Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 430236 times)

yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6390 on: February 07, 2019, 05:13:28 PM »
Peopleís pockets trump their desire for a United ireland these days.

I have no doubt it's a contributory factor.  However, it's too simplistic on it's own.  Up until the last few years there was a move away from nationalism, but it was a move from nationalism in general, not just Irish nationalism.  Plenty more people would have seen the Good Friday agreement as having sort things out, even those that didn't saw it as managing the way to a united Ireland over a long term period.  More again accepted that by voting for referendum in the south you were accepting the principle of self-determination in the agreement.  This meant it was no longer your business.

Ironically despite the posturing in Eastern Europe it took the Brits to put nationalism really back on the agenda with Brexit.  The invite to join into British jingoism proved too much to resist for the DUP (predictably enough) and now they seem in turn to be awaking Irish nationalism.   In some ways similar to early 1900's where unionism gave a big helping hand to republicans over home rulers.

I've said it before that it is beyond believing how short sighted the DUP seem to be.   By keeping things on an even keel they could keep middle of road nationalist pretty neutral about change.  This was giving them a bulwark against the obvious demographic trends and keeping the Republic pretty laissez-faire about things.  I really can't believe that not one of them (or their paid advisors)  was pointing this out.   Instead they decide to get into some kind of turf war with the likes of the TUV when concessions on flags, rights and Irish Language (all things with no material consequence) would have won the day for unionism.  The writing was on the wall when the St Andrews was signed, enshrining a competition with Shinners into the system.

Frankly, Brexit is just the tin hat on it.  The are now riding roughshod over even their own constituency of protestant farmers and business people. So not only are the awaking dormant nationalists they may potentially do the unthinkable and drive some of their own to the other side.

I always hate to badge any group but it is hard to speculate anything other than, for the DUP,  sheer bigotry, supremacy and sectarianism is more important than the Union itself.  Strange as that reads, I find it hard to see other significant factors.  I use to think fear of the Shinners (based on history of IRA and the troubles) drove them.   However, if they had backed the UUP post Good Friday they could have helped SDLP be the only significant political force in nationalism, however then, like now, being the biggest voice in unionism seemed more important to them.

In an era of empowerment, diversity and equality Foster and May seem to be two female leaders are letting the side down badly.

/Jim.

That's an excellent post.  Interesting point when you say "By keeping things on an even keel they could keep middle of road nationalist pretty neutral about change".  I would totally agree with that.  I myself would probably be a middle of the road nationalist where having an UI has never bothered me. I have never been politically minded in the past & I have been happy enough with the status quo.  My mentality though has certainly changed post Brexit and am finding myself drifting more towards a stauncher (for want of a better word) view of nationalism and its been driven by the actions of the Brexiteers and the DUP locally 

Brexit to me is genuinely astounding. I mean the government is trying it's best to make things worse just because people who don't understand and won't listen to reason hate a Boogeyman entity that has actually improved their lives whether they are willing to admit it or not. It has it's flaws, but the EU is not the evil dictatorship some seem to think it is.

Reducing your ability to travel, study and work abroad. Denying your children the chances you had. Willingly jeopardizing a peace process with your nearest neighbour that took decades to achieve to placate morons and charlatans.

Blindly thinking trade deals with countries half way across the world with smaller and poorer populations will cover the loss of a huge market on your doorstep.

Then relying on an incompetent, ignorant and arrogant political class to negotiate these trade deals, when they are the ones forcing through this act of self harm in the most shambolic way imagineable in the first place.

We all know the EU and foreigners will be blamed when the shit hits the fan. 'If only a proper Leaver was in charge, we'd have shown the EU who's boss' they'll say, and then there'll be uproar when they have to queue up for hours getting into Spain on holidays.

How any or this will be explained by future historians is simply beyond me, so many moves made that literally make no sense, appalling application by the government and opposition.

It all beggars belief really. 

A place in hell awaits apparently.

I imagine that Tusk's choice of language was deliberate to provoke a debate. He know full well what the reaction would be. The sheer mention of hell to DUP Brexiteers would have driven them mental with rage and they reacted in the only way they know how. Maybe he shouldn't have mentioned 'hell' but the content of his argument was entirely accurate.

A bunch of middle class elite aided by many media outlets pushing their country over the cliff edge for personal gain. Boris Johnson earned £51k for a speech he give at a Dublin summit a few weeks back. The implications of Brexit will not affect the living standards of any of the people promoting Brexit nor the media moguls who assist them in stoking up fear and division among ordinary working class people.

 

Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6391 on: February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

Denn Forever

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6392 on: February 07, 2019, 05:24:32 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

Are they playing it smart (unwittingly) and avoiding the poisoned chalice?
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Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6393 on: February 07, 2019, 05:26:56 PM »
Not that it counts for much but the polls reckon the Tories would still win a General Election.

Which is absolutely mental given they are the most incompetent fools ever!

RadioGAAGAA

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6394 on: February 07, 2019, 05:46:05 PM »
And when you read that report you felt the closing of the deficit was fully explained?

Given the high level nature of it, you are always going to have to deal with high level assumptions.

The closing of deficit was not fully explained, nor would I agree with it.

However, I would expect improved growth in trade due to a UI (especially in the case where the UK has steered itself away from the EU), to lead to GDP growth and the tax revenue from that to bring about an approximate balancing of books.
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north_antrim_hound

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6395 on: February 07, 2019, 05:49:24 PM »
UI means corporate tax alignment with the south and a lot of international investment. EU would definitely subsidise to the abundant waste of disproportionate civil service expenditure is restructured.
Can we afford not to have a UI

Work that up into a detailed prospectus that tells the average man on the street north and south what that will mean in terms of their pocket and service provision and you stand a chance

OK we need two documents of that nature, the second one being the existing horlicks under British Rule. I know which one Iím putting my money on.

seafoid

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Sure it's only the league

yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6397 on: February 07, 2019, 07:25:32 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support. 

