Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 555576 times)

OgraAnDun

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #210 on: June 14, 2016, 11:00:30 PM »
I can understand some of the ideological arguments for leaving the EU, including a reclaiming of national sovereignty, freedom from TTIP which looks like it might be forced through the EU, and a shift away from neo-liberal politics which the EU is championing. However, Switzerland and Norway have to adhere to pretty much all the legislation with virtually no input into the legislative process. Essentially, Brits will be leaving the table but still having to follow the adult's rules.

Leaving the EU will be an economic disaster, as the UK goes towards the back of the queue for trade deals, and the above problems (as regards EU legislation) could become even worse as Berlin dominates procedures even more so than it does at the minute. Plenty of large businesses have said they will relocate and I think that small ones will also feel the pinch.

I think that many nationalists (Scottish and Irish) that are lukewarm to the idea of a Brexit believe the old adage that 'England's difficulty is Ireland's (Scotland's) opportunity'. In Ireland, I think that many American multinationals will move to Dublin - we speak the same language as those Stateside, the culture is similar and the start of a working day in California is the end of it in Ireland, compared to an hour after it's finished in Paris or Dusseldorf. In Scotland, a UK out of the EU is bound to be more than enough to swing a future vote on Scottish independence to an out vote.

In the north, it all depends on whether you believe the British government and the English people have the stomach to impose a hard border between the 6 and 26 counties. I personally don't believe they do. I think the Tories - especially those in the Brexit camp - are more than willing to finally get rid of the north and its petty squabbles once and for all, especially with Scotland gone and it really is just England left in the mix. As someone said earlier in this thread (I think), border posts in South Armagh are followed quickly by the phrase 'sitting ducks'. In this case, the UK's external borders move to Holyhead and British airports, finally confirming the idea that the north is NOT part of Britain. Moderate unionists will also swing round to the idea of a united Ireland, especially when they look at a liberal, modern and (hopefully) prosperous south and compare it with the Little Englanders version of the UK.

In the event of a hard border being imposed (unlikely), I believe it will push a lot of Catholics who like the status quo back to nationalism, as they will bitterly resent being stopped and searched every time they want to cross the border, which for a lot of people, is multiple times a day if not a week. For example, from Newry to Clones, a car crosses the border 3 times each way if they go via Castleblayney.


However, I think it's all irrelevant. On polling day, anyone who is currently a 'don't know' - of whom there are a sizeable enough portion, will give in to the devil they do rather than the devil they don't, and vote to stay in the EU.


EDIT: I should probably also say that Scotland leaving the UK also leaves the unionists here with a bit of an identity crisis. They were so scared of it the last time, they even wanted voters in the north to get a vote. They call their accent 'Ulster Scots' rather than 'Ulster English'. Anything that weakens their arguments for unionism should be welcomed by nationalism.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 11:47:57 PM by OgraAnDun »

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #211 on: June 14, 2016, 11:52:20 PM »
Unfortunately, it isn't clear that Scotland will move even if there is a Brexit. One problem with this is that it might throw the nature of arrangements between Scotland and England into confusion also and a giant customs station at Gretna does not make any more sense than one at Killeen, although it is probably less likely that someone will fire mortars at it.
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muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #212 on: June 14, 2016, 11:56:16 PM »
I can understand some of the ideological arguments for leaving the EU, including a reclaiming of national sovereignty, freedom from TTIP which looks like it might be forced through the EU, and a shift away from neo-liberal politics which the EU is championing. However, Switzerland and Norway have to adhere to pretty much all the legislation with virtually no input into the legislative process. Essentially, Brits will be leaving the table but still having to follow the adult's rules.

Leaving the EU will be an economic disaster, as the UK goes towards the back of the queue for trade deals, and the above problems (as regards EU legislation) could become even worse as Berlin dominates procedures even more so than it does at the minute. Plenty of large businesses have said they will relocate and I think that small ones will also feel the pinch.

I think that many nationalists (Scottish and Irish) that are lukewarm to the idea of a Brexit believe the old adage that 'England's difficulty is Ireland's (Scotland's) opportunity'. In Ireland, I think that many American multinationals will move to Dublin - we speak the same language as those Stateside, the culture is similar and the start of a working day in California is the end of it in Ireland, compared to an hour after it's finished in Paris or Dusseldorf. In Scotland, a UK out of the EU is bound to be more than enough to swing a future vote on Scottish independence to an out vote.

In the north, it all depends on whether you believe the British government and the English people have the stomach to impose a hard border between the 6 and 26 counties. I personally don't believe they do. I think the Tories - especially those in the Brexit camp - are more than willing to finally get rid of the north and its petty squabbles once and for all, especially with Scotland gone and it really is just England left in the mix. As someone said earlier in this thread (I think), border posts in South Armagh are followed quickly by the phrase 'sitting ducks'. In this case, the UK's external borders move to Holyhead and British airports, finally confirming the idea that the north is NOT part of Britain. Moderate unionists will also swing round to the idea of a united Ireland, especially when they look at a liberal, modern and (hopefully) prosperous south and compare it with the Little Englanders version of the UK.

