Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 529419 times)

Fionntamhnach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7500 on: July 05, 2019, 03:58:30 PM »
Jeremy Corbyn's high point of his leadership of the British Labour Party was in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election. The problem is that he has pretty much pissed away all goodwill from that point on mainly because of his prolonged sitting-on-the-fence concerning what moves to make regarding Brexit. Even some his closer allied MPs like Diane Abbott and John McDonnell are starting to quietly shift away from Corbyn because apart from the Momentum cheerleaders, he's quite unpopular with the public in general.

YouGov have a regular survey asking who would make the better PM, the PM or the leader of the opposition. In the last survey a month ago, May was ahead of Corbyn by 12 percentage points - though the real winner by a clear margin was "dunno".

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ep5kkaxc7j/YG%20Trackers%20-%20Best%20Prime%20Minister.pdf

In the linked PDF above, it shows that Corbyn's best head to head results were the two surveys after the last GE on 8th June 2017. Since then it's been going slowly downhill for him. May has been more consistent, until her numbers took a pummelling close to the original date for Brexit on 29th March 2019. When you consider everything that has gone on concerning how pathetic May has been since her snap General Election tactic backfired, Corbyn being utterly impotent to be able to take advantage of an almost open goal has shown he's not a capable leader of a major political party. Say what you want about Tony Blair, but he would have had eaten alive  most of the Tories over several breakfasts by this stage.

Polls are useless in times of extreme volatility because chaos is very difficult for a herd of people to understand.

The mantra from many Corbyn supporters ever since he was elected leader of the UK Labour party has been to rubbish any polling that doesn't show him in a good light - except the few that have actually shown him being competitive. Saying that polls since May became PM are useless is a cop out unless you can show that the methodology in conducting the polling is flawed.

Under his leadership, Labour have had two notable "blips" against expected forecasts - one was the 2017 General Election, the one May very much threw away what looked like the Tories getting a 100+ seat majority when it was announced, to where a few days before the poll the gap narrowed to where there was potential talk of May no longer having a majority in the Commons, or at least no better than what she had. The second one was in the recent by-election in Peterborough - the one where all the stars were aligning to give the Brexit Party its first MP, where the day before polling they were between 1/8 and 1/12 to win the seat. And they got pipped at the end. In the former, May's utter ineptitude to be a strong communicator coupled with a micromanaged campaign trail cost the Tories to end up having to do a confidence & supply deal with the DUP. Labour did better than expected, and celebrated like they won - but they were still in opposition and had no chance of forming a coalition themselves, the only victory being a moral one akin to Kinnock in 1987. In the latter, it was a combination of a large block of party activists whom descended on the constituency in the last two days before polling, coupled with a targeted vote by "remainers" to try and ensure the BXP did not win. A notable reversal from the EU elections where Labour's share of the vote went down 10 percentage points.

Even outside of issues like Brexit, Corbyn's leadership has been less than stellar, seeing several of his MPs break away, his handling of alleged Anti-Semetic attitudes within the party, reports of a toxic attitude within the parliamentary party mentioned by several MPs (fingers being pointed by Seamus Miline) etc. While plenty of this has been likely exaggerated by the usual fag-ends of the right-wing media in Britain, his ability to both handle such issues mentioned above and the way he's taken decisive action or not (like the Alistair Campbell expulsion) has shown him up as being little more than a common trope of modern left-wing politics in Britain, a politician of protest, but not a politician of governance. Corbyn is in his element standing at a particular base on the backbenches fighting on points of principle and being an eternal campaigner, but as a party leader whom has to try and bring along all factions together to battle as one, he's been useless.

And the thing is, there is quite a bit that Corbyn has stood for, for a long time, that is actually popular with the general British public. However the same right-wing media I mentioned above have done an excellent job that no matter what policies you might find popular, having them being attached to a certain party, party wing or politician will stop it dead in its tracks. There are popular ideas of having the likes of water, electric, rail networks etc. in public ownership hands, but will not vote for a Labour party, especially one that is being led from the party's left.

And the BIG problem right now is the man that is leading the party. Corbyn has pissed away goodwill from floating "Remain" voters whom were willing to give him a chance to shine even after giving lacklustre support to remaining in the EU in the 2016 referendum. And he's done nothing on that other than continuously gather splinters on his arse. A new labour party leader could have political views that, other than being a firm remainer, would largely chime with those of Corbyn and could help bring the right-leaning end of the Labour party at least into a ceasefire of sorts to put up a united front.

The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn has as much chance of becoming British Prime Minister now or in the future, as Foghorn Leghorn has of becoming the next James Bond. The longer he leads the Labour party, the more time that'll be needed to repair the party's image with the voting public, if it can be repaired at all.
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Denn Forever

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ziggysego

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7502 on: July 18, 2019, 11:34:01 AM »
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seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7503 on: July 18, 2019, 11:51:12 AM »
Telegraph.

«  John Bercow has thrown no-deal rebels a lifeline by selecting a cross-party amendment that will stop Boris Johnson suspending parliament.
This morning the speaker selected the Dominic Grieve amendment that will be voted on as part of the Northern Ireland Bill later today. »

https://youtu.be/GGU1P6lBW6Q
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red hander

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7504 on: July 18, 2019, 02:55:45 PM »
The Brits are really in a desperate state and it's hilarious to sit back and watch. They are about to put in 10 Downing Street a total spoofer and incompetent... I doubt he will even last long enough to deliver his Brexit plan once all those skeletons in the cupboard start falling out  :)

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7505 on: July 18, 2019, 03:03:47 PM »
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bennydorano

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7506 on: July 18, 2019, 03:14:30 PM »
I watched the BBC lunchtime news about this, I thought the disruption costs and likely recessionary impact that were quoted were very conservative tbh, if that were to be the cost of Brexit it would put absolutely no Brexiteers off and would get a general shrug of the shoulders from the public imo. If Sterling  doesn't tank the general public will notice very little difference bar the initial border mayhem if the OBR forecast is anywhere near right.

Fionntamhnach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7507 on: July 18, 2019, 11:51:04 PM »
The Brits are really in a desperate state and it's hilarious to sit back and watch. They are about to put in 10 Downing Street a total spoofer and incompetent... I doubt he will even last long enough to deliver his Brexit plan once all those skeletons in the cupboard start falling out  :)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49030225
Johnson has already lost a vote in the HoC and he's not even the Prime Minister yet!  :o
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omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7508 on: July 19, 2019, 12:26:23 AM »
The Brits are really in a desperate state and it's hilarious to sit back and watch. They are about to put in 10 Downing Street a total spoofer and incompetent... I doubt he will even last long enough to deliver his Brexit plan once all those skeletons in the cupboard start falling out  :)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49030225
Johnson has already lost a vote in the HoC and he's not even the Prime Minister yet!  :o
Looks like a few ministers will be joining the Dissenting Tory remain bloc

Looks like Kate Hoey was the one Labour MP who voted against. She like the feckin 11th DUP MP!

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Dougal Maguire

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7509 on: July 19, 2019, 12:41:32 AM »
I see Rees Mogg made a complete tit of himself after the Cricket win. ‘Do we need Europe’ he tweeted after a team captain by an Irishman and full of immigrants won the thing for them.
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7510 on: July 19, 2019, 12:46:39 AM »
I see Rees Mogg made a complete tit of himself after the Cricket win. ‘Do we need Europe’ he tweeted after a team captain by an Irishman and full of immigrants won the thing for them.

I'm sure if the Germans took any interest in Cricket they'd still beat England.
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johnnycool

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7511 on: July 19, 2019, 08:54:25 AM »
I see Rees Mogg made a complete tit of himself after the Cricket win. ‘Do we need Europe’ he tweeted after a team captain by an Irishman and full of immigrants won the thing for them.

Did he not also suggest that all these economists were incorrect in suggesting that the UK economy would actually grow more after a Hard Brexit and wouldn't shrink as most are expecting if such a thing comes to pass.

He's becoming a parody of himself at this stage.

mouview

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7512 on: July 19, 2019, 12:20:21 PM »
Boris making a tit of himself again, blaming the EU as usual for regulations brought in by the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49030873


seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #7513 on: July 19, 2019, 12:43:56 PM »
Jeremy Corbyn's high point of his leadership of the British Labour Party was in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election. The problem is that he has pretty much pissed away all goodwill from that point on mainly because of his prolonged sitting-on-the-fence concerning what moves to make regarding Brexit. Even some his closer allied MPs like Diane Abbott and John McDonnell are starting to quietly shift away from Corbyn because apart from the Momentum cheerleaders, he's quite unpopular with the public in general.

