Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 375099 times)

trailer

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4605 on: October 11, 2018, 02:26:32 PM »
Any chance Corbyn could topple the Tories, take power in a GE, back a new referendum, win it and take up the old mantle of the British in the EU.

If he pulled it off he’d have some serious political capital to spend both with an EU who’d owe him for overturning Brexit and at home where he’d have successfully trumped two major plebisciles and cemented a avid leftist voter base for overturning Brexit.

Corbyn hates the EU more than some of the Tories. Corbyn isn't going to reverse Brexit.

People need to get real here. There's a lot of posturing by everyone, EU, DUP, Brexiters in the Tory party. However, Brexit is happening and will happen. What we're realistically hoping for is a Brexit that's "not to bad". Lets get real here. This is happening, it's unlikely a leadership challenge will happen in the Tory party and it's even more unlikely there will be a GE. There simply isn't time being one of the main reasons. We can hope for a softening of positions all round in the next few weeks and that we don't come out of this too badly.


johnnycool

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4606 on: October 11, 2018, 02:41:13 PM »
I'd say the DUP and the hardline Brexiteers are in cahoots on this one.

Making life difficult for May on the budget could possibly push the Tories into a leadership battle and I honestly believe that the DUP think Boris or Fox are more aligned to their rationale than May.

Hardline Brexiteers can then blame the DUP for Mays departure with clean hands as they set about f**king up Brexit with a no deal scenario.

Fair point, but the DUP will know that the hard line Brexiteers will use them to advance their own cause of overthrowing May but these hardline Brexiteers are still no less likely to throw the DUP under a bus than the present government are.


Hardline Brexiteers want totally out of everything EU, customs union, regularity alignment, EU courts of Human Rights and so forth meaning a frontier on the island of Ireland which ultimately is what the DUP would be happy enough to settle for irrespective of economical consequences as we're going to be the same as Finchley, remember.


tiempo

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4607 on: October 11, 2018, 02:42:42 PM »
Any chance Corbyn could topple the Tories, take power in a GE, back a new referendum, win it and take up the old mantle of the British in the EU.

If he pulled it off he’d have some serious political capital to spend both with an EU who’d owe him for overturning Brexit and at home where he’d have successfully trumped two major plebisciles and cemented a avid leftist voter base for overturning Brexit.

Yes and no.

Yes he could win an election but he's not a Europhile and would quite happily negotiate Brexit but on much softer terms including those extremely favourable to the Frankeistein statelet (which the DUP don't want!). I'm sure he could also be pursuaded to hold Brexit 2 and if it was remain he'd happily go with it.

bennydorano

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4608 on: October 11, 2018, 02:43:02 PM »
May's biggest problem will be getting it through Parliament, there will be a Brexit deal - it will please no one and I don't see where she gets the support from to get it passed.

It's like the wild west in Politics at the minute and nothing can be taken for granted, the right wing Brexit Mps will collapse it in a heartbeat, another GE doesn't matter in this chaos.




Smokin Joe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4609 on: October 11, 2018, 07:33:34 PM »
I can't believe how little the media is freaking out about Brexit.  Even if we get agreement on a deal that gives us the transition period there will lots of upheaval for exporting companies in the UK.

Take one example of a company exporting something to Korea.  That company is currently exporting as part of the EU (on the tariffs and market access that the EU gives them).
In the event of a Deal the company can still ship to the EU as everything will continue on as is for the next 2 years.

But even if there is a Deal the UK leaves the EU on 29th March next year.  The fact that the UK and the EU has arranged a transition agreement does not mean that Korea has done so.
As far as Korea (and the rest of the world) is concerned the UK is no longer in the EU (as legally we will have left). So in order for the company to get the same market access as they do today Korea will have to make changes to its legislation / guidance to read "EU and UK" where it used to say "EU".

I'd imagine that Korea has a lot more high priority areas to legislate on that this, so when will these changes be made?  We've only got 5 months until this happens.
And then all the other third countries who we trade with as part of the EU will also need to make the same changes.

How long will this take to do?

And that's in the event that we get a Deal and have a transition arrangement with the EU.  Imagine if the UK doesn't, there'll be economic carnage as so many things are entangled with the EU.

(The above excludes any backstop arrangement for NI as it's too hard to work out what that will be like, but as a minimum, it'll be the case for the rest of the UK).

I can't understand why this isn't being shouted from the rooftops by more people.  The House of Commons knew about this last February (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf), but we don't seem to be any further forward in this regard.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 07:40:24 PM by Smokin Joe »

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4610 on: October 11, 2018, 07:47:31 PM »
Ahhh all will be grand once they have blue passports  ::)
2018- 2 Cupeens won, 2 to go.

Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4611 on: October 11, 2018, 08:45:31 PM »
I can't believe how little the media is freaking out about Brexit.  Even if we get agreement on a deal that gives us the transition period there will lots of upheaval for exporting companies in the UK.

Take one example of a company exporting something to Korea.  That company is currently exporting as part of the EU (on the tariffs and market access that the EU gives them).
In the event of a Deal the company can still ship to the EU as everything will continue on as is for the next 2 years.

But even if there is a Deal the UK leaves the EU on 29th March next year.  The fact that the UK and the EU has arranged a transition agreement does not mean that Korea has done so.
As far as Korea (and the rest of the world) is concerned the UK is no longer in the EU (as legally we will have left). So in order for the company to get the same market access as they do today Korea will have to make changes to its legislation / guidance to read "EU and UK" where it used to say "EU".

