Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 127399 times)

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2220 on: December 29, 2016, 02:35:04 PM »
I think Seafoid wrote this report
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/29/uk-in-2030-older-more-unequal-and-blighted-by-brexit-report-predicts

What a load of scaremongering.
Sterling has already been hammered. Leaving may be a good idea but it needs to be delivered by a government with a majority and a programme at least cost. And the Tories are clueless instead.
Last of the choc-ices there now

balladmaker

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2221 on: December 29, 2016, 05:15:46 PM »

screenexile

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AQMP

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2223 on: January 11, 2017, 03:42:06 PM »
This could go in a half a dozen threads at the minute!

https://lucidtalk.co.uk/news/219-lt-december-2016-ni-wide-tracker-poll

Some interesting results...               





armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2224 on: January 11, 2017, 08:18:51 PM »
This could go in a half a dozen threads at the minute!

https://lucidtalk.co.uk/news/219-lt-december-2016-ni-wide-tracker-poll

Some interesting results...               

Indeed, with support for  Gay marriage at a high level among nationalists and with a majority generally and with support for a United Ireland at 44% in the 6 counties, then perhaps Tony Fearon is not quite in tune with the majority.
Brexit will definitely shake things up and it won't be quite as invisible as some people think.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2225 on: January 12, 2017, 11:52:32 AM »
The City is talking about 232K jobs that may be lost under a hard Brexit.
That would have an impact on the deficit, as will the collapse in sterling.
The UK may end up in a bailout if Brexit goes ahead
Last of the choc-ices there now

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2226 on: January 12, 2017, 12:17:03 PM »
the top 100 companies have done very well since the call for brexit..... topped all charts it seems
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2227 on: January 12, 2017, 12:32:42 PM »
the top 100 companies have done very well since the call for brexit..... topped all charts it seems

Of course they have, they are all multinationals and sterling has declined 20%, so by definition the value of their operations outside Britain has gone up and so their value in Sterling. This is not a success for UK business, but a measure of the decline of the UK currency.

The problem is that people are remarking on this as if it meant something.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2228 on: January 12, 2017, 12:47:48 PM »
the top 100 companies have done very well since the call for brexit..... topped all charts it seems
That is because they earn lots outside the UK. When sterling falls the value of those earnings rise.
It is NOT a sign of good health.

For UK earnings you need to look at the top 350
Last of the choc-ices there now

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2229 on: January 12, 2017, 12:48:58 PM »
the top 100 companies have done very well since the call for brexit..... topped all charts it seems

Of course they have, they are all multinationals and sterling has declined 20%, so by definition the value of their operations outside Britain has gone up and so their value in Sterling. This is not a success for UK business, but a measure of the decline of the UK currency.

The problem is that people are remarking on this as if it meant something.
People such as the Torygraph...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/12/five-signs-week-uk-economy-thriving-post-brexit/
Last of the choc-ices there now

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2230 on: January 12, 2017, 12:51:46 PM »
Various bits. There will be no positives

Martin Wolf, FT @SpeakingUp I strongly agree. The Leavers persuaded the British people to support them on a fraudulent basis. They also had (and have) no plan for leaving. That is worse than merely fraudulent. It is grotesquely irresponsible. The fact that this was the case was pointed out by many commentators (including me). The government is not to blame for not having a plan for Brexit, since there simply is no sensible plan for Brexit. Whatever the government does, it is going to be a terrible mess. The government is instead to blame for holding the idiotic referendum in the first place. Competent governments do not present the option of a national disaster before the electorate


#He has long seen Britain leaving the EU single market and customs union as the most likely Brexit scenario, and believed the biggest remaining question was whether this outcome would be achieved through an orderly and managed transition or via a sharp exit with no withdrawal agreement with the EU.

#So the government is not able to make the notification, has no real idea what it is ultimately seeking and does not have the full attention of those with whom it needs to negotiate in a limited period. On these objective bases, one would say that a rational view is that an Article 50 notification remains less likely than likely in two months’ time.

#That leverage is strengthened by another cold calculation in Paris, Brussels and Berlin: the longer Britain waits for a transition deal to be discussed and agreed, the more likely businesses will decide to move or shift investment away from the UK. For the EU-27, late agreement on transition would maximise relocation while still avoiding a “cliff edge” — sudden and disruptive change for businesses stemming from a sudden exit.

#But Mr Davis also sees the transition as leverage. A hard exit would cut off corporate Europe from its main financial centre, the City of London. Highly integrated cross-border supply chains for carmaking or aeronautics would be badly disrupted. That would carry costs for all sides — if Britain was willing to walk away from the table.

#9.1 Analysts said political discord over the UK’s Brexit strategy would weigh on sterling even though economic data were proving resilient.
“Until the government finally presents a concrete and convincing strategy, market participants will increasingly fear a disaster,” said Esther Reichelt at Commerzbank.

#Brexit poses a risk to the global financial system and could spark more than 230,000 job losses in the financial sector, senior City figures have warned MPs as they called for clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
Last of the choc-ices there now

bennydorano

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2231 on: January 12, 2017, 12:56:47 PM »
Your memos aren't getting through Seafoid

'Brexit poses bigger threat to EU than UK'

Carney: Brexit risks now lower - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2232 on: January 12, 2017, 01:03:20 PM »
Your memos aren't getting through Seafoid

'Brexit poses bigger threat to EU than UK'

Carney: Brexit risks now lower - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625
He is trying to talk up sterling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SE7YAhnoxI
Last of the choc-ices there now

Franko

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2233 on: January 12, 2017, 01:36:18 PM »
Your memos aren't getting through Seafoid

'Brexit poses bigger threat to EU than UK'

Carney: Brexit risks now lower - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

Quoting experts is frowned upon here benny.  All posts should should reference your own experiences, such as the price of a bottle of Merlot in your local Winemark.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2234 on: January 12, 2017, 01:50:03 PM »
Your memos aren't getting through Seafoid

'Brexit poses bigger threat to EU than UK'

Carney: Brexit risks now lower - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

Quoting experts is frowned upon here benny.  All posts should should reference your own experiences, such as the price of a bottle of Merlot in your local Winemark.
Yeah and no discussion of the future
Last of the choc-ices there now