dublin, who donít want a UI, will continue to say Ďah no, thereís not enough support for it yet, so no border poll yet Ď

Itís a cop out.

RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5736 on: December 13, 2018, 04:41:23 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?

Do I have to support every word in every line to broadly agree with it?
i usse an speelchekor

RedHand88

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5737 on: December 13, 2018, 04:44:16 PM »
A Hard Border is a bit of a bogeyman, very unlikely to see any physical infrastructure, it'll be a technical border if it comes to it. The UK has repeatedly said it won't man any border and can't be compelled to by the EU in a no deal situation, the ball will be in the EU / Ireland's court if that particular chicken comes home to roost.

You're listening to kate hoey and david davis a bit too much ie idiots. If it's a hard brexit or no deal there will definitely be a hard border with infrastructure. There's no way of avoiding it.
Who is going to build it when both sides have clearly said it can't or won't happen? A solution will be found if and when the actual problem presents itself. It's as likely as Trump's Mexican wall.

lol, youíre very naive. Why do you think thereís a backstop at all then? Itís there to prevent a hard border which the people at the coal face of the negotiations knew would be inevitable if there was jo agreement.
What do people think when they hear Hard Border? Brits lining the roads in South Armagh, Aughnacloy, Strabane/Lifford. That's the Bogeyman being raised, different customs regimes doesn't necessarily mean Soldiers manning borders - Ports & Airports a different kettle of fish, but there's already processes in place there. Technical solutions will be found (if required) for goods & services if they are not already there.

They aren't there, and are nowhere near being there. We've had 2 and a half years of this and nobody has explained anything close to what's needed. Can cameras determine the visa status of passengers in a passing vehicle?? Can they determine the tax status of goods in the boot of a car?

Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5738 on: December 13, 2018, 04:47:55 PM »
I've given ye the broad plan for an All Ireland political entity on this board many times over the years.
An Irish  Confederation with 2 semi autonomous Regions -the present 6 and 26 Co areas.
The IC would have a new flagship and anthem while the 26 Co region could keep the Tricolour answer AnabhF.
A slimmed down DŠil and Northern Assembly would run internal affairs in their areas.
6 Cos Residents would be entitled to dual citizenship as now - if Britain still exists by then of course.

A lot of that sounds fairly reasonable as a starting point Rossfan.

sid waddell

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5739 on: December 13, 2018, 04:52:26 PM »
Rubbish.

It may sound glib, but who are the loyalists going to fight? And to what end? Once we get to the stage where it has been passed, unionists will be well looked after, you can guarantee that.

And of course, 51/49 in the north would actually be 85/15 overall (those opposed in the south are extremely unlikely to be strongly and/or militantly so, so their 'against' votes aren't important in the context of your forecast bloodshed)
Are you familiar with what happened in Yugoslavia?

The possibility for murderous "ethnic cleansing" very much exists in the North, given certain conditions. A monster lurks within everybody and nationalism brings it out more than anything. People should be under no illusions that Irish nationalism or British nationalism are any more inherently benign than German, Serbian or Croatian nationalism.

In fact ethnic cleansing has a long history in the North, it happened in the South too.

The unionists would likely demand repartition at the very least and a more murderous ethnic cleansing than ever before would likely emerge in order to drive Catholic minorities out of mixed or majority Protestant areas of Antrim and Down. That would be highly unlikely to go unanswered against Protestant minorities in majority Catholic areas of the North.

This is just ludicrous.
How?

In any roadmap to a united Ireland, one must consider the worst case scenario, how it could come about, and more importantly, how to proceed in a responsible fashion so that it can be avoided.

Four years ago, anybody who predicted that what has happened as regards Brexit, would happen, would have been laughed at. 

And yet here we are.

In 1987, had somebody predicted that Yugoslavia would erupt into sectarian bloodshed within four years, they would most likely have been laughed at. It happened because people irresponsibly whippped up nationalist tensions.

If you think nationalist tensions on both sides wouldn't be whipped up before any potential border poll, you're in dreamland. When people get whipped up, you get mobs. When you get mobs, you get violence. When you get violence, you get bloodshed. When you get bloodshed, you likely get death. Once people start dying, you're into a potentially disastrous and uncontrollable situation.

War doesn't happen overnight. It happens through a gradual ramping up of tensions, and then up and up it keeps ramping, people saying things they wouldn't have said before, people imagining things they wouldn't have imagined before, before it eventually all spills over.

Tensions are ramping up, and they look set to keep ramping up further, because there are people on both sides who fancy them being ramped up for what they perceive as their own gain.

It's about time they started pulling back rather continuing to ramp things up.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 05:04:01 PM by sid waddell »

sid waddell

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5740 on: December 13, 2018, 05:00:17 PM »
I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

These opinion polls - explain what they involve or how they are done.

To me, this thing about not being a border poll until itís clear that the majority of the north are in favour of a UI, how does anyone know for sure? The only way to find out for sure is to actually have a proper border poll.

The British govt/unionists and even Dublin, who donít want a UI, will continue to say Ďah no, thereís not enough support for it yet, so no border poll yet Ď

Itís a cop out.

Opinion polls are polls that are used to predict the outcome of electoral contests the world over, and which, contrary to the belief of some tinfoil hat merchants, usually give us a very good idea of the outcome of such electoral contests.

I'm not involved in an opinion polling company, so I can't explain exactly how opinion pollsters select the people they poll.

However, I generally do trust polls to give us a pretty good idea of how public opinion lies as regards electoral contests.

red hander

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5741 on: December 13, 2018, 05:46:18 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?

Do I have to support every word in every line to broadly agree with it?

There was a supermajority in 1918 and it was ignored by the Brits. Never again. 50%+1 is all the 'supermajority' that's needed

BennyCake

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5742 on: December 13, 2018, 06:37:49 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?

Do I have to support every word in every line to broadly agree with it?

There was a supermajority in 1918 and it was ignored by the Brits. Never again. 50%+1 is all the 'supermajority' that's needed

So if there a border poll, and 50%+1 vote for a united ireland, will the brits ignore it again if loyalists threaten violence? The Dublin cowboys might choose to ignore the result as well.

So even if the vote for a UI wins, I wouldnít be confident it will actually happen. The two shower of pricks in London and Dublin have history in ignoring results or having another go at voting.

sid waddell

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5743 on: December 13, 2018, 08:11:41 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?

Do I have to support every word in every line to broadly agree with it?

There was a supermajority in 1918 and it was ignored by the Brits. Never again. 50%+1 is all the 'supermajority' that's needed
There wasn't even a bare majority for an independent Irish state in the 1918 General Election. Sinn Fein only got 46.9% of the vote.

The Irish Parliamentary Party supported Home Rule, not an independent state outside the United Kingdom.

sid waddell

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #5744 on: December 13, 2018, 08:14:42 PM »

(1) A UI should only happen with a supermajority.

Don't you support the GFA then?

Do I have to support every word in every line to broadly agree with it?

There was a supermajority in 1918 and it was ignored by the Brits. Never again. 50%+1 is all the 'supermajority' that's needed

So if there a border poll, and 50%+1 vote for a united ireland, will the brits ignore it again if loyalists threaten violence? The Dublin cowboys might choose to ignore the result as well.

So even if the vote for a UI wins, I wouldnít be confident it will actually happen. The two shower of pricks in London and Dublin have history in ignoring results or having another go at voting.

I think you've just described why such a vote shouldn't happen until a majority for unification is clear and unassailable.