Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 277202 times)

omagh_gael

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4050 on: May 16, 2018, 03:01:47 PM »
Karen Bradley again reiterating today that there will be no cameras on the border. Are they planting the seeds for a customs partnership in the north only. Surely it would be 100% impossible for any technology to work without infrastructure. Even as light as cameras. The maxfac option would be impossible to police and I just can't see May agreeing to a UK wide customs partnership.

mouview

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4051 on: May 16, 2018, 04:13:01 PM »
Karen Bradley again reiterating today that there will be no cameras on the border. Are they planting the seeds for a customs partnership in the north only. Surely it would be 100% impossible for any technology to work without infrastructure. Even as light as cameras. The maxfac option would be impossible to police and I just can't see May agreeing to a UK wide customs partnership.

Over the DUP's dead body. They will exit the EU on the same terms as the rest of the mainland. At this stage it's either going to implode dramatically for the Tories rather like the Nazis at the end of WWII, or May will finally grow a pair, tell the loony right to f&ck off and try for the 'third way' as reported in today's RTE news.

Rois

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4052 on: May 16, 2018, 05:28:35 PM »
Karen Bradley again reiterating today that there will be no cameras on the border. Are they planting the seeds for a customs partnership in the north only. Surely it would be 100% impossible for any technology to work without infrastructure. Even as light as cameras. The maxfac option would be impossible to police and I just can't see May agreeing to a UK wide customs partnership.

Over the DUP's dead body. They will exit the EU on the same terms as the rest of the mainland. At this stage it's either going to implode dramatically for the Tories rather like the Nazis at the end of WWII, or May will finally grow a pair, tell the loony right to f&ck off and try for the 'third way' as reported in today's RTE news.
May is lining it up for the third way - she'll paint it as the only way to protect the union (ref: her comments on the border poll). 

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4053 on: May 16, 2018, 06:07:02 PM »
Karen Bradley again reiterating today that there will be no cameras on the border. Are they planting the seeds for a customs partnership in the north only. Surely it would be 100% impossible for any technology to work without infrastructure. Even as light as cameras. The maxfac option would be impossible to police and I just can't see May agreeing to a UK wide customs partnership.

Over the DUP's dead body. They will exit the EU on the same terms as the rest of the mainland. At this stage it's either going to implode dramatically for the Tories rather like the Nazis at the end of WWII, or May will finally grow a pair, tell the loony right to f&ck off and try for the 'third way' as reported in today's RTE news.
May is lining it up for the third way - she'll paint it as the only way to protect the union (ref: her comments on the border poll).

The Brits are running out of road. It would take a heart of stone not to.laugh.
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Fionntamhnach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4054 on: May 21, 2018, 12:16:53 AM »
New poll finds just 21% support for a united Ireland, despite fears about post-Brexit Irish border

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Two separate polls have found no evidence that Brexit has yet caused a radical shift in public opinion which would make a referendum on a united Ireland remotely winnable.

In findings which have added significance because of the Prime Minister’s reported suggestion to Tory MPs last week that she was not confident a border poll would definitely be won by unionism, an Ipsos MORI poll for academics found that just 21.1% of people in Northern Ireland would vote for Irish unity after the UK leaves the EU.

The poll, commissioned by academics at Queen’s University Belfast for a major piece of research examining how Brexit is shaping political opinion in Northern Ireland, found that not even half of Catholics would vote for a united Ireland, with just 42.6% of Catholics favouring that option – although a large percentage, 26%, were undecided.

Quote
If Irish unity led to Catholic voters being £3.500 a year worse off, just 22% of Catholics would vote for unity, yet if it led to them being £3,500 better off that figure would more than double to over 54%.

The research also demonstrated how in the minds of many Catholic voters the UK’s decision on the EU is directly linked to the issue of a united Ireland.

Just 28% of Catholics would vote for a united Ireland if the UK changed its mind and remained in the EU while 53% of Catholics would vote for a united Ireland if there was a ‘hard’ Brexit, the poll found.

However, although the research discovered deep disquiet about Brexit among many Catholics and strong opposition to a hardening of the porous Irish border, there was a hint of one potential area for compromise.