In the event of a hard border being imposed (unlikely), I believe it will push a lot of Catholics who like the status quo back to nationalism, as they will bitterly resent being stopped and searched every time they want to cross the border, which for a lot of people, is multiple times a day if not a week. For example, from Newry to Clones, a car crosses the border 3 times each way if they go via Castleblayney.


However, I think it's all irrelevant. On polling day, anyone who is currently a 'don't know' - of whom there are a sizeable enough portion, will give in to the devil they do rather than the devil they don't, and vote to stay in the EU.


EDIT: I should probably also say that Scotland leaving the UK also leaves the unionists here with a bit of an identity crisis. They were so scared of it the last time, they even wanted voters in the north to get a vote. They call their accent 'Ulster Scots' rather than 'Ulster English'. Anything that weakens their arguments for unionism should be welcomed by nationalism.

What, like Foot & Mouth?

Only joking.

I like this:

Quote
Essentially, Brits will be leaving the table but still having to follow the adult's rules.


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OgraAnDun

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #213 on: June 15, 2016, 12:02:24 AM »
They have a habit of sticking their foot in their mouth anyway.


Unfortunately, it isn't clear that Scotland will move even if there is a Brexit. One problem with this is that it might throw the nature of arrangements between Scotland and England into confusion also and a giant customs station at Gretna does not make any more sense than one at Killeen, although it is probably less likely that someone will fire mortars at it.

I think that Scots will definitely vote to leave in the event of a Brexit. If Britain wants some sort of free trade deal with the EU, they may have to succumb to free movement of citizens anyway which renders border posts redundant. Whether or not they will agree to that in four or five years depends on who is in power - left to see how big a mistake they've made, Labour could well be voted back in. Either way it just goes to show the sheer stupidity in voting for a Brexit. I dislike the EU but it's economic suicide to leave.

If the above outline (re; no border posts in Ireland, MNCs moving to Dublin etc) does come to pass, the best result for anyone that wants to see the breakup of the U.K. would be a Brexit with a heavy 'In' vote in the 6C and in Scotland.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 12:08:11 AM by OgraAnDun »

longballin

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #214 on: June 15, 2016, 10:46:42 AM »
I think the stay-in camp will pull a huge scare tactic out of the hat in the last day or two before the vote and people will be afraid to go through with it... similar to Scottish referendum. Anything The Sun, Farage and Borris support can't be good
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 11:13:23 AM by longballin »

No wides

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #215 on: June 15, 2016, 10:57:19 AM »
They have a habit of sticking their foot in their mouth anyway.


Unfortunately, it isn't clear that Scotland will move even if there is a Brexit. One problem with this is that it might throw the nature of arrangements between Scotland and England into confusion also and a giant customs station at Gretna does not make any more sense than one at Killeen, although it is probably less likely that someone will fire mortars at it.

I think that Scots will definitely vote to leave in the event of a Brexit. If Britain wants some sort of free trade deal with the EU, they may have to succumb to free movement of citizens anyway which renders border posts redundant. Whether or not they will agree to that in four or five years depends on who is in power - left to see how big a mistake they've made, Labour could well be voted back in. Either way it just goes to show the sheer stupidity in voting for a Brexit. I dislike the EU but it's economic suicide to leave.

If the above outline (re; no border posts in Ireland, MNCs moving to Dublin etc) does come to pass, the best result for anyone that wants to see the breakup of the U.K. would be a Brexit with a heavy 'In' vote in the 6C and in Scotland.

Surely parliament has to grant them another referendum?

take_yer_points

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #216 on: June 15, 2016, 11:11:13 AM »

Can someone explain to me why a northern nationalist would vote to remain?

I wouldn't profess to having researched this in any great detail but there are a few reasons I'd be voting to stay:

1) Look at the type of character that wants to leave. Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, Jim Allister, DUP cronies. This on its own is enough me to convince to stay.
2) Economically Westminster will have even less regard for the 6 counties than they already have if they have increased powers.
3) Potential for increased border controls

Constitutionally I'm not sure what the impact would be but I don't think anyone can predict this with any great certainty.

This line speaks volumes.

Voting on the basis of the character of a cause's supporters as opposed to the actual cause itself?

What these people represent is by and large totally at odds with my own views and hence that's why I dislike them in the first place.

Saw this on facebook:


A good friend of mine came up with a great idea. If you don't have the time/inclination to find out all the facts about the EU referendum (I don't blame you) and are possibly unsure which way to vote, perhaps knowing how other notable people are thinking could help out.

Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:

• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
• President of the United States of America
• Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
• President of China
• Prime Minister of India
• Prime Minister of Canada
• Prime Minister of Australia
• Prime Minister of Japan
• Prime Minister of New Zealand
• The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
• Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
• The Prime Minister of the UK
• The leader of the Labour Party
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• The Leader of the Green Party
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leader of Sinn Fein
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
• The Secretary General of the TUC
• Unison
• National Union of Students
• National Union of Farmers
• Stephen Hawking
• Chief Executive of the NHS
• 300 of the most prominent international historians
• Director of Europol
• David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
• Former Directors of GCHQ
• Secretary General of Nato
• Church of England
• Church in Scotland
• Church in Wales
• Friends of the Earth
• Greenpeace
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
• WWF
• World Bank
• OECD

Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• That idiot that was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system
• Leader of UKIP
• BNP
• Britain First
• Donald Trump
• Keith Chegwin
• David Icke

So, as I said, if you can’t be bothered to look into the real facts and implications of all this in/out stuff, just pick the list that you most trust and vote that way. It really couldn’t be more simple.

