Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 601836 times)

balladmaker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1323
  • Irish To The Core!
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8805 on: October 22, 2019, 11:25:12 PM »
Labour need to drag brexit into a GE

Which is exactly what Boris Johnson wants. He gets a working majority (with the support of Brexit MPs in a pact) and will kick the 'deal' to touch and go for a hard total Brexit. He will get the support of the DUPs that survive the GE in the North as well because they will get the hard border that they crave. Looks to me like a well- set trap. Labour eventually will have to agree to an election.

Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I dunno. A Boris majority after GE ( regardless of where the majority comes from) means that the deal is dead and buried. It's a clean slate and I suspect that it will be a no deal Brexit. A second referendum might happen with Scotland but the DUP will be on the pig's back. A hard border and loads of angst that they want so badly.

A hard border is the direct path to a winnable border poll within the next decade.

Eamonnca1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5888
  • Catching the world in my headlights of justice
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8806 on: October 22, 2019, 11:30:47 PM »


Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I wouldn't count on that. The cash-for-ash scandal wasn't enough to finish Arlene and bring about a UUP renaissance. What makes you think the Brexit debacle will be any different? All the DUP have to do is wave the orange fleg and berate the Shinners hard enough that they'll come back with as many MPs as before, and probably even more.

Fionntamhnach

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2723
  • "If I won the award for laziness, I'd send somebody to pick it up for me."
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8807 on: October 22, 2019, 11:42:48 PM »
In todays "You couldn't make it up", former NI Secretary & ERG member Owen Patterson quoted Michael Collins in the House of Commons today, ending "I hope I don't follow the fate of Michael Collins".

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1186686142038626305

I would say that using a speech from Collins whom at that time was seeking to achieve Irish independence from the British Empire, in the context of the UK leaving the EU, makes me think that self-awareness is not Patterson's strong point - unless he was looking to really wind up the DUP.
Fighting against ignorance on the internet since 1999. It's just taking longer than I hoped.

screenexile

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10755
  • Up The Screen!
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8808 on: October 23, 2019, 12:03:01 AM »


Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I wouldn't count on that. The cash-for-ash scandal wasn't enough to finish Arlene and bring about a UUP renaissance. What makes you think the Brexit debacle will be any different? All the DUP have to do is wave the orange fleg and berate the Shinners hard enough that they'll come back with as many MPs as before, and probably even more.

Fingers crossed Arlene gets nailed when the report comes out RHI isnít over yet!!

As for the Loyalists itís laughable. Apparently when us remainers called them stupid and said they didnít know what they voted for we were just part of the sneering liberal elite and we were trying to deny their sovereignty... f**k them they deserve everything they get!!

They gambled that they could get a hard border in Ireland and it backfired spectacularly on them.

As a matter of interest who is this Loyalist Civil unrest going to be aimed at?? Itís not the Irish Govts fault the UK voted out... itís not the Nationalist/Remainers fault... they voted to leave so they can hardly take it out on themselves.

Theyíll have to mount a campaign against the British Govt on the mainland... Theyíll need to be sure they have the correct export papers when they get to Holyhead though!!!

Eamonnca1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5888
  • Catching the world in my headlights of justice
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8809 on: October 23, 2019, 12:30:13 AM »


Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I wouldn't count on that. The cash-for-ash scandal wasn't enough to finish Arlene and bring about a UUP renaissance. What makes you think the Brexit debacle will be any different? All the DUP have to do is wave the orange fleg and berate the Shinners hard enough that they'll come back with as many MPs as before, and probably even more.

Fingers crossed Arlene gets nailed when the report comes out RHI isnít over yet!!

As for the Loyalists itís laughable. Apparently when us remainers called them stupid and said they didnít know what they voted for we were just part of the sneering liberal elite and we were trying to deny their sovereignty... f**k them they deserve everything they get!!

They gambled that they could get a hard border in Ireland and it backfired spectacularly on them.

As a matter of interest who is this Loyalist Civil unrest going to be aimed at?? Itís not the Irish Govts fault the UK voted out... itís not the Nationalist/Remainers fault... they voted to leave so they can hardly take it out on themselves.

