Various bits. There will be no positives
Martin Wolf, FT @SpeakingUp I strongly agree. The Leavers persuaded the British people to support them on a fraudulent basis. They also had (and have) no plan for leaving. That is worse than merely fraudulent. It is grotesquely irresponsible. The fact that this was the case was pointed out by many commentators (including me). The government is not to blame for not having a plan for Brexit, since there simply is no sensible plan for Brexit. Whatever the government does, it is going to be a terrible mess. The government is instead to blame for holding the idiotic referendum in the first place. Competent governments do not present the option of a national disaster before the electorate
#He has long seen Britain leaving the EU single market and customs union as the most likely Brexit scenario, and believed the biggest remaining question was whether this outcome would be achieved through an orderly and managed transition or via a sharp exit with no withdrawal agreement with the EU.
#So the government is not able to make the notification, has no real idea what it is ultimately seeking and does not have the full attention of those with whom it needs to negotiate in a limited period. On these objective bases, one would say that a rational view is that an Article 50 notification remains less likely than likely in two months’ time.
#That leverage is strengthened by another cold calculation in Paris, Brussels and Berlin: the longer Britain waits for a transition deal to be discussed and agreed, the more likely businesses will decide to move or shift investment away from the UK. For the EU-27, late agreement on transition would maximise relocation while still avoiding a “cliff edge” — sudden and disruptive change for businesses stemming from a sudden exit.
#But Mr Davis also sees the transition as leverage. A hard exit would cut off corporate Europe from its main financial centre, the City of London. Highly integrated cross-border supply chains for carmaking or aeronautics would be badly disrupted. That would carry costs for all sides — if Britain was willing to walk away from the table.
#9.1 Analysts said political discord over the UK’s Brexit strategy would weigh on sterling even though economic data were proving resilient.
“Until the government finally presents a concrete and convincing strategy, market participants will increasingly fear a disaster,” said Esther Reichelt at Commerzbank.
#Brexit poses a risk to the global financial system and could spark more than 230,000 job losses in the financial sector, senior City figures have warned MPs as they called for clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