I'd imagine that Korea has a lot more high priority areas to legislate on that this, so when will these changes be made?  We've only got 5 months until this happens.
And then all the other third countries who we trade with as part of the EU will also need to make the same changes.

How long will this take to do?

And that's in the event that we get a Deal and have a transition arrangement with the EU.  Imagine if the UK doesn't, there'll be economic carnage as so many things are entangled with the EU.

(The above excludes any backstop arrangement for NI as it's too hard to work out what that will be like, but as a minimum, it'll be the case for the rest of the UK).

I can't understand why this isn't being shouted from the rooftops by more people.  The House of Commons knew about this last February (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf), but we don't seem to be any further forward in this regard.


That's all spot on, Joe.

I have my own, "I can't believe how little attention this has got ..."

Almost four out of five Northern Ireland Leavers put Brexit above peace process.

80%! Yes, 80% of (effectively) the DUP would be prepared to return to the troubles if it meant getting their Brexit, which itself will ruin their economy and hasten the United Ireland they think they would be preventing. This, more than anything I've seen in a long time, shows up the dangerously and vindictively stupid b**tards we're dealing with here.

imtommygunn

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4612 on: October 11, 2018, 09:09:36 PM »
There is nothing economic in anything the dup say. Bitter bigots who want to drive every wedge they can between the north and the south. Not one crap could they give about a peace process.

marty34

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4613 on: October 11, 2018, 09:19:40 PM »
I think it was Nelson Mc C of the DUP said "I wouldn't care what sort of situation I face as long as I'm out of Europe".

This was Feb 2017.

That tells us everything.

Smokin Joe

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4614 on: October 11, 2018, 09:28:42 PM »
I can't believe that the farming community aren't giving the DUP hell around their stance.

Northern Irish agri / dairy is sold on the basis of us maintaining EC standards.  After next March how do the third countries update their required standards to say that UK standards are acceptable?  Will they need to be tested / audited? And if so, how long will that take?
What happens before those standards are changed?

In terms of other sectors effected:

In the material handling sector (a sector where NI, and specifically Tyrone lead the world) the equipment tends to confirm with the EC Machinery Directive, and is CE marked accordingly.  The body that is attesting that the equipment applies to the CE standard needs to be based in the EU.  This will really complicate things for the manufacturing sector.

The aerospace industry is very tightly regulated and is governed by the European Aviation and Safety Agency (EASA).  Again will UK manufacturers be able to supply parts to be used in planes as they will be outside of EASA?




seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4615 on: October 11, 2018, 09:45:31 PM »
I can't believe that the farming community aren't giving the DUP hell around their stance.

Northern Irish agri / dairy is sold on the basis of us maintaining EC standards.  After next March how do the third countries update their required standards to say that UK standards are acceptable?  Will they need to be tested / audited? And if so, how long will that take?
What happens before those standards are changed?

In terms of other sectors effected:

In the material handling sector (a sector where NI, and specifically Tyrone lead the world) the equipment tends to confirm with the EC Machinery Directive, and is CE marked accordingly.  The body that is attesting that the equipment applies to the CE standard needs to be based in the EU.  This will really complicate things for the manufacturing sector.

The aerospace industry is very tightly regulated and is governed by the European Aviation and Safety Agency (EASA).  Again will UK manufacturers be able to supply parts to be used in planes as they will be outside of EASA?
Great post. The DUP is not behaving rationally.
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armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4616 on: October 11, 2018, 10:35:36 PM »
I can't believe that the farming community aren't giving the DUP hell around their stance.

Northern Irish agri / dairy is sold on the basis of us maintaining EC standards.  After next March how do the third countries update their required standards to say that UK standards are acceptable?  Will they need to be tested / audited? And if so, how long will that take?
What happens before those standards are changed?

Some of these people think they'll have an  advantage in the English market.

But the point is still valid, there is very little discussion as the meteorite approaches.  No protests in support of the GFA, no 1000 truck protests.
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trailer

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4617 on: October 11, 2018, 10:48:16 PM »
I can't believe that the farming community aren't giving the DUP hell around their stance.

Northern Irish agri / dairy is sold on the basis of us maintaining EC standards.  After next March how do the third countries update their required standards to say that UK standards are acceptable?  Will they need to be tested / audited? And if so, how long will that take?
What happens before those standards are changed?

In terms of other sectors effected:

In the material handling sector (a sector where NI, and specifically Tyrone lead the world) the equipment tends to confirm with the EC Machinery Directive, and is CE marked accordingly.  The body that is attesting that the equipment applies to the CE standard needs to be based in the EU.  This will really complicate things for the manufacturing sector.

The aerospace industry is very tightly regulated and is governed by the European Aviation and Safety Agency (EASA).  Again will UK manufacturers be able to supply parts to be used in planes as they will be outside of EASA?

Dairy farmers nearly all to a man voted leave. Red tape, being told what to do and when to do it by Brussels being the main reasons. And you know what? They are dead right. Regardless of what happens the UK government will support them. So for the farming sector there is probably no downside.
Personally I'd love to see the bundle of hungry c***ts being put on the side of the road, but that's unlikely.

Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4618 on: October 12, 2018, 12:27:33 AM »
What an extraordinary opinion.

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #4619 on: October 12, 2018, 06:21:57 AM »
Torygraph

« The Prime Minister told her Brexit “war Cabinet” Thursday afternoon that a proposal to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU until a trade deal can be agreed will have no end date, leading to fears the arrangement could become permanent. »

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