Author Topic: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017  (Read 2076 times)

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #60 on: Today at 02:26:13 PM »
SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.

There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.

I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.

Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.

In a Unionist dominant area like Strangford I can see the UUP take a seat off the DUP if they get their finger out.

Alliance will hold their seat but won't have enough to get two.
 

Unfortunately going down to 5 seats means any outside chance of a nationalist seat here has gone. Good news though the boundary changes next time gets rid of alot of these very unionist areas same for west belfast meaning most people will get some sort of representation

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #61 on: Today at 02:32:29 PM »
SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.

There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.

I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.

Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.

In a Unionist dominant area like Strangford I can see the UUP take a seat off the DUP if they get their finger out.

Alliance will hold their seat but won't have enough to get two.
 

Unfortunately going down to 5 seats means any outside chance of a nationalist seat here has gone. Good news though the boundary changes next time gets rid of alot of these very unionist areas same for west belfast meaning most people will get some sort of representation

In Strangford you'd think Nesbitt, Hamilton, McIlveen and Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) will be safe enough.  Will Bell run, is the big question??  If he doesn't you might see someone like Jimmy Menagh benefit.

Take Your Points

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #62 on: Today at 02:33:24 PM »
60,000 voters removed from the register in December 2016

Voters removed by constituency
Belfast East 2,379
Belfast North 4,463
Belfast South 3,213
Belfast West 5,759
East Antrim 2,323
East Londonderry 2,651
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 3,014
Foyle 4,912
Lagan Valley 2,554
Mid Ulster 3,145
North Antrim 2,795
North Down 2,310
Newry & Armagh 4,534
South Antrim 2,997
South Down 4,012
Strangford 2,449
Upper Bann 3,451
West Tyrone 3,472

All these are significant numbers but maybe people who don't keep themselves on the register don't vote.  Could have an effect when the number of MLAs are being reduced.

On what basis are they removed and can you check if you're on the register??

The only way to check is to contact your local electoral office, there is no online register.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38652276

johnneycool

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #63 on: Today at 02:53:10 PM »
SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.

There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.

I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.

Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.

In a Unionist dominant area like Strangford I can see the UUP take a seat off the DUP if they get their finger out.

Alliance will hold their seat but won't have enough to get two.
 

Unfortunately going down to 5 seats means any outside chance of a nationalist seat here has gone. Good news though the boundary changes next time gets rid of alot of these very unionist areas same for west belfast meaning most people will get some sort of representation

In Strangford you'd think Nesbitt, Hamilton, McIlveen and Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) will be safe enough.  Will Bell run, is the big question??  If he doesn't you might see someone like Jimmy Menagh benefit.

With Sinn Feín non existent in the area means that the DUP main thrust of keeping the Shinners out mightn't have the same impact on a local level and Nesbitt needs a strong running partner to break DUP majority.

Whether Bell stands could have a bearing alright, depending on what creed of christian he is and their "fanbase" in the constituency to cause an upset outside the DUP party apparatus is another thing ala Jim Allister in NA.

Those religious types down here can be a funny crew at times.

Alliance ala Kelly Armstrong may also be in a bit of a tighter fight than she ought to be due to a local dispute wrt provision of a "cross community" full size floodlit 3G pitch which the DUP and UUP were trying to railroad into the lovely fishing village of Portavogie. The Alliance and SDLP are getting the blame for it not going ahead there as there was nothing in the application in relation to support for Gaelic games which is a requirement and the funding body pulled the plug which both are supposed to have highlighted.
Just goes to show you the f**kers seem to think they can ride roughshod over legislation at local government level as well as Stormont

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #64 on: Today at 02:58:46 PM »
Bell is a "Free Methodist" whatever the f**k that is.  It sounds fundamentalist and thus he might attract a few Free P's if he runs.  Michelle McIlveen is a Free P but I think Simon Hamilton is Church of Ireland.

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #65 on: Today at 04:20:56 PM »
People Before Profit to run a second candidate in West Belfast.  Could be final nail in coffin for Alex Attwood??

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #66 on: Today at 04:26:57 PM »
People Before Profit to run a second candidate in West Belfast.  Could be final nail in coffin for Alex Attwood??

If they came to my door I would hammer them on designation and brexit. Im no SF fan but these guys are a bunch of spoofers.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #67 on: Today at 04:59:30 PM »
People Before Profit to run a second candidate in West Belfast.  Could be final nail in coffin for Alex Attwood??

If they came to my door I would hammer them on designation and brexit. Im no SF fan but these guys are a bunch of spoofers.

Have to say although I have a soft spot for Eamon McCann, since he got elected he has been almost anonymous

stiffler

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #68 on: Today at 05:23:51 PM »
Well folks, drew up my prediction for March 2nd election:

Election 2017 predictions

Fermanagh South Tyrone: 2DUP 2SF 1UUP
Newry\Armagh: 2SF 1DUP 1UUP 1SDLP
W Belfast: 4SF 1PBP
S Belfast: 2DUP 1SDLP 1SF 1AP
N Belfast: 3DUP 2SF
E Belfast: 3DUP 2AP
North Down: 2DUP 1GP 1UUP 1AP
Stangford: 3DUP 1UUP 1AP
South Down: 2SDLP 2SF 1DUP
Upper Bann: 2DUP 2UUP 1SF
Lagan Valley: 3DUP 1AP 1UUP
South Antrim: 3DUP 1SF 1UUP
East Antrim: 3DUP 1UUP 1AP
North Antrim: 3DUP 1TUV 1SF
Mid Ulster: 3SF 1SDLP 1DUP
East Derry: 3DUP 1SF 1IND
Foyle: 2SDLP 2SF 1DUP
West Tyrone: 3SF 1DUP 1SDLP

DUP: 37
SF: 25
UUP: 9
SDLP: 8
AP: 7
GP: 1
TUV: 1
PBP: 1
IND: 1

Don't think the scandals will effect the DUPs performance  as unionists will stick by the DUP regardless but again I could be wrong. Some seats will be very tight for the last remaining seat, transfers will be very important this time around.

Would upper bann not have a large enough nationalist population to return 2 nationalist seats?

I suppose a lot will do with transfers.
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