Now no economic whatsover reason to maintain partition

[ziggysego]

I would say that Martin Mc Guinness isnt far off the mark with his 1916 forecast.

Don't you mean 2016? 

[brokencrossbar1]

Tony, I said before Christmas in one of the many circular arguments on here that there will be a notional handover in 2016 politics is all about symbolism and image.  I do not stray from that belief. 

I know that Sammy has stated about the consent principle and that there will be no referendum.  I do not disagree with that either.  I fully believe there will be an economic re-unification over the next ten years which will de facto create a united Ireland.  The notional border will remain but by that stage both sides of the border will be using the Euro, both will have a unilateral tax system and both will have simialr education and health systems.

I do not think that it will be called a unitied Ireland, as many Unionists would find that difficult, but there could be some compromise whereby Northern Ireland would retain a seperate description within the legal title of the country, who knows maybe something like the Republic of Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Ten years ago who would have believed that the IRA would have commissioned their weapons and the DUP and SF would be going into Government together.  If that can happen in ten years, who can tell what could happen in the next ten years.

[nifan]

If the economy in the ROI was to go into recession would those using the stronger economy change their stance?

[Star Spangler]

[GweylTah]

Why would they "almost certainly" have to join the commonwealth?

Again, not being smart here, I'm genuinely interested in where that came from.

It just would and you would just have to accept it cos thats the way it is (to use the GAA's Spokesman for Assimilation of Foreign Games words).  

With regard to NATO, the Americans and possibly the Brits might well insist on it, and any Irish Government would keep holding referenda until the right result was achieved (as happened before).

Anyway, would it not be better to be part of NATO rather than this pretend neutrality business which is always being flouted?

[Star Spangler]

Is the Commonwealth not only for 3rd World countries? 

[SammyG]

Is the Commonwealth not only for 3rd World countries? 

So the RoI would fit right in. 

[his holiness nb]

"It just would and you would just have to accept it cos thats the way it is"

Well if you put it like that 

"Anyway, would it not be better to be part of NATO rather than this pretend neutrality business which is always being flouted?"

Jesus, can you not open one can of worms at a time Gweltyah? 

[brokencrossbar1]

nifan, this may be a consideration, if the gloom merchants are to be believed.  Personally, although there is a slight change in circumstances down here at the minute, it is not recession times yet.  There is a dip in the property market but that is more of a correction back to a sustainable level than the extraordinary level that had been existing for a number of years.  House prices will continue to grow, just at a much slower rate and employment will still operate at a high level.

In any event any likely recession will have an effect both sides of the border, so it is not as if it is onfined to one geographical(albeit man made) area.

[GweylTah]

In any event any likely recession will have an effect both sides of the border, so it is not as if it is onfined to one geographical(albeit man made) area.

What does that mean - the border? Most borders are 'man-made'. Does one island have to be a unitary political entity, is that the rule/law?

[ziggysego]

Does one island have to be a unitary political entity, is that the rule/law?

Does on island have to be partitioned. It that the rule/law?

[T Fearon]

I think the union officially ended when Paddy Mayhew declared the Brits had no strategic or selfish interest in the 6 counties, in 1993 (in otherwords get us out quick!), we are currently experiencing the longest burial in history.

I suspect with the recent actions of Paisley and Empey, that even they know the game is up, and the future of them and their people would be much brighter in a united Ireland.

My own view (endorsed by yesterday's seminar) is that there will be no additional handouts from London, in which case the new executive will find it impossible to compete with the 26 counties, and in a few years down the line everyone with a titter of wit will realise what a letter writer recently stated in the Irish News "the union is the road to nowhere"

[brokencrossbar1]

nifan referred to the recession as being solely in ROI, I was simply pointing out that in such a small area, with a recently imposed artificial border, the recession is not going to come to the Gap of the North and suddenly say "well fcuk, that's Northern Ireland, i can't go in there"

Tony, there will be the final payment from Brown and Bertie over the year and that will be that.  The north will not be economically viable as an entity on its own and therefore will have no option but to integrate.

[nifan]

nifan, this may be a consideration, if the gloom merchants are to be believed.  Personally, although there is a slight change in circumstances down here at the minute, it is not recession times yet.  There is a dip in the property market but that is more of a correction back to a sustainable level than the extraordinary level that had been existing for a number of years.  House prices will continue to grow, just at a much slower rate and employment will still operate at a high level.

In any event any likely recession will have an effect both sides of the border, so it is not as if it is onfined to one geographical(albeit man made) area.

I hope it doesnt bust - i own a house down there

[T Fearon]

For what its worth, the Chief Economist yesterday said that Housing Prices in the 26 counties will stay steady but those in the North have another two years of significant rises ahead at which point they will tail off as well.

Best news of all was his view that there will be one,and only one, further interest rate rise in sterling this year