Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 692548 times)

Dougal Maguire

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8295 on: September 12, 2019, 07:15:37 AM »
So he can now add the queen to the list of people he’s pissed off since becoming PM
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RedHand88

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8296 on: September 12, 2019, 07:47:28 AM »
Not a hope Leave will win, unfortunately.

Interesting reading the old comments on this thread  :P

Main Street

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8297 on: September 12, 2019, 10:10:44 PM »
Seeing that Labour are so adament that there should not be a no deal Brexit, what was their rationale for voting against the Brexit withdrawal agreement last january?

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8298 on: September 12, 2019, 10:49:42 PM »
Seeing that Labour are so adament that there should not be a no deal Brexit, what was their rationale for voting against the Brexit withdrawal agreement last january?

Because the Tories negotiated it?
Labour reckon that  if you keep the heat on then the Tories will blow a gasket.
They may be correct.
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omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8299 on: September 12, 2019, 10:54:39 PM »
Seeing that Labour are so adament that there should not be a no deal Brexit, what was their rationale for voting against the Brexit withdrawal agreement last january?

The withdrawal agreement was based on May's redlines such as operating outside the Customs Union, common market etc.
Labour were opposed to those things

Main Street

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8300 on: September 12, 2019, 11:02:44 PM »
Thanks,
so Labour were more for an EEA type connection to the EEU?

trileacman

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8301 on: September 12, 2019, 11:05:35 PM »
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 11:07:23 PM by trileacman »
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omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8302 on: September 12, 2019, 11:09:08 PM »
Thanks,
so Labour were more for an EEA type connection to the EEU?

In short Labour were more Norway... the Tories more Canada

omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8303 on: September 12, 2019, 11:12:16 PM »
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.

Any government that doesn't want retaliatory action from countries that they have trade agreement with, or fines from the WTO

trileacman

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8304 on: September 12, 2019, 11:58:11 PM »
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.

Any government that doesn't want retaliatory action from countries that they have trade agreement with, or fines from the WTO

The Irish government have already openly committed to a softly softly approach at the border and in private at the ports.
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8305 on: September 13, 2019, 12:11:56 AM »
Times of London suggest that the DUP are reversing course.

The move by the DUP was described by one government source as “significant” and the basis for a potential compromise with Brussels. However, the source cautioned that a deal was still “a long way off.’’

The proposal is understood to have been discussed on Monday when Mr Johnson met Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister. Getting Dublin’s support for the plan is regarded as critical if it is to be taken seriously in European capitals.

Separately, it is understood that the government is preparing to beef up its Brexit negotiating team, effectively reversing the decision to disband the Whitehall unit formerly headed by Sir Oliver Robbins, who led the official talks on Theresa May’s deal. “There is an acknowledgment in Downing Street that if they can’t get an election they need a deal,” a Whitehall source said.

The move by the DUP to accept some checks at ports in Britain and Northern Ireland is a significant change in stance. It has also softened its position on Northern Ireland continuing to follow and adopt new EU single market rules relating to cross-border trade even if the rest of the UK does not.

When the party vetoed Mrs May’s plan for the Northern Ireland-only backstop in 2017, its leader Arlene Foster said: “We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the United Kingdom.” Party sources now say that they could accept regulatory divergence as long as it was done with the “consent” of Northern Irish democratic institutions. They made clear that this would not require the Northern Ireland executive and assembly, which collapsed more than two years ago, to be up and running before October 31.

“That could happen in the transition period,” they said, adding they were “positive” that a deal could be done.

The agreement could find favour in Brussels as the EU is most concerned about Northern Ireland becoming a back door into the bloc’s single market for non-compliant goods if the UK signs trade deals with countries such as the United States.

The only theoretical risk under the new plan would be that revenue from tariffs might fall, owing to the lack of customs checks at the border in Ireland. Brussels would have to accept the British argument that the risk would be small and offset by intelligence-led checks away from the border without the need for physical infrastructure.

In an unusual move, another DUP figure praised the role being played by Mr Varadkar. “He has accepted that any deal needs to take Unionists with them and be done with the consent of Unionists. The noises coming out of Dublin are much more positive than they have been for a very long time,” they said
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Dougal Maguire

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8306 on: September 13, 2019, 05:28:48 AM »
That's interesting but not surprising. Given that all sides of society are arguing for a deal the DUP had painted itself into a corner which was going to affect them electorally. I think Varadkar and Coveney have played a blinder. I dread to think what the position might have been had someone like Bruton been in charge.
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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8307 on: September 13, 2019, 07:45:07 AM »
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.
The polls are very volatile at the moment and based on the assumption that No Deal is in the public interest.
25% of Brits think no deal means no change
There is a reason why Leadsom wouldn't discuss Yellowhammer on TV
Lookit

RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8308 on: September 13, 2019, 11:40:26 AM »
Big Phil Hogan appointed as trade commissioner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49663525

That's who the UK would be negotiating their trade agreement with.

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johnnycool

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #8309 on: September 13, 2019, 11:55:38 AM »
Big Phil Hogan appointed as trade commissioner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49663525

That's who the UK would be negotiating their trade agreement with.


Who says those Europeans don't have a sense of humour!