Now no economic whatsover reason to maintain partition

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

A very good, topical, thread from a few years ago.  Funny how the lie of the land has changed economically since then...

Yipe all those economic assumptions lie in tatters, did anyone really think an economy could just keep on booming without the bust 

Delboy, the north still has the real shit to face next year when the Civil service/public sector starts trimming the fat!
Think both the north and Britain still have 12 more months of serious hardship facing them, God willing the south has suffered the worst of the hardship and will spend the next 12 months starting to lick wounds and recuperate, building slowly.

[Caid]

A very good, topical, thread from a few years ago.  Funny how the lie of the land has changed economically since then...

Yipe all those economic assumptions lie in tatters, did anyone really think an economy could just keep on booming without the bust 

Delboy, the north still has the real shit to face next year when the Civil service/public sector starts trimming the fat!
Think both the north and Britain still have 12 more months of serious hardship facing them, God willing the south has suffered the worst of the hardship and will spend the next 12 months starting to lick wounds and recuperate, building slowly.

I was looking at houses in the South Meath area yesterday and they still seem really overpriced.  But then I guess I am working in my head off a EUR1 = GBP0.9 instead of a few years ago where it was more like EUR1 = GBP0.66. 

The biggest step now to achieving a United Ireland may be the UK joining the Euro (which is quite a way of yet).

[delboy]

A very good, topical, thread from a few years ago.  Funny how the lie of the land has changed economically since then...

Yipe all those economic assumptions lie in tatters, did anyone really think an economy could just keep on booming without the bust 

Delboy, the north still has the real shit to face next year when the Civil service/public sector starts trimming the fat!
Think both the north and Britain still have 12 more months of serious hardship facing them, God willing the south has suffered the worst of the hardship and will spend the next 12 months starting to lick wounds and recuperate, building slowly.

It'll be interesting to see how many jobs go, i've heard from a few people in the CS that people aren't/won't be getting the sack but that those that leave be it retiring or moving to a new job aren't being replaced. Of course if the tories get in then it could be a differnent story, we might have to take our medicine quicker.
I personally think that the UK as a whole will be in the same same wound licking, recuperating stage.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

A very good, topical, thread from a few years ago.  Funny how the lie of the land has changed economically since then...

Yipe all those economic assumptions lie in tatters, did anyone really think an economy could just keep on booming without the bust 

Delboy, the north still has the real shit to face next year when the Civil service/public sector starts trimming the fat!
Think both the north and Britain still have 12 more months of serious hardship facing them, God willing the south has suffered the worst of the hardship and will spend the next 12 months starting to lick wounds and recuperate, building slowly.

It'll be interesting to see how many jobs go, i've heard from a few people in the CS that people aren't/won't be getting the sack but that those that leave be it retiring or moving to a new job aren't being replaced. Of course if the tories get in then it could be a differnent story, we might have to take our medicine quicker.
I personally think that the UK as a whole will be in the same same wound licking, recuperating stage.

Do you not think that Brown and Co have gone on a borrowing frenzy?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6603482/UK-borrowing-figures-expected-to-highlight-fiscal-woes.html

Plus sterling falling through the floor against other currencies.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6693162/Morgan-Stanley-fears-UK-sovereign-debt-crisis-in-2010.html

Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010

Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 4:09PM GMT 30 Nov 2009

Morgan Stanley says if Westminster can't restore fiscal credibility it could trigger debt problems.
The US investment bank said there is a danger Britain's toxic mix of problems will come to a head as soon as next year, triggered by fears that Westminster may prove unable to restore fiscal credibility.

"Growing fears over a hung parliament would likely weigh on both the currency and gilt yields as it would represent something of a leap into the unknown, and would increase the probability that some of the rating agencies remove the UK's AAA status," said the report, written by the bank's European investment team of Ronan Carr, Teun Draaisma, and Graham Secker.


Morgan Stanley said that such a chain of events could drive up yields on 10-year UK gilts by 150 basis points. This would raise borrowing costs to well over 5pc - the sort of level now confronting Greece, and far higher than costs for Italy, Mexico, or Brazil.

High-grade debt from companies such as BP, GSK, or Tesco might command a lower risk premium than UK sovereign debt, once an unthinkable state of affairs.

A spike in bond yields would greatly complicate the task of funding Britain's budget deficit, expected to be the worst of the OECD group next year at 13.3pc of GDP.

Investors have been fretting privately for some time that the Bank might have to raise rates before it is ready -- risking a double-dip recession, and an incipient compound-debt spiral – but this the first time a major global investment house has issued such a stark warning.

No G10 country has seen its ability to provide emergency stimulus seriously constrained by outside forces since the credit crisis began. It is unclear how markets would respond if they began to question the efficacy of state power.

Morgan Stanley said sterling may fall a further 10pc in trade-weighted terms. This would complete the steepest slide in the pound since the industrial revolution, exceeding the 30pc drop from peak to trough after Britain was driven off the Gold Standard in cataclysmic circumstances in 1931.

UK equities would perform reasonably well. Some 65pc of earnings from FTSE companies come from overseas, so they would enjoy a currency windfall gain.

While the report – "Tougher Times in 2010" – is not linked to the Dubai debacle, it is a reminder that countries merely bought time during the crisis by resorting to fiscal stimulus and shunting private losses onto