Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 551850 times)

gallsman

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #855 on: June 27, 2016, 09:02:15 AM »
Anyone buying sterling?
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smelmoth

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #856 on: June 27, 2016, 09:10:55 AM »
The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

The ROI is one of the few places the UK has a trade surplus with, owing to the volume of consumer goods from there. Sterling going down is a swings and roundabouts issue too.

Explain the significance of the trade surplus in the context of this debate?
The UK's trade surplus is Irelands trade defecit.
If we are trading the same volume but the cost of the goods coming in goes down (£ loses value relative to €) then Irelands trade defecit narrows.

So if you sell a good or service into the UK and you lose orders because there is less demand in UK, the currency movement has made your goods more expensive and the UK importer now has to pay an import tariff what significance is to you that the imports from UK will be cheaper?

Is it not even worse as an import from UK is now cheaper (especially in the 2+ years Article 50 period) and so RoI businesses well find it harder to compete in their domestic market against UK competitors?

No wides

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #857 on: June 27, 2016, 09:18:56 AM »
One million signatures for a second vote.

BTW the DUP are odious.

2 million now completely pointless.

Mickey Mouse, I Squeaky Way etc. must have been signing up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

Canalman

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #858 on: June 27, 2016, 09:24:50 AM »
The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

The ROI is one of the few places the UK has a trade surplus with, owing to the volume of consumer goods from there. Sterling going down is a swings and roundabouts issue too.

Explain the significance of the trade surplus in the context of this debate?


Would expect every member state government to snarl at their dept of Finances this morning to find out what their trade balance with the UK is. Then they will decide how to deal with the UK in the negotiations on the basis of their national self interest.

Applesisapples

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #859 on: June 27, 2016, 09:25:46 AM »
Switzerland do alright. As does Norway, Israel, US, China etc.

You are deluded if you think the UK won't be able to trade with EU members. They're the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world. They'll work it out!

Immigration is a factor too. Infrastructures can't cope with massive influxes of people; hospitals, doctors, schools etc. Another good reason to get out. Should've happened 10 years ago.
Yes Britain can have those types of deals, which will mean accepting all the laws and paying into the EU, with no say or influence.

Applesisapples

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #860 on: June 27, 2016, 09:41:40 AM »
Are you allowed to express concerns about unchecked immigration without being labelled a racist ?
I was taken by the people expressing such concerns being or Irish, Asian and African origin. Without immigration they would still be in their home countries.

smelmoth

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #861 on: June 27, 2016, 09:55:25 AM »
Switzerland do alright. As does Norway, Israel, US, China etc.

You are deluded if you think the UK won't be able to trade with EU members. They're the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world. They'll work it out!

Immigration is a factor too. Infrastructures can't cope with massive influxes of people; hospitals, doctors, schools etc. Another good reason to get out. Should've happened 10 years ago.
Yes Britain can have those types of deals, which will mean accepting all the laws and paying into the EU, with no say or influence.

Nail on head.

At no stage did the Remain campaign say there would be no trade with EU. The issue is the terms of trade. Any attempt to have a debate on this before the poll was shouted down as scare mongering

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #862 on: June 27, 2016, 09:59:49 AM »
The UK needs access to the Single Market which comes with acceptance of free movement of people.
If there was economic growth in europe free movement would not be an issue. But neoliberalism is fucked
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 10:04:33 AM by seafoid »
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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #863 on: June 27, 2016, 10:08:14 AM »
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b84027e-3b93-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html

The City of London should brace itself for an new era where its rule book reflects Franco-German interests unchecked by “the British voice”, according to Britain’s outgoing EU commissioner in charge of financial services.
In an FT interview following his resignation on Saturday, Jonathan Hill laid out the imminent shift in power on European rulemaking, which could leave British financial institutions bending to eurozone-dominated priorities, even if London is outside the single market.
More
ON THIS STORY
•   Brexit live The fallout
•   Brexit The questions for markets this week
•   Analysis Will foreign banks leave the UK?
•   Chris Grayling City needs a neat Brexit
•   Gavyn Davies Is Brexit a global uncertainty shock?
ON THIS TOPIC
•   Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain
•   Singapore to overtake UK for offshore finance
•   Banks continue to shrink London space
•   City police chief says officers will stay unarmed
IN EUROPE
•   EU defence strategy to push for closer integration
•   US moves to mediate in EU political crisis
•   Spain’s elections five key takeaways
•   Begin divorce process to trigger talks
While it is hard to predict the form or speed of any turn against the City, Lord Hill said longstanding efforts to bring financial operations back to the euro area may be resurrected, including the European Central Bank’s plan — annulled by the EU’s top court — to locate clearing services in the single currency zone. “You know the history and sometimes history does repeat itself,” he said.
His departure is the most tangible sign of British political influence in Brussels evaporating after its referendum vote to leave the EU, with power draining away from Brits in the EU institutions and the European Parliament. No new British commissioner was nominated, in part because a confirmation hearing in the European Parliament was seen as a lost cause.
Underlining the abrupt shift influence, Lord Hill’s powerful portfolio — initially offered to Britain as an olive-branch — has been taken over by Valdis Dombrovskis, the commission vice-president responsible for the euro.