Theyíll have to mount a campaign against the British Govt on the mainland... Theyíll need to be sure they have the correct export papers when they get to Holyhead though!!!

Innocent taigs, if the past is anything to go by.

tyrone08

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 230
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8810 on: October 23, 2019, 06:23:36 AM »


Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I wouldn't count on that. The cash-for-ash scandal wasn't enough to finish Arlene and bring about a UUP renaissance. What makes you think the Brexit debacle will be any different? All the DUP have to do is wave the orange fleg and berate the Shinners hard enough that they'll come back with as many MPs as before, and probably even more.

Fingers crossed Arlene gets nailed when the report comes out RHI isnít over yet!!

As for the Loyalists itís laughable. Apparently when us remainers called them stupid and said they didnít know what they voted for we were just part of the sneering liberal elite and we were trying to deny their sovereignty... f**k them they deserve everything they get!!

They gambled that they could get a hard border in Ireland and it backfired spectacularly on them.

As a matter of interest who is this Loyalist Civil unrest going to be aimed at?? Itís not the Irish Govts fault the UK voted out... itís not the Nationalist/Remainers fault... they voted to leave so they can hardly take it out on themselves.

Theyíll have to mount a campaign against the British Govt on the mainland... Theyíll need to be sure they have the correct export papers when they get to Holyhead though!!!

Innocent taigs, if the past is anything to go by.

The loyalist anger will always be directed at Catholics. Any normal person would have seen this as a clear sign that the British government doesn't want or care for NI. But the loyalists like a needy child want to cling on for dear life.

Wouldn't expect the DUP to lose many mps at the next election. Their base are the same hard-core followers as Donald Trumps, nothing the DUP does will affect that base.

One thing I have learnt from the troubles documentary is that a loyalist campaign will not survive without being fed information from the British government. Can't see this happening this time though.

haranguerer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3239
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8811 on: October 23, 2019, 08:55:44 AM »
The old enemy  ::)

Its the Irish govt who are getting it, accompanied by cries of republicans having been rewarded for threatening violence.

I do think at this point its sabre rattling when there still is a chance of it having some effect, and hopefully when Brexit sorted it will settle into something more constructive (working class loyalism needs representation, take on the DUP at the polls), but there will undoubtedly be some eejits who'll seek to cause trouble, and as soon as they do, Bryson et al should be lifted for incitement.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 23770
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8812 on: October 23, 2019, 09:06:59 AM »
These FT numbers are amazing

"After the British governmentís partition of Ireland in 1920-21, the areas in and around Belfast in the north produced about 80 per cent of the whole islandís industrial output. Now the Republicís output is 10 times greater than Northern Irelandís."
Lookit

yellowcard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8813 on: October 23, 2019, 09:35:47 AM »


Youíre correct in that Johnson wants a general election to establish a majority government, it has been his modus operandi from the get go. However, the DUP will no longer be relevant after the next election barring another quirk of fate with the numbers. If the opposition granted him an election (which I doubt they will) I think he will use this to try and get his deal from last week ratified. The downside of an election for the Tories will be their annihilation in Scotland and the potential for the next government to grant a second independence referendum after Brexit is done.

I wouldn't count on that. The cash-for-ash scandal wasn't enough to finish Arlene and bring about a UUP renaissance. What makes you think the Brexit debacle will be any different? All the DUP have to do is wave the orange fleg and berate the Shinners hard enough that they'll come back with as many MPs as before, and probably even more.

When I say no longer relevant I mean that the numbers are very unlikely to afford them the opportunity of holding the balance of power again and I don't think their obstruction to the existing government would endear any potential future minority government to embrace them again even if they did.

