Brexit.

[Rossfan]

Westminster has done a good job of appearing immature all by themselves
As one Scottish MP put it " a farcical day in Westminster ended with a woman with a sword chasing after a man who stole a stick".
And some want the Shinners to sit among more than 600 eejits there

[RadioGAAGAA]

It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

OK - replace cattle with veal and have another go. Fairly easy for the animal to never have existed on one side of the border and twins to be on the other side.

Unless the authorities go for expensive DNA testing then without stopping the transfer between farms or from farm to slaughterhouse then they'll have difficulty proving much.

[trailer]

It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

OK - replace cattle with veal and have another go. Fairly easy for the animal to never have existed on one side of the border and twins to be on the other side.

Unless the authorities go for expensive DNA testing then without stopping the transfer between farms or from farm to slaughterhouse then they'll have difficulty proving much.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but the livestock example isn't the correct one.
Milk would be a better example. With the introduction of tariffs in the event of WTO exit I could see this product being smuggled.

[sid waddell]

peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people’s vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won’t put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328

It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

[Rossfan]

Our lunatics keep setting up new parties which usually vanish after few years.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people’s vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won’t put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328

It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

The main advantage of the FPTP system is to keep the likes of the BNP out of the commons but when you have Tories then happily going into power with the DUP and all their baggage it makes you wonder.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I understand the point you're trying to make, but the livestock example isn't the correct one.
Milk would be a better example. With the introduction of tariffs in the event of WTO exit I could see this product being smuggled.

Yep - milk is a better example - no way to DNA test it. Completely untraceable.

[sid waddell]

peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people’s vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won’t put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328

It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

The main advantage of the FPTP system is to keep the likes of the BNP out of the commons but when you have Tories then happily going into power with the DUP and all their baggage it makes you wonder.

The first past the post system has let the anti-Europe crazies set the agenda in the Tory party for the last 30 years.

With PR, they'd have been marginalised.

The UK does not have a written constitution. Parliament has always been where things are decided. Therefore any referendums are not constitutional, they are only advisory. The introduction of referendums created a parallel system for decision making which is in conflict with parliament. One of the few people to actually recognise this and warn against it was Margaret Thatcher.

Ireland has a written constitution. Our referendums are always constitutional, we've never held one that wasn't constitutional. The questions and competing outcomes are always defined. We know how to hold referendums.

Britain held an advisory, non-constitutional referendum on a question where one outcome was completely undefined and pie in the sky.

Why? Because David Cameron appeased the crazies in order to get a majority for himself in parliament. He gambled in the most irresponsible fashion with the futures of the people of Britain.

I don't rate May as Prime Minister. But hapless and incompetent as she may be, she's nowhere near Cameron on the list of worst Prime Ministers of all time.

There's a special dunce's corner in history reserved for Cameron.

[sid waddell]

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

[haranguerer]

Rubbish.

It may sound glib, but who are the loyalists going to fight? And to what end? Once we get to the stage where it has been passed, unionists will be well looked after, you can guarantee that.

And of course, 51/49 in the north would actually be 85/15 overall (those opposed in the south are extremely unlikely to be strongly and/or militantly so, so their 'against' votes aren't important in the context of your forecast bloodshed)

[johnnycool]

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

How so?

We've have "democracy" rammed down our throats by Unionists for almost 100 years, are you suggesting that they would change stance on democracy if it didn't work out in their favour?
50% +1 will do me BUT we cannot allow bigotry and sectarianism of any kind to take hold just because the shoe is on the other foot.

[Walter Cronc]

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

How so?

We've have "democracy" rammed down our throats by Unionists for almost 100 years, are you suggesting that they would change stance on democracy if it didn't work out in their favour?
50% +1 will do me BUT we cannot allow bigotry and sectarianism of any kind to take hold just because the shoe is on the other foot.

Exactly - we can't become what they were. Nor do I believe we would but there is a small % on our side also who would gladly stir sh1t for their own gains.

[sid waddell]

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

How so?

We've have "democracy" rammed down our throats by Unionists for almost 100 years, are you suggesting that they would change stance on democracy if it didn't work out in their favour?

Yes, absolutely.

50% +1 will do me BUT we cannot allow bigotry and sectarianism of any kind to take hold just because the shoe is on the other foot.

In a 50% +1 scenario it will, nothing surer.

[trailer]

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

How so?

We've have "democracy" rammed down our throats by Unionists for almost 100 years, are you suggesting that they would change stance on democracy if it didn't work out in their favour?

Yes, absolutely.

50% +1 will do me BUT we cannot allow bigotry and sectarianism of any kind to take hold just because the shoe is on the other foot.

In a 50% +1 scenario it will, nothing surer.

Unification must first involve a discussion of what a UI will look like and what Unionists position will be in that UI.
Convincing Unionist leaders to have that conversation will be the first challenge.

[sid waddell]

Rubbish.

It may sound glib, but who are the loyalists going to fight? And to what end? Once we get to the stage where it has been passed, unionists will be well looked after, you can guarantee that.

And of course, 51/49 in the north would actually be 85/15 overall (those opposed in the south are extremely unlikely to be strongly and/or militantly so, so their 'against' votes aren't important in the context of your forecast bloodshed)

Are you familiar with what happened in Yugoslavia?

The possibility for murderous "ethnic cleansing" very much exists in the North, given certain conditions. A monster lurks within everybody and nationalism brings it out more than anything. People should be under no illusions that Irish nationalism or British nationalism are any more inherently benign than German, Serbian or Croatian nationalism.

In fact ethnic cleansing has a long history in the North, it happened in the South too.

The unionists would likely demand repartition at the very least and a more murderous ethnic cleansing than ever before would likely emerge in order to drive Catholic minorities out of mixed or majority Protestant areas of Antrim and Down. That would be highly unlikely to go unanswered against Protestant minorities in majority Catholic areas of the North.