Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 555473 times)

omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #165 on: June 14, 2016, 07:07:29 AM »
Good news, we can all vote them out now safe in the knowledge that it will help the Irish economy.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0614/795400-brexit-esri-corporation-tax/

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #166 on: June 14, 2016, 07:37:51 AM »
If Carson and Craig could return now what would they make of NI? The protestant industries all collapsed. Dublin is far bigger and far wealthier than Belfast. The bigotry blew up in 1969 and is still hurting economically. England lost the Empire. The British economy is a mess.
Politics are subject to macro.
 
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naka

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #167 on: June 14, 2016, 08:31:11 AM »
It's amazing how the dup are pushing for it knowing it could break the union.( with the scots pulling out) although the economic argument for independence isn't as strong now that oil has crashed.
The shinners I believe fear  be exit and border controls minimal or otherwise because it really copper fastens the idea of two separate countries .
The next few days will be good craic.

No wides

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #168 on: June 14, 2016, 08:56:29 AM »
If Carson and Craig could return now what would they make of NI? The protestant industries all collapsed. Dublin is far bigger and far wealthier than Belfast. The bigotry blew up in 1969 and is still hurting economically. England lost the Empire. The British economy is a mess.
Politics are subject to macro.

Is it really?

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #169 on: June 14, 2016, 09:08:12 AM »
If Carson and Craig could return now what would they make of NI? The protestant industries all collapsed. Dublin is far bigger and far wealthier than Belfast. The bigotry blew up in 1969 and is still hurting economically. England lost the Empire. The British economy is a mess.
Politics are subject to macro.

Is it really?
7% trade deficit is exports more valuable than imports
5% budget deficit ie spending higher than taxes
Massive housing bubble
North of England poorer than any region in Ireland
Risible economic growth
No growth driver
Falling productivity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN9EC3Gy6Nk

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yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #170 on: June 14, 2016, 09:34:53 AM »
Brexit has gained huge momentum in the last week and it is looking like it is possible now. Another odious character Rupert Murdoch has now come out in favour of it and he has a track record of backing the winner in elections dating back to the 1970's. I never thought it was possible up until now largely due to the fact that we are somewhat sheltered over here from general public opinion in the main population centres, but it's certainly time to start taking the Brexit side serious as it now looks like a distinct possibility.

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #171 on: June 14, 2016, 09:55:33 AM »
It's amazing how the dup are pushing for it knowing it could break the union.( with the scots pulling out) although the economic argument for independence isn't as strong now that oil has crashed.

The DUP are poorly led, Robinson would not have done come out in favour of Brexit, or indeed Paisley. Foster represents Fermanagh, a place largely dependent on agriculture and cross border trade, yet she cannot manage to represent her own constituency. Just as Cameron was driven to this by UKIP, the DUP just took the policy of the TUV. Hopefully some people who might have voted DUP, farmers and the like, will either vote against or will be too busy on the day to get to vote.
The UU have managed a nuanced view, so we are back to the Good Friday Agreement  situation of the DUP trying to keep the place in turmoil. Unfortunately some half baked "nationalists" will vote against while others won't get off their arse. Let's hope the middle of the road folk who don't always vote make an effort.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

DuffleKing

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #172 on: June 14, 2016, 09:57:16 AM »

Can someone explain to me why a northern nationalist would vote to remain?

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #173 on: June 14, 2016, 10:05:03 AM »

Can someone explain to me why a northern nationalist would vote to remain?

Because the EU has provided an invaluable non controversial mechanism for coordinating the island of Ireland and improving the economy in the 6 counties.

You could take the view that  restoring customs etc would emphasise the need for a united Ireland, but since the work to design a UI has not been done and we lack politicians capable of doing this then it would simply restart violence.

As I said, a strong remain vote contrasted with a leave in England sends a strong message that we are not England.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #174 on: June 14, 2016, 10:20:16 AM »

Can someone explain to me why a northern nationalist would vote to remain?

I wouldn't profess to having researched this in any great detail but there are a few reasons I'd be voting to stay:

1) Look at the type of character that wants to leave. Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, Jim Allister, DUP cronies. This on its own is enough me to convince to stay.
2) Economically Westminster will have even less regard for the 6 counties than they already have if they have increased powers.
3) Potential for increased border controls

Constitutionally I'm not sure what the impact would be but I don't think anyone can predict this with any great certainty.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #175 on: June 14, 2016, 11:10:30 AM »
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/399e4056-2e3a-11e6-a18d-a96ab29e3c95.html



June 9, 2016 7:36 pm

Northern Ireland cannot afford a British EU exit


Reimposition of a north-south border threatens the peace process


Britain’s EU referendum campaign is dominated by arguments over the economy and migration. But the outcome will also have significant consequences for the unity of the United Kingdom. Here, much of the political debate is focused on the implications for Scottish independence and the well-founded fear that a vote to leave could trigger a second referendum.

