Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 340146 times)

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4680 on: October 16, 2018, 02:28:24 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/16/brexit-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-eu-says-no-deal-more-likely-than-ever-before-politics-live

[May] said we have made progress on a huge number of issues in the negotiations but there remain sticking points in two key areas. The PM said it is not possible for her or any UK prime minister to sign up to an agreement that would lead to a customs border down the Irish Sea. She said we also need to ensure that we do not have a situation where the UK can be kept indefinitely in the backstop against our will ...
The cabinet strongly supported the prime minister over the importance of maintaining the integrity of the union. The cabinet also agreed that we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in the backstop arrangement indefinitely.
The PM said there will no doubt be challenging moments ahead. That is in the nature of negotiations. She said she is committed to securing a Brexit that delivers on the referendum result, safeguards jobs and security and which preserves our union.
 

lisa o'carroll @lisaocarroll



1/ Irish ambassador to the UK accuses Theresa May of "backsliding" on her firm commitment last December to include a backstop solution in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Told British Academy it was "very concerning" to hear some say a backstop was not necessary.
Replying to @lisaocarroll
2/ Adrian O'Neill said it was a "self-serving argument" of Brexiters to say Backstop was "an irrelevant distraction
hindering the achievement of a clean break Brexit and
frustrating the achievement of the grand vision of a
free-trading Global Britain"
3/" Such arguments are of course entirely self-serving
intended to minimise or entirely dismiss the need for a
robust solution to the border problem."
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WT4E

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4681 on: October 16, 2018, 02:44:15 PM »
Is it not the case that if the proposed deal went through against the wishes of the DUP that the North would be come one of the best places in the world to do business?

And in turn then this could turn middle of the road nationalists to vote to stay in UK in a unity poll cause of the economic advantages?

Or am I reading it wrong?
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 02:45:49 PM by WT4E »

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4682 on: October 16, 2018, 02:47:40 PM »
I just cannot see how it's possible at this point in time how a soft-Brexit / maintaining free trade, customs union event can be carried. Too much opposition on all sides to it.


Too much opposition, yet all recent polls in Britain show a (narrow) majority in favour of remaining in the EU and another 10% would be happy to leave and have a Norway deal.
The majority want this, why does the political system not deliver it?
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

imtommygunn

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4683 on: October 16, 2018, 02:50:08 PM »
There are too many games going on between May trying to prove she is strong, Boris making a play for leadership and then that muppet Foster wading in too.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4684 on: October 16, 2018, 02:52:28 PM »
I just cannot see how it's possible at this point in time how a soft-Brexit / maintaining free trade, customs union event can be carried. Too much opposition on all sides to it.


Too much opposition, yet all recent polls in Britain show a (narrow) majority in favour of remaining in the EU and another 10% would be happy to leave and have a Norway deal.
The majority want this, why does the political system not deliver it?
2 dogs in the manger. The Tories failed to win a majority and are dependent on the far right Brexit heads plus the DUP for a majority.
The party whip system is also relevant. There are enough votes between Tory remainers and Labour to prevent a no deal scenario
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Smokin Joe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4685 on: October 17, 2018, 06:51:46 AM »
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

omaghjoe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4686 on: October 17, 2018, 07:15:20 AM »
I seem to remember sterling strengthening after polls closed on brexit night too (apparently on the back of some private poll conducted by the financial instituions)....only to start plummeting as the results started to seep thru.

Not to mention the elephant in the room even if May has done a deal..... how the feck is it going to get voted thru?? I don't see enuff Labour numbers going for anything less than Norway and theres no way the brexiteers group will support anything less than Canada..

Smokin Joe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4687 on: October 17, 2018, 07:49:31 AM »
and theres no way the brexiteers group will support anything less than Canada..

I guess that's where we disagree.  When it comes down to it I don't think any of the ERG will want a "No Deal" Brexit (and all that it ensues) pinned on them; despite their current rhetoric.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4688 on: October 17, 2018, 08:44:03 AM »
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

Markets can't price asymmetric stuff like Brexit.
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bennydorano

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4689 on: October 17, 2018, 09:33:38 AM »
I would have thought it's one part of Brexit that would be pretty straightforward to predict - no deal will likely cause parity with the and a good deal for the UK will see Sterling head back to 1.20 during 2019.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4690 on: October 17, 2018, 09:39:14 AM »
I would have thought it's one part of Brexit that would be pretty straightforward to predict - no deal will likely cause parity with the and a good deal for the UK will see Sterling head back to 1.20 during 2019.
You would have to assign probabilities to each outcome.
They can't - they got Trump 2016 and brexit 2016 very wrong as well
One reason is because the market is a herd and herds need simplicity to function.
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4691 on: October 17, 2018, 09:56:57 AM »
The ball is still in play, talk of people asking for an extension now, so Sterling is holding up.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

mouview

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4692 on: October 17, 2018, 10:04:08 AM »
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

This supposes that Big Business knows more about the Brexit negotiations than the politicians involved. Brexit is not logical, pragmatic or cognizant of commercial concerns. It is as much an emotional and narrow cultural movement where hard Brexiteers / ERG / DUP are intent on leaving the EU at all costs and to hell with any consequences. It has been said of them that it's better to reign in hell than serve in heaven. Or "f**k business" :- Boris Johnson.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4693 on: October 17, 2018, 10:14:59 AM »
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

This supposes that Big Business knows more about the Brexit negotiations than the politicians involved. Brexit is not logical, pragmatic or cognizant of commercial concerns. It is as much an emotional and narrow cultural movement where hard Brexiteers / ERG / DUP are intent on leaving the EU at all costs and to hell with any consequences. It has been said of them that it's better to reign in hell than serve in heaven. Or "f**k business" :- Boris Johnson.
Brexit is economic though. It is neo Victorian. Strip out environmental protection and workers rights so the rich get richer. They haven't mentioned workhouses but I bet the ESG is working on a white paper
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seafoid

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