In terms of seats and votes, I agree totally that not much will change. They will blame the EU, the Shinners and the Irish government and return with a similar amount of seats. This won't say anything about the quality of leadership within Unionism though, young people of a different generation have been left bemused and dismayed by the DUP's behaviour under Arlene Foster's leadership.

t_mac

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 592
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8814 on: October 23, 2019, 09:44:08 AM »
Unfortunately an Election will give Tories a huge majority, Brexit party will do feck all, and Libs and Greens will spilt Labour - Boris will get his way maybe not by Oct 31st but by Christmas.

screenexile

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10755
  • Up The Screen!
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8815 on: October 23, 2019, 09:51:25 AM »
Unfortunately an Election will give Tories a huge majority, Brexit party will do feck all, and Libs and Greens will spilt Labour - Boris will get his way maybe not by Oct 31st but by Christmas.

I can't see the Tories getting a huge majority

1. They've lost Scotland now with Ruth Davidson gone and Scotland getting shafted

2. They've lost London with their leave stance

3. The staunch Labour leave voting areas they are targeting up North will still find it difficult to put a tick in the box for a Tory

A GE will still have to be some kind of coalition government and who wants to form a coalition with the Tories?? DUP won't again and they'll siphen off a fair chunk of their membership if they go into coalition with the Brexit party.

It's all to play for!!

yellowcard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8816 on: October 23, 2019, 01:46:28 PM »
Nigel Dodds is now calling out the UK PM and the Brexit secretary as either liars or incompetent on twitter.

Looks like the DUP have now gone full rogue against the Tories, could we yet see them switch sides to a softer customs union Brexit option in tandem with the opposition. Either way they are loving this media spotlight.

weareros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 759
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8817 on: October 23, 2019, 02:29:04 PM »
Nigel Dodds is now calling out the UK PM and the Brexit secretary as either liars or incompetent on twitter.

Looks like the DUP have now gone full rogue against the Tories, could we yet see them switch sides to a softer customs union Brexit option in tandem with the opposition. Either way they are loving this media spotlight.

The media spotlight they love could also be termed: give them enough rope and they will hang themselves.

TabClear

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1487
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8818 on: October 23, 2019, 04:48:37 PM »
Nigel Dodds is now calling out the UK PM and the Brexit secretary as either liars or incompetent on twitter.

Looks like the DUP have now gone full rogue against the Tories, could we yet see them switch sides to a softer customs union Brexit option in tandem with the opposition. Either way they are loving this media spotlight.

The media spotlight they love could also be termed: give them enough rope and they will hang themselves.

The problem with that particular shower is that they have no shame. Some of the ramblings of their so called senior party members are borderline deranged, hypocritical and so nonsensical that they make the Donald look measured and yet they still get voted back in as long as themmums dont like it.

If they screw themselves with the Tories they could nt care less, as long as they can crow on TV about how they stood up for the Union (and fcuk the unionist businesses, farmers etc that will suffer as a consequence) 
« Last Edit: October 23, 2019, 04:51:44 PM by TabClear »

Fionntamhnach

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2723
  • "If I won the award for laziness, I'd send somebody to pick it up for me."
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8819 on: October 23, 2019, 06:01:48 PM »
Nigel Dodds is now calling out the UK PM and the Brexit secretary as either liars or incompetent on twitter.

Looks like the DUP have now gone full rogue against the Tories, could we yet see them switch sides to a softer customs union Brexit option in tandem with the opposition. Either way they are loving this media spotlight.

They might be loving the spotlight being shone on them beyond their own fiefdom, but it's quite likely the party will be ruined in the long term. They've shown themselves in Westminster to be as flexible as a brick when they aren't selling themselves as a not-that-particularly-cheap whore. No MP on the green benches that supports remain or even some "soft" form of Brexit will touch them with a 40ft pole, while Johnson, Rees-Mogg and fellow Brexit travellers have not exactly been hiding their body language in letting everyone know that they used the likes of Sammy, Dodds, IPJ, Flegory etc. as useful idiots and have now expired their usefulness.

The history of the DUP is littered with them being involved in burning bridges. If the fantasy one connecting loyal Ulster to the west of Scotland ever actually became a reality, the DUP would end up burning that bridge as well before long.
Fighting against ignorance on the internet since 1999. It's just taking longer than I hoped.