Too little attention is paid to the threat Brexit poses to stability in Northern Ireland. Nearly two decades after the signing of the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland peace process stands as a remarkable, if fragile, political achievement.





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In the decades before the 1998 pact, some 3,600 people were murdered in sectarian violence. Today, the province enjoys a calm and prosperity that would have once been unimaginable, an accomplishment for which two former British prime ministers, John Major and Tony Blair, deserve much credit. As both declared on a visit to the province on Thursday, Brexit would put the settlement at risk.

The UK’s departure from the EU would bring back a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, an EU member state. Since the Good Friday agreement, the old dividing line imposed at Irish partition in 1922 has virtually disappeared. The free movement of people and goods between north and south is a powerful symbol of how the communities of Ireland are now at ease with each other.

If Britain votes to leave, the 310-mile border will become the UK’s sole land frontier with the EU. Immigration controls would have to be reimposed to prevent EU nationals from entering the UK through a “back door” route.

The EU would have to apply customs controls on the UK, which would almost certainly have to leave the single market.

The Leave campaign downplays the consequences, insisting that a common travel area would remain safely in place. Given that one of the campaign’s main slogans is “take back control of our borders”, this reassurance cannot be taken seriously.

The return of a hard frontier between north and south could be a significant setback for the peace process. The fraught debate over Irish unity would rear its head again, giving voice to the hardliners among unionists and republicans.




How accurate are the Brexit polls?
 
File photo dated 02/06/16 of a polling card and voting guide for the 2016 EU referendum, as new figures show that the referendum could end as a dead heat between Remain and Leave if the difference in turnout between young and old voters mirrors the 2015 general election. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Tuesday June 7, 2016. The findings come as time is running out for people to register to vote in the referendum, with the deadline for applications 11.59pm tonight. See PA story POLITICS EU Turnout. Photo credit should read: Yui Mok/PA Wire

After failing to predict the 2015 election, the polling industry still has questions to resolve

The imposition of customs controls would inflict economic harm. The unhampered flow of goods between north and south, worth about €3bn a year, has benefited both sides. Undermining the trade would be especially damaging for Northern Ireland since the Republic is its biggest trading partner. It would also set back the economic convergence between north and south that has underpinned the peace.

The EU has been the vessel through which many of Europe’s nations have resolved their longstanding enmities. This applies particularly to Britain and Ireland. When Belfast was consumed by the “Troubles” in the 1970s, politicians in London and Dublin barely knew each other. Ireland was not in Nato or the Commonwealth.

The common forum for both states became Brussels, where the two countries have joined hands over many policy issues. It is a setting which has fostered a climate of trust and respect.

In Britain’s raucous referendum debate, the future of the province will make few headlines. But that should not detract from what is at stake. Northern Ireland is one of the few examples of a peaceful resolution to what seemed an intractable sectarian conflict. Reimposing a border on the island of Ireland is an immense price to pay for Britain to leave the EU.

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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #176 on: June 14, 2016, 11:16:53 AM »
Why does the DUP support Brexit? Does anyone in the DUP understand how the real world works ?
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blewuporstuffed

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #177 on: June 14, 2016, 11:25:29 AM »
Why does the DUP support Brexit? Does anyone in the DUP understand how the real world works ?

Because they think Brexit will lead to greater separation between NI and RoI and they think that will play well with their base suport

Their argument that  Brexit will not have a negative impact on cross border trade or movement is farcical.
I can only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow doesn't look good either

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #178 on: June 14, 2016, 11:55:16 AM »
Why does the DUP support Brexit? Does anyone in the DUP understand how the real world works ?

Because they think Brexit will lead to greater separation between NI and RoI and they think that will play well with their base suport
who will.lose money
And the UK might break up

Cutting off NI's nose to spite its face
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vallankumous

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #179 on: June 14, 2016, 11:57:29 AM »
Why does the DUP support Brexit? Does anyone in the DUP understand how the real world works ?

Because they think Brexit will lead to greater separation between NI and RoI and they think that will play well with their base suport
who will.lose money
And the UK might break up

Cutting off NI's nose to spite its face

Or even more likely nothing will happen at all.