If technological solutions can contribute to keeping the post-Brexit border largely as it is, the survey suggests that most Catholics would be prepared to accept that.

Just 20% of Catholics said that border cameras would be “almost impossible to accept”.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-finds-just-21-support-for-a-united-ireland-despite-fears-about-post-brexit-irish-border/
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4055 on: May 21, 2018, 12:55:53 AM »
This is spin of course. The basic result of this is that people don't want a border. The UI question suffers from the usual issue of people not knowing exactly what is being proposed, and being wise enough not to express a prefeence for something they don't know what it is. The poll  also shows an interest in economic issues and a hard Brexit would surely affect the NI economy.
Basically, people do not want NI to leave the Single Market, the effect of ignoring their wishes and screwing up the economy is difficult to assess.
The problem with polls like this is that the devil is in the detail, the Brexit thing is enormously complex.

As for the border technology, the results are skewed by the Milltown Rows of this world who reckon the border cameras won't be observing them and who are happy to inflict them on someone else.
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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4056 on: May 21, 2018, 09:39:15 AM »
This is spin of course. The basic result of this is that people don't want a border. The UI question suffers from the usual issue of people not knowing exactly what is being proposed, and being wise enough not to express a prefeence for something they don't know what it is. The poll  also shows an interest in economic issues and a hard Brexit would surely affect the NI economy.
Basically, people do not want NI to leave the Single Market, the effect of ignoring their wishes and screwing up the economy is difficult to assess.
The problem with polls like this is that the devil is in the detail, the Brexit thing is enormously complex.

As for the border technology, the results are skewed by the Milltown Rows of this world who reckon the border cameras won't be observing them and who are happy to inflict them on someone else.
Tony Connelly is really, really good on Brexit and how messy it is

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0518/964505-tony-connelly-brexit/
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AQMP

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4057 on: May 21, 2018, 09:52:20 AM »
In these studies it's always worth looking at the questions that were asked.  The one on an UI was:

“When the UK leaves the EU, if there was a referendum in Northern Ireland asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or to re-unify with the rest of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?”

The headline figure is 21% would vote for a UI is making the news but if it were  - "Unionist concern as only 50.3% of people will vote to stay in the UK" it puts a different slant on it.  As the report itself says "It is possible to interpret our data from the two investigations in different ways..."

Interesting is the 26% "Don't Know" and the 11% of Catholics who said they wouldn't vote.  These people would be needed to "win" a border poll.  I suppose if you're a "Don't Know" you are persuadable.  As I always say supporters of a UI need to convince a lot of small "n" nationalists before they think about persuading unionists.

BTW I just heard Jim Wells on the radio rubbishing other parts of this report as being carried out by remoaner academics with a vested interest in the EU.

Orior

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4058 on: May 21, 2018, 12:26:29 PM »
Interesting that the English were over again inspecting the border. Did they follow protocol? One mistake is forgivable. Twice is an insult.

Also interesting is that the English bypass the DUP.
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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4059 on: May 21, 2018, 12:38:04 PM »
Interesting that the English were over again inspecting the border. Did they follow protocol? One mistake is forgivable. Twice is an insult.

Also interesting is that the English bypass the DUP.
Brexit is senior hurling. The DUP don't know how to play power at the highest level.
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heganboy

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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4061 on: May 21, 2018, 03:40:23 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland

“What may surprise people is the extent to which Catholics oppose all borders within these islands,” said John Garry, a professor at Queen’s."

I think people are beginning to see the cost of Brexit.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 03:43:40 PM by seafoid »
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seafoid

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Orior

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4064 on: May 23, 2018, 09:54:48 AM »
The most depressing thing that I seen on television in many years was yesterday's clip from the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee grilling the minister of state for immigration.

Among the big hitters were Kate Hoey, Gregory Campbell and Ian Paisley, giving the minister grief about british and irish passports and then about custom signs on the border.

https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/northern-ireland-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2017/passports-minister-evidence-17-19/
« Last Edit: May 23, 2018, 09:57:42 AM by Orior »
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