Will foreign banks leave the UK after Brexit?

 
The loss of ‘passporting’ rights could see lenders move their headquarters from London
The move is a sign the EU is shifting its policy goals towards aligning Europe’s 28-country strong single market for finance with the interests of the smaller eurozone and its banking union, rather than allowing them to permanently coexist. It is an outcome Britain had spent 25 years fighting to avoid.
Mr Hill’s point is that British banks and financial institutions will not escape this EU-27 rulemaking, whatever arrangements are found post-Brexit. Should Britain’s single market access continue — with prized “passporting” rights to serve EU clients in London — the rules are likely to have to be adopted wholesale.
In any event, negotiating such access may be impossible. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.
Other senior EU officials believe the UK’s passporting rights are effectively “dead” post-Brexit because other countries led by France will ensure any future form of passport will offer far less privileged access to a eurozone market with more protectionist rules. Banks have already begun to take action to shift operations out of the UK, approaching euro area regulators to secure licences.
If Britain seeks a deal outside the single market — based on EU and UK rules being deemed as “equivalent” and offering limited mutual access in return — many of those eurozone dominated rules will still need to be followed.
“Rulemaking will continue at a global level and at a European level . . . who is in the room and who has the critical heft is extremely important in how rules end up,” he said. “The nature of the rules you have to be equivalent to, or passporting into, are going to shift,” he added.
With Britain outside the bloc, a number of EU and ECB reform ideas it had thwarted could regain momentum, including a single capital markets authority, a more interventionist policy on markets in general and new bank capital rules better tailored to the interests of French, German and Italian lenders. Mr Hill’s plans for a capital markets union may roll-on, but over time take a more ambitious, eurozone-centred shape.
“The voices that would be present at the table without Britain there — the voice of the French financial services industry, German industry, Dutch, Irish — will clearly be heard,” said Lord Hill.
“The nature and the shape of the financial services industry in France or in Germany — from the banking and any other point of view — is pretty different from what it is in the UK. So the direction of how policy will evolve will reflect those different voices, without the British voice in there to balance.”
The direction of how policy will evolve will reflect those different voices, without the British voice in there to balance
- Lord Hill
Clearly rocked by a tumultuous 48 hours since the referendum, Lord Hill spoke of his tremendous sadness at the result, and his own personal journey from being an anti-euro comrade-in-arms with many Brexit campaigners to a EU commissioner convinced Britain’s national interests were best protected within the bloc.
“The only sensible thing is to get everyone to put their effort into how you make things work as well as possible for the UK and the rest of Europe,” he said. “I don’t think you do that by everyone diving into the trenches and digging into conflictual positions.”
Two Conservative party convulsions on Europe have been bookends to Lord Hill’s political career, first as a Downing Street adviser during the Maastricht revolt, and possibly Britain’s last EU commissioner with any clout. Asked whether he would be supporting Boris Johnson, Brexiter and former London mayor, to become Tory leader, Mr Hill said: “For the moment, one of the few benefits of being in Brussels in the Berlaymont is that I will not have to get involved in that campaign.”
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #864 on: June 27, 2016, 10:15:02 AM »
The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

The ROI is one of the few places the UK has a trade surplus with, owing to the volume of consumer goods from there. Sterling going down is a swings and roundabouts issue too.

Explain the significance of the trade surplus in the context of this debate?
The UK's trade surplus is Irelands trade defecit.
If we are trading the same volume but the cost of the goods coming in goes down (£ loses value relative to €) then Irelands trade defecit narrows.

So if you sell a good or service into the UK and you lose orders because there is less demand in UK, the currency movement has made your goods more expensive and the UK importer now has to pay an import tariff what significance is to you that the imports from UK will be cheaper?

Is it not even worse as an import from UK is now cheaper (especially in the 2+ years Article 50 period) and so RoI businesses well find it harder to compete in their domestic market against UK competitors?

All this is true. But it is also true that UK imports form a significant input to goods exports from Ireland to elsewhere.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

dferg

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #865 on: June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM »
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #866 on: June 27, 2016, 10:43:13 AM »
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

doodaa

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #867 on: June 27, 2016, 10:45:05 AM »
How will Spain voting to leave the Euro sort out their unemployment?

Devaluation.

Quote
Have the Brits any effn idea where they go from here?

Absolutely none.

The problem with devaluation nowadays is that everyone is doing it.  :D

Germany tried that after world war 1. And it took 2 wheelbarrrows of German marks to buy a loaf of bread.

Thank God for chip and pin  :P

haveaharp

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #868 on: June 27, 2016, 10:50:06 AM »
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

With their one MP?

Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #869 on: June 27, 2016, 10:53:05 AM »
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

With their one MP?

Well they are predicted to obliterate Labour in the north of England.