Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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omaghjoe

Quote from: Dubh driocht on February 08, 2019, 11:28:24 PM
I am now strongly of the view that we're on the one road here, and while it may be the long road we're together now - so who cares. There have been regular and informed comments from many posters, particularly Seafoid, which have helped me understand what's going on. Now I think it has boiled down to this: if the worst happens and the UK crash out with no deal it's now inevitable there will be a united Ireland within 10 years so happy days. If the best happens and the UK gets a deal which we are all happy with then life goes on as is and we still progress towards a united Ireland at a slower pace so happy days.

Anyone else get a chuckle at this??


manfromdelmonte

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 08, 2019, 02:15:27 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 09:00:26 PM
Anything more specific?

I assume your question is related to trade?

It is widely accepted that there is a correlation between core infrastructure (transport/utilities) and productivity. Taken that given, then...


If there were a UI, we would likely see vast improvements in infrastructure in the border areas leading to improved growth in these areas. The improvement of the roads already within the ROI due to EU led investment should be consider as examples. For instance, we would most likely definitely see:
- New main road linking Monaghan to Maguiresbridge.
- Improved main road linking Enniskillen to Donegal town (via Ballyshannon).
- The A5 gets done rather than dithered over.

Then, dealing with the east coast:
- The York road junction gets done rather than dithered over.
- The Dublin-Belfast enterprise service gets new rolling stock that pulls the journey time down to around an hour (its only 100 miles). Even use of the older intercity 125s on a track fit for purpose would see a big drop in journey time - current top speed is limited to 90 mph. The enterprise service as it stands at the moment is an embarrassment. Benign topology and yet the best we can do is an average speed of ~55 mph between the 2 largest cities just 100 miles apart?

We would possibly see:
- extension of the dual carriageway from Ballygawley to Enniskillen. I wouldn't imagine this would dual carriageway over to Ballyshannon.
- improvements of the links to Warrenpoint dock so freight can be moved more quickly onto the motorway/rail network.

I'd also like to think there would be EU monies put toward improving broadband infrastructure in rural areas, which would also lead to improved economic output from our smaller businesses.
Rural broadband in the south is pathetic
There has been very little investment since the state privatised telecom eireann as Eircom and that has been resold, twice is it now?

Rail is not used for Freight very much in the south as the motorway network is faster

Don't assume the boys down south are any better at infrastructure delivery

armaghniac

Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 09, 2019, 08:34:05 AM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 08, 2019, 02:15:27 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 09:00:26 PM
Anything more specific?

I assume your question is related to trade?

It is widely accepted that there is a correlation between core infrastructure (transport/utilities) and productivity. Taken that given, then...


If there were a UI, we would likely see vast improvements in infrastructure in the border areas leading to improved growth in these areas. The improvement of the roads already within the ROI due to EU led investment should be consider as examples. For instance, we would most likely definitely see:
- New main road linking Monaghan to Maguiresbridge.
- Improved main road linking Enniskillen to Donegal town (via Ballyshannon).
- The A5 gets done rather than dithered over.

Then, dealing with the east coast:
- The York road junction gets done rather than dithered over.
- The Dublin-Belfast enterprise service gets new rolling stock that pulls the journey time down to around an hour (its only 100 miles). Even use of the older intercity 125s on a track fit for purpose would see a big drop in journey time - current top speed is limited to 90 mph. The enterprise service as it stands at the moment is an embarrassment. Benign topology and yet the best we can do is an average speed of ~55 mph between the 2 largest cities just 100 miles apart?

We would possibly see:
- extension of the dual carriageway from Ballygawley to Enniskillen. I wouldn't imagine this would dual carriageway over to Ballyshannon.
- improvements of the links to Warrenpoint dock so freight can be moved more quickly onto the motorway/rail network.

I'd also like to think there would be EU monies put toward improving broadband infrastructure in rural areas, which would also lead to improved economic output from our smaller businesses.
Rural broadband in the south is pathetic
There has been very little investment since the state privatised telecom eireann as Eircom and that has been resold, twice is it now?


This is only partly true, while broadband remains crap in many places a significant number of people in more populated rural areas in the 26 counties have now got FTTH, there will be 300,000 in total, there is a still feck all FTTH in the North.