YouGov have a regular survey asking who would make the better PM, the PM or the leader of the opposition. In the last survey a month ago, May was ahead of Corbyn by 12 percentage points - though the real winner by a clear margin was "dunno".

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ep5kkaxc7j/YG%20Trackers%20-%20Best%20Prime%20Minister.pdf

In the linked PDF above, it shows that Corbyn's best head to head results were the two surveys after the last GE on 8th June 2017. Since then it's been going slowly downhill for him. May has been more consistent, until her numbers took a pummelling close to the original date for Brexit on 29th March 2019. When you consider everything that has gone on concerning how pathetic May has been since her snap General Election tactic backfired, Corbyn being utterly impotent to be able to take advantage of an almost open goal has shown he's not a capable leader of a major political party. Say what you want about Tony Blair, but he would have had eaten alive  most of the Tories over several breakfasts by this stage.

Polls are useless in times of extreme volatility because chaos is very difficult for a herd of people to understand.

The mantra from many Corbyn supporters ever since he was elected leader of the UK Labour party has been to rubbish any polling that doesn't show him in a good light - except the few that have actually shown him being competitive. Saying that polls since May became PM are useless is a cop out unless you can show that the methodology in conducting the polling is flawed.

Under his leadership, Labour have had two notable "blips" against expected forecasts - one was the 2017 General Election, the one May very much threw away what looked like the Tories getting a 100+ seat majority when it was announced, to where a few days before the poll the gap narrowed to where there was potential talk of May no longer having a majority in the Commons, or at least no better than what she had. The second one was in the recent by-election in Peterborough - the one where all the stars were aligning to give the Brexit Party its first MP, where the day before polling they were between 1/8 and 1/12 to win the seat. And they got pipped at the end. In the former, May's utter ineptitude to be a strong communicator coupled with a micromanaged campaign trail cost the Tories to end up having to do a confidence & supply deal with the DUP. Labour did better than expected, and celebrated like they won - but they were still in opposition and had no chance of forming a coalition themselves, the only victory being a moral one akin to Kinnock in 1987. In the latter, it was a combination of a large block of party activists whom descended on the constituency in the last two days before polling, coupled with a targeted vote by "remainers" to try and ensure the BXP did not win. A notable reversal from the EU elections where Labour's share of the vote went down 10 percentage points.

Even outside of issues like Brexit, Corbyn's leadership has been less than stellar, seeing several of his MPs break away, his handling of alleged Anti-Semetic attitudes within the party, reports of a toxic attitude within the parliamentary party mentioned by several MPs (fingers being pointed by Seamus Miline) etc. While plenty of this has been likely exaggerated by the usual fag-ends of the right-wing media in Britain, his ability to both handle such issues mentioned above and the way he's taken decisive action or not (like the Alistair Campbell expulsion) has shown him up as being little more than a common trope of modern left-wing politics in Britain, a politician of protest, but not a politician of governance. Corbyn is in his element standing at a particular base on the backbenches fighting on points of principle and being an eternal campaigner, but as a party leader whom has to try and bring along all factions together to battle as one, he's been useless.

And the thing is, there is quite a bit that Corbyn has stood for, for a long time, that is actually popular with the general British public. However the same right-wing media I mentioned above have done an excellent job that no matter what policies you might find popular, having them being attached to a certain party, party wing or politician will stop it dead in its tracks. There are popular ideas of having the likes of water, electric, rail networks etc. in public ownership hands, but will not vote for a Labour party, especially one that is being led from the party's left.

And the BIG problem right now is the man that is leading the party. Corbyn has pissed away goodwill from floating "Remain" voters whom were willing to give him a chance to shine even after giving lacklustre support to remaining in the EU in the 2016 referendum. And he's done nothing on that other than continuously gather splinters on his arse. A new labour party leader could have political views that, other than being a firm remainer, would largely chime with those of Corbyn and could help bring the right-leaning end of the Labour party at least into a ceasefire of sorts to put up a united front.

The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn has as much chance of becoming British Prime Minister now or in the future, as Foghorn Leghorn has of becoming the next James Bond. The longer he leads the Labour party, the more time that'll be needed to repair the party's image with the voting public, if it can be repaired at all.

The Tories haven''t collapsed yet. Labour are on 29%
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seafoid

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