Walter Cronc

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6398 on: February 07, 2019, 07:57:58 PM »
That's kind of what I was getting at YC. The appeared lack of alternative options by Labour.

Is this article not a bit of a turn up? Spectator very tight wing. Maybe they actually see the DUP for the cretins they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/a-referendum-on-irish-unity-might-be-the-best-way-to-solve-the-brexit-border-issue/amp/

yellowcard

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6399 on: February 07, 2019, 08:19:56 PM »
That's kind of what I was getting at YC. The appeared lack of alternative options by Labour.

Is this article not a bit of a turn up? Spectator very tight wing. Maybe they actually see the DUP for the cretins they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/a-referendum-on-irish-unity-might-be-the-best-way-to-solve-the-brexit-border-issue/amp/

I think it's a simple case of English nationalism trumping any pretence that the union is precious. For many Brexiteers the preservation of the UK is important but just not as important as releasing themselves from the shackles of the EU and their delusions that some form of utopia will automatically follow. 

Previous polls carried out last year suggested that many within England would ditch the 6 counties if it became an obstruction to them getting the Brexit that they wanted. I think that article is probably just a manifestation of that. If the DUP did not hold the balance of power im Westminster my guess is that the border would already have been established in the Irish sea.   

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6400 on: February 07, 2019, 08:41:08 PM »
I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

Has anybody costed what a United Ireland would cost? People will say the British subvention,NHS cost etc.. but why should we have to adopt the British model of subvention and I am sure there is somebody on here with the expertise to explain the potential savings from the end of duplication of services and the ending of different tax regimes along with the huge social and confidence boost of being one country for the first time in 100 years!! Throw in EU reunification funds and development funds I am sure we it would be possible to mitigate against potential costs!! Personally I would happily take a hit in my pocket for the social boost to all of us if we could finally live together on this Island and I am sure there were probably plenty of potential economic arguments for my Grandfather to consider in 1916 for him and his family but he chose independence and when you look at Brexit I am delighted he did decide to fight!!!

https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf

Other than the subvention probably isnít as high as £9bn and that author hopes that GB would stand on for part of the subventions there is not a lot in that 150 pages

But that is precisely what is at the crux of the whole economic argument against re-unification, the budget deficit figure. The report has explained that there are savings to be had in various areas to almost negate that before any potential uplift in growth due to FDI and synergies. Did you actually read the full report?     

And when you read that report you felt the closing of the deficit was fully explained?

Did you not find some of the assumptions a little presumptuous and a little one sided? Almost as if the conclusions were fixed and the report was written to backfill a route to the conclusions?

The report assumes that the £2.8 Bn spent on pensions/social welfare would continue to be funded by GB. What if it isnít? What if itís not fully GB funded? What if GB funding didnít last forever? Where is the sensitivity analysis of any of these?

The report just assumes that as welfare rights accrued under a UK system they would be fully serviced by GB. It makes the completely opposite assumption in respect of debt servicing. Is that not a bit lob sided?

The convergence savings of £1.7 Bn relates to civil service wages. What if NI needs more public sector workers per capita because of reality on the ground here? And even if you could realise the £1.7 bn of treasury savings what is the impact of sucking those wages out of the economy?

Report talks a lot about planning. Germany had it. The German population was made up of unifiers and people who didnít really care. Nobody was dead set against it once the eastern German top brass were removed. Itís a bit different here. North and south who is going to commit to this planning in advance of a poll?

You ask an awful lot of questions yet you fail to answer as to whether you had actually read the full report or just taken selected extracts from it. My guess is that you have taken selected extracts from it to present your own argument. I'm not asking you whether you agree with it or not (you clearly have your mind made up already) just read it with an open mind rather than try to diss everything in it.

Of course there are a lot of assumptions how else can financial projections be anything otherwise in the absence of having a crystal ball. If you are looking for foolproof projections they won't exist in your argument against reunification either. Someone asked if anybody had carried out costings on a reunification and I simply posted this document up, people are clever enough to make up their own minds on it. My own view is that there would be a bit of short term pain but that mid-longer term it would create a lot of opportunities and in particular for the north which is an economic cesspit in comparision to the south.

I imagine that the foreign affairs department of the Irish government will have their own figures but are simply reluctant to release them for fear of freaking out Unionists.

Yes I have read the report. Now you answer my questions

ďguessesĒ and ďimaginesĒ donít amount to answers though.

I donít have a problems with assumptions in a forward looking document. But making contradictory assumptions to suit a particular point of view is not serious academic research. And that is a huge flaw in this document

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6401 on: February 07, 2019, 08:47:04 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

What do you want labour to do?

To campaign for a second vote and then for remain in that poll would be electoral suicide. They would lose the north of England and probably Wales, split the party and fail to agree a manifesto.

To campaign for no deal is not on the cards.

To facilitate stumbling into a no deal scenario splits the party


Something akin to their current proposal is Labourís best bet

Eamonnca1

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6402 on: February 07, 2019, 08:49:54 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

Kidder81

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6403 on: February 07, 2019, 08:56:35 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

+1

LCohen

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6404 on: February 07, 2019, 08:56:47 PM »
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

Of Labour 60 top target seats 60 voted to leave.

I voted to stay and as disappointed am as anyone at where we are but we cannot lay it at Jezzaís door
« Last Edit: February 07, 2019, 09:09:53 PM by LCohen »