And while the children's hospital shows the limitations of politically driven infrastructure delivery in the 26 counties, they had more or less got the hang of building roads.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B




seafoid

Helen McEntee TD
Helen McEntee TD
@HMcEntee
·
3m
Fantastic win for Meath over Armagh today. Friendly crowd at Páirc Tailteann in Navan - a great occasion of shared Irishness. A few Armagh supporters had a non-GAA request for me: 'Don't abandon us in Brexit'.
Ireland will not accept the return of a border.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Jim_Murphy_74

Quote from: seafoid on February 10, 2019, 10:43:44 PM
Helen McEntee TD
Helen McEntee TD
@HMcEntee
·
3m
Fantastic win for Meath over Armagh today. Friendly crowd at Páirc Tailteann in Navan - a great occasion of shared Irishness. A few Armagh supporters had a non-GAA request for me: 'Don't abandon us in Brexit'.
Ireland will not accept the return of a border.

Listening to Tomas O'Sé and Ciaran Whelan after game on Saturday the championship should really only have two teams and at the very least the hard Border should be drawn across the nine counties instead of six. 

/Jim

Shamrock Shore

Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on February 11, 2019, 09:10:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 10, 2019, 10:43:44 PM
Helen McEntee TD
Helen McEntee TD
@HMcEntee
·
3m
Fantastic win for Meath over Armagh today. Friendly crowd at Páirc Tailteann in Navan - a great occasion of shared Irishness. A few Armagh supporters had a non-GAA request for me: 'Don't abandon us in Brexit'.
Ireland will not accept the return of a border.

Listening to Tomas O'Sé and Ciaran Whelan after game on Saturday the championship should really only have two teams and at the very least the hard Border should be drawn across the nine counties instead of six. 

/Jim

I'd stretch some sort of corridor as well to take in Carlow behind the hard wall.


seafoid

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/11/theresa-may-leading-us-towards-highly-dangerous-no-deal-brexit/

Theresa May is leading us towards a highly dangerous no-deal Brexit and a united Ireland   
•   
John Bruton FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF IRELAND
11 February 2019 • 10:00am

We seem to be sliding inexorably toward a "no deal" Brexit. Theresa May's decision to prioritize a deal with the Brexiteers in her own party, over a possible deal with the Opposition, and the time limits imposed on all of us by Article 50, make a No Deal much more likely than it was a week ago.
The EU is a rule-based organisation, and it cannot afford to break its own rules if it wants to maintain its moral and political authority. The technical fixes, advocated by the Tory Brexiteers, cannot be worked through between now and 29 March.
At this late stage, Mrs May can afford to gamble, because, politically, she has little left to lose. The EU cannot do so.
Its credibility is vital to its trade agreements with the rest of the world. Its internal cohesion depends on the consistent application of common rules.  Where will a No Deal leave Ireland?
On 1 April, the UK will be a non-EU country. By law, the EU will have to treat it as such. Ireland has opted to stay in the EU and will have to continue to apply EU law, including the EU Customs Code, in all its dealings with non-EU states, including the UK and Northern Ireland. That is a clear general principle.
The detail of how this might be applied at Irish ports and land boundaries, on traffic arriving from the UK, should now be clarified in minute detail.
There is no negotiating advantage now in withholding this information at this late stage, in light of Mrs May's choice to prioritize a deal with the Conservative Brexiteers over a deal with Labour.
Recently, the Belfast-based pollster LucidTalk asked people in Northern Ireland how Brexit might influence how they would vote in a referendum on leaving the UK and joining a United Ireland. Their results, I have to say, were quite surprising.
If there were a "no deal" Brexit crash-out of the EU: 55%  said they would either certainly or probably vote for a united Ireland, against 42% certainly or probably opting to stay in the UK.
If there were a Brexit based on Theresa May's withdrawal agreement: the outcome would be wide open, with 48 % opting to stay in the Union, and 48% wanting Irish unification.
What makes the difference in the poll is the crucial swing vote of the "neutrals", who are neither self-described unionists nor self-described nationalist/republicans.
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If there is no deal, only 14% of these "neutrals" would vote to remain in the UK! If there is Brexit on May's terms, that rises to 29%.
This poll should be read by Conservative MPs who claim perversely to oppose the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop due to their support for the Union of Northern Ireland with Britain. In the name of support for the Union, these Conservative MPs risk opening the way to a No Deal Brexit, the very outcome that would make a breakup of the Union most likely.
By backing Brexit at all costs, including a no-deal Brexit, the Democratic Unionist Party has enhanced the likelihood of a border poll that would end the Union. This is not a wise course for a "unionist" party to have followed. It plays into the hands of Sinn Fein.
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This DUP approach shows how the politics of identity can lead sensible people to adopt policies that lead to the very outcome that they do not want.
The poll data also raises questions about how the vast UK Exchequer subsidy towards public services in Northern Ireland could be met from the much smaller Irish Exchequer, in the event of a united Ireland being chosen by voters in a referendum in Northern Ireland. The implications for tax, and for public services and pay, in both parts of Ireland would be substantial.
There is also the question of how Loyalists, who passionately support the Union and who have a record of violence, might react to a referendum decision that did not go the way they wanted, and how the Garda Siochana and the Irish Army could cope with this.
Neither of these points is addressed by those, who refuse to take their seats where they could do some good, and who are instead constantly demanding a border poll. As Brexit shows, making a big decision on the basis on the basis of a 58/48% vote can have dire consequences.
Mrs May, by prioritizing Conservative Party unity over a cross-party approach, is leading these two islands into constitutional and emotional territory that has not been mapped, and that is highly dangerous.
John Bruton served as Taoiseach from 1994 to 1997 , then the EU's Ambassador to the USA (2004-2009)
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