And if you are unsure about leaving, don't.

Please repost this list, if you think it might help.

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #217 on: June 15, 2016, 11:28:51 AM »
Are the British Government bound by the outcome if it's a leave vote?
A referendum in the 26 Cos is to amend a written Constitution which can only be done by popular vote.
What status has the Brit's referendum?
1 BIG CUP and 1 Cupeen so far....

Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #218 on: June 15, 2016, 11:30:49 AM »

Can someone explain to me why a northern nationalist would vote to remain?

I wouldn't profess to having researched this in any great detail but there are a few reasons I'd be voting to stay:

1) Look at the type of character that wants to leave. Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, Jim Allister, DUP cronies. This on its own is enough me to convince to stay.
2) Economically Westminster will have even less regard for the 6 counties than they already have if they have increased powers.
3) Potential for increased border controls

Constitutionally I'm not sure what the impact would be but I don't think anyone can predict this with any great certainty.

This line speaks volumes.

Voting on the basis of the character of a cause's supporters as opposed to the actual cause itself?

What these people represent is by and large totally at odds with my own views and hence that's why I dislike them in the first place.

Saw this on facebook:


A good friend of mine came up with a great idea. If you don't have the time/inclination to find out all the facts about the EU referendum (I don't blame you) and are possibly unsure which way to vote, perhaps knowing how other notable people are thinking could help out.

Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:

• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
• President of the United States of America
• Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
• President of China
• Prime Minister of India
• Prime Minister of Canada
• Prime Minister of Australia
• Prime Minister of Japan
• Prime Minister of New Zealand
• The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
• Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
• The Prime Minister of the UK
• The leader of the Labour Party
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• The Leader of the Green Party
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leader of Sinn Fein
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
• The Secretary General of the TUC
• Unison
• National Union of Students
• National Union of Farmers
• Stephen Hawking
• Chief Executive of the NHS
• 300 of the most prominent international historians
• Director of Europol
• David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
• Former Directors of GCHQ
• Secretary General of Nato
• Church of England
• Church in Scotland
• Church in Wales
• Friends of the Earth
• Greenpeace
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
• WWF
• World Bank
• OECD

Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• That idiot that was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system
• Leader of UKIP
• BNP
• Britain First
• Donald Trump
• Keith Chegwin
• David Icke

So, as I said, if you can’t be bothered to look into the real facts and implications of all this in/out stuff, just pick the list that you most trust and vote that way. It really couldn’t be more simple.

And if you are unsure about leaving, don't.

Please repost this list, if you think it might help.

That's a bit unfair. They forgot Ian Botham.

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #219 on: June 15, 2016, 11:37:20 AM »
The Scots would probably ask for a referendum if things go pear shaped. They might wait a few weeks for the Conservative government to implode.

Are the British Government bound by the outcome if it's a leave vote?
A referendum in the 26 Cos is to amend a written Constitution which can only be done by popular vote.
What status has the Brit's referendum?

The Parliament could just ignore it in legal terms, although this is not possible in political terms.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #220 on: June 15, 2016, 11:39:15 AM »
Are the British Government bound by the outcome if it's a leave vote?
A referendum in the 26 Cos is to amend a written Constitution which can only be done by popular vote.
What status has the Brit's referendum?

From House Of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution - Report on Referendums in the United Kingdom:

The outcome of any referendum does not bind
Parliament (unless that Parliament has previously agreed that it will) but would be expected to influence
significantly subsequent parliamentary consideration of an issue.


In other words:
Are they bound constitutionally? No.
Are they bound politically? Almost certainly.

Fiodoir Ard Mhacha

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #221 on: June 15, 2016, 12:05:37 PM »
Cameron cancels Friday morning appearance with Taoiseach in Manchester to persuade Irish in Britain to vote Remain.  Apparently, he's a liability to the voting public....
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Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #222 on: June 15, 2016, 12:07:35 PM »
Kindred spirits, then.

Jeepers Creepers

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #223 on: June 15, 2016, 12:23:29 PM »
Cameron cancels Friday morning appearance with Taoiseach in Manchester to persuade Irish in Britain to vote Remain.  Apparently, he's a liability to the voting public....

I believe Mr Cameron has been withdrawn from all remaining 'Remain' campaigning. 

muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #224 on: June 15, 2016, 12:32:20 PM »
Cameron cancels Friday morning appearance with Taoiseach in Manchester to persuade Irish in Britain to vote Remain.  Apparently, he's a liability to the voting public....

I believe Mr Cameron has been withdrawn from all remaining 'Remain' campaigning.

You'll know it is serious when he joins the 'Leave' campaign.
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