SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.
There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.
I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.
Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.
In a Unionist dominant area like Strangford I can see the UUP take a seat off the DUP if they get their finger out.
Alliance will hold their seat but won't have enough to get two.
Unfortunately going down to 5 seats means any outside chance of a nationalist seat here has gone. Good news though the boundary changes next time gets rid of alot of these very unionist areas same for west belfast meaning most people will get some sort of representation
In Strangford you'd think Nesbitt, Hamilton, McIlveen and Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) will be safe enough. Will Bell run, is the big question?? If he doesn't you might see someone like Jimmy Menagh benefit.
With Sinn Feín non existent in the area means that the DUP main thrust of keeping the Shinners out mightn't have the same impact on a local level and Nesbitt needs a strong running partner to break DUP majority.
Whether Bell stands could have a bearing alright, depending on what creed of christian he is and their "fanbase" in the constituency to cause an upset outside the DUP party apparatus is another thing ala Jim Allister in NA.
Those religious types down here can be a funny crew at times.
Alliance ala Kelly Armstrong may also be in a bit of a tighter fight than she ought to be due to a local dispute wrt provision of a "cross community" full size floodlit 3G pitch which the DUP and UUP were trying to railroad into the lovely fishing village of Portavogie. The Alliance and SDLP are getting the blame for it not going ahead there as there was nothing in the application in relation to support for Gaelic games which is a requirement and the funding body pulled the plug which both are supposed to have highlighted.
Just goes to show you the f**kers seem to think they can ride roughshod over legislation at local government level as well as Stormont