grounded

Holy feck, big 'commonwealth' John manages to somehow implicate the shinners for the brexit mess. What a suprise.

Shamrock Shore

Did John Bruton finally escape from Prince Charles' arse?

grounded

Quote from: Shamrock Shore on February 11, 2019, 02:26:44 PM
Did John Bruton finally escape from Prince Charles' arse?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LHsvb7k7_ho

Never fails to make me laugh

seafoid


Ireland is again in the grip of Anglophobia

By

Here is a beauty from the House of Sindo


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/01/31/ireland-grip-anglophobia/

Eilis O'Hanlon

31 January 2019 • 6:30pm   

One hundred years ago, a small group of newly elected MPs met at the Mansion House in Dublin to declare Irish independence. Curiously, the passion that existed in Ireland back then for the inalienable right of nations to self-determination finds no contemporary echo when it comes to understanding the impulses that led to Brexit.

On the contrary, the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, may have used the recent centenary of that First Dail to laud the aspiration to a "free, independent and democratic state", but he shamelessly did so while asserting that it now finds its fullest expression in, and is best achieved through, membership of the EU. It's a telling indication of where the Irish public mood stands right now that he got away with such absurd revisionism.

EU membership has allowed Ireland to feel for once like the bigger party in its relationship with Britain, and that's been good for self-confidence; but it has also encouraged Dublin to overplay its hand in the current crisis. As time runs out towards March 29, it would be only natural for the Irish to wonder in hindsight if they had made the right call by throwing in their lot with Brussels, at the risk of good relations with their nearest neighbour. As it happens, there is no evidence of such second thoughts in Dublin at all, despite the decision to back the UK into a corner, which threatens to sour the rest of Varadkar's premiership.


Maintaining the solidarity of the EU at all costs has become an end in itself, even if it leads to a no-deal Brexit and a hard border, which is the very outcome it was meant to avoid.

Politically speaking, the Taoiseach remains fortunate. His party is behind him all the way; his bullish stance has proved popular in the polls; the Irish media is pretty much united in scorn against the UK's decision to leave the EU; and opposition parties have wrapped themselves in the green flag, rather than risk charges of disloyalty by daring to suggest that maybe, just maybe, Ireland should not have been so gung ho about pursuing a path with the potential to go so badly wrong.

It would be easy to blame the EU for pushing Ireland down this blind alley, using the threat of a hard border as leverage against Britain. Worryingly, however, the current mood of rancour towards the UK that has been stirred up by Brexit is more deeply embedded than that.

The Britain which the Irish are now set on repelling to the bitter end is one that exists in the collective consciousness as a folk memory of oppression; a synonym for historic ill‑treatment. That old trope had faded so much in recent times that it was tempting to hope it had gone for good. Now it's back, and what's troubling is how this rising tide of Anglophobia is flourishing among the educated, middle-class Irish who would have been aghast until lately to think they still had it in them.

They've been given permission to indulge in an old tribal animus, while being assured by their own government that this atavistic backlash is all the fault of the British themselves.

Even if Brussels were to perform one of its traditional "EU-turns" and put pressure on an unsuspecting Dublin to back down on the backstop, Irish opinion right now would still place the blame at Britain's door.

What's being forgotten is that it is not Britain which will have to deal with the consequences of any fall‑out from the raking up of ancient hostilities, but Ireland itself. Even moderate unionists in Northern Ireland are being treated again as hostile and alien as an old pan‑nationalist front reasserts itself under the sheltering wing of the EU.
Varadkar continues to fan these flames by stating that Ireland is being "victimised" by Brexit, while simultaneously positioning the country as a heavyweight going toe to toe with Britain, ready to punch it out to see who hits the canvas first. This mixture of aggression and self-pity is a dangerous brew.

If the brinksmanship backfires, the EU has its excuses ready. It can always say it was simply standing four-square behind a valued member state. It's the Irish who will pay the greater price – economically, but in a deeper sense, too, by recklessly undoing decades of reconciliation.


Eilis O'Hanlon writes for the Sunday Independent and Belfast Telegraph
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU