Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 552967 times)

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #60 on: February 17, 2016, 10:53:06 AM »
It is just too uncertain for the UK to leave

The people of the UK will leave

A new prophet ::)
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #61 on: February 17, 2016, 10:55:28 AM »
I think the DUP have lost the plot on this one, especially with a leader from a border agricultural constituency. Whatever plans the London government have for any money by not contributing to the EU, sending it to NI would not be at the front of the list and small farmers would not be high on the list either. The EU provides a convenient politics free framework for cooperation on the island of Ireland, Brexit endangers all this. Some of the looper end of unionism hope for a fence along the border as a consequence and would have support in Britain for this kind of thing among the out crowd. This isn't very likely in practice, but anything remotely along those lines, customs posts, ID checks etc would kick off the whole thing in the 6 counties again. So people will want a lot of specific Anglo-Irish agreements to stop this, and this will involve more explicit arrangements than just coming in under the EU umbrella. As many non looper unionists will see that the present situation with both parts of Ireland in the EU is a stable one, and Brexit introducing possible destabilising factors including a renewed pressure for Scottish independence, so they will probably vote no, and so the DUP will be backing the losers.

If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

No wides

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #62 on: February 17, 2016, 11:22:41 AM »
It is just too uncertain for the UK to leave

The people of the UK will leave

A new prophet ::)

So its OK for folk to say they won't leave, the Tories have really misjudged this one, the immigration issue alone will mean those who are directly affected which is the majority of the low paid population will vote to get out under the mass hysteria that the likes of UKIP will generate.  Love your rolly eyes by the way really suits you.

muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #63 on: February 17, 2016, 01:00:25 PM »
Why are people using logic and reason to analyse the DUP position?

Ideology means everything to them, as it does to some other parties (and religions) around here. Independent thinking is not encouraged.
MWWSI 2017

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #64 on: February 17, 2016, 01:04:26 PM »
I think the DUP have lost the plot on this one, especially with a leader from a border agricultural constituency. Whatever plans the London government have for any money by not contributing to the EU, sending it to NI would not be at the front of the list and small farmers would not be high on the list either. The EU provides a convenient politics free framework for cooperation on the island of Ireland, Brexit endangers all this. Some of the looper end of unionism hope for a fence along the border as a consequence and would have support in Britain for this kind of thing among the out crowd. This isn't very likely in practice, but anything remotely along those lines, customs posts, ID checks etc would kick off the whole thing in the 6 counties again. So people will want a lot of specific Anglo-Irish agreements to stop this, and this will involve more explicit arrangements than just coming in under the EU umbrella. As many non looper unionists will see that the present situation with both parts of Ireland in the EU is a stable one, and Brexit introducing possible destabilising factors including a renewed pressure for Scottish independence, so they will probably vote no, and so the DUP will be backing the losers.


The DUP lost the plot a long time ago. Thanks to London subventions they have zero awareness of macroeconomics or fiscal responsibility Money comes from London and always will.

Brexit is a really stupid idea. The City will pack up and leave. What sort of industry does the DUP have to replace it with? Linen?
Lookit

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #65 on: February 17, 2016, 01:25:03 PM »
Again is this the white city?

deiseach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #66 on: February 17, 2016, 01:43:24 PM »
Again is this the white city?

No, it's the City.

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #67 on: February 17, 2016, 01:50:00 PM »
Why are people using logic and reason to analyse the DUP position?

Ideology means everything to them, as it does to some other parties (and religions) around here. Independent thinking is not encouraged.

Some of us are logical people, I suppose and we never learn the futility of applying logic to politicians.

That said, the DUP should be concerned with the Union between NI and GB and this Brexit threatens to weaken that union, if only because it would stir up centrifugal tendencies in Scotland. So, as usual, the unionists are acting in a way to threaten their own cause. Quelle surprise. 

I'm inclined to think the British won't go for it in the end, owing to the economic uncertainty. The danger would be that the middle of the road person would not turn out for the referendum.



If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Hound

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #68 on: February 18, 2016, 09:11:35 AM »
Personally I don't think our exports to the UK would reduce by any significant amount if UK left the EU. It would be better if they stayed in, but there's a lot of Y2K type scaremongering going on. Post Brexit, neither UK nor EU will do anything to damage trade links between the two.

One benefit of Brexit would be that it would help our battle against the UK in winning new foreign direct investment from North America. Although an independent Scotland in the EU would greatly change that equation.

NI would be the one area to suffer in my view if there was a Brexit. The reasons for foreign companies to set up or maintain operations in NI would be reduced further.

Interesting on BBC news last night. They led with the bad news that the north looks like losing 1,000 jobs due to Bombardier reducing operations. Next story was on how employment levels in the rest of the UK is going upwards, and they had a lad on being interviewed saying how great everything was.

deiseach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #69 on: February 18, 2016, 09:39:05 AM »
Personally I don't think our exports to the UK would reduce by any significant amount if UK left the EU. It would be better if they stayed in, but there's a lot of Y2K type scaremongering going on. Post Brexit, neither UK nor EU will do anything to damage trade links between the two.

They may not want to damage trade links, but once they get down to negotiations then all kind of taboos will be on the table. Brexit, should it happen, is going to be fuelled by a desire to restrict freedom of movement. There's absolutely no way the EU would tolerate a situation where there are restrictions on EU citizens entering the UK without responding in kind. There are bound to be extra costs for Irish exports to the UK. Although that has to be a mere bagatelle when set against having to produce a passport every time we enter the UK. I wonder whether my sense of national pride would weaken upon the sight of Mrs d sauntering through while Herr Flick interrogates me on my employment status and whether the boy has anything that might make him a medical tourist!

Hound

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #70 on: February 18, 2016, 01:21:18 PM »
Personally I don't think our exports to the UK would reduce by any significant amount if UK left the EU. It would be better if they stayed in, but there's a lot of Y2K type scaremongering going on. Post Brexit, neither UK nor EU will do anything to damage trade links between the two.

They may not want to damage trade links, but once they get down to negotiations then all kind of taboos will be on the table. Brexit, should it happen, is going to be fuelled by a desire to restrict freedom of movement. There's absolutely no way the EU would tolerate a situation where there are restrictions on EU citizens entering the UK without responding in kind. There are bound to be extra costs for Irish exports to the UK. Although that has to be a mere bagatelle when set against having to produce a passport every time we enter the UK. I wonder whether my sense of national pride would weaken upon the sight of Mrs d sauntering through while Herr Flick interrogates me on my employment status and whether the boy has anything that might make him a medical tourist!
All scaremongering in my view.

Not needing a passport to get into the UK from Ireland has nothing to do with the EU.

At the moment you need a passport to go from the rest of the EU to get into the UK. You don't need a passport to go from Ireland to the UK. That won't change post Brexit (so long as Ireland don't join Schengen, which we won't).

And the chances of EU or UK imposing tariffs on imports/exports are remote, to say the least. If/when Brexit looks like becoming a reality, the powers that be will make every effort to ensure it doesn't impact on EU-UK trade. Of course, that won't be broadcast in the short term, as we want to encourage the UK to stay rather than play down potential exit issues.

screenexile

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #71 on: February 18, 2016, 01:37:42 PM »
Personally I don't think our exports to the UK would reduce by any significant amount if UK left the EU. It would be better if they stayed in, but there's a lot of Y2K type scaremongering going on. Post Brexit, neither UK nor EU will do anything to damage trade links between the two.

They may not want to damage trade links, but once they get down to negotiations then all kind of taboos will be on the table. Brexit, should it happen, is going to be fuelled by a desire to restrict freedom of movement. There's absolutely no way the EU would tolerate a situation where there are restrictions on EU citizens entering the UK without responding in kind. There are bound to be extra costs for Irish exports to the UK. Although that has to be a mere bagatelle when set against having to produce a passport every time we enter the UK. I wonder whether my sense of national pride would weaken upon the sight of Mrs d sauntering through while Herr Flick interrogates me on my employment status and whether the boy has anything that might make him a medical tourist!
All scaremongering in my view.

Not needing a passport to get into the UK from Ireland has nothing to do with the EU.

At the moment you need a passport to go from the rest of the EU to get into the UK. You don't need a passport to go from Ireland to the UK. That won't change post Brexit (so long as Ireland don't join Schengen, which we won't).

And the chances of EU or UK imposing tariffs on imports/exports are remote, to say the least. If/when Brexit looks like becoming a reality, the powers that be will make every effort to ensure it doesn't impact on EU-UK trade. Of course, that won't be broadcast in the short term, as we want to encourage the UK to stay rather than play down potential exit issues.

I don't know what way it will affect our business. We export Irish Pharmaceuticals to the UK/EEA but this is only possible due to the free movement of goods across member states.

There will be huge regulatory issues around this for us and the rest of the Pharmaceutical industry if the UK leave the EU!

deiseach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #72 on: February 18, 2016, 01:59:21 PM »
I'm certainly not scaremongering. There's a large part of me that wants to see Brexit, if only to see what happens. But should Britain leave it will be seen as an overwhelming mandate for border controls. When I say you would have to 'produce a passport', I don't mean like the perfunctory process you have to go through when arriving at Cherbourg or Charles de Gaulle, I mean having to go through immigration. That is the absolute minimum that the Outers will expect from their victory. And while I think it less likely that tariffs will be imposed on trade, checking every vehicle that travels between Ireland and the UK for rats migrants is going to be a ruinously expensive business. Now, it's possible that some understanding will be reached. But I think that is to underestimate the xenophobia of the Outers, a phobia that wouldn't take long to mutate into a spot of Paddy-bashing if the presence of some open borders is perceived to be a sticking point.

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2016, 03:00:33 PM »
They'll need some army of Immigration officials to vet everyone travelling from the 26 Cos to the 6 Cos ;D
Be some craic for Donegalers heading to and from Clones on U F day.
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Applesisapples

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #74 on: February 19, 2016, 11:22:00 AM »
Some one on another thread described unionism as British Nationalism which sums up their approach to the EU. It is not based on logic but gut feeling. Mind you Nationalism works the same way in reverse. Most right thinking EU leaders outside the old Eastern Block should be supporting the changes Cameron is looking to make especially around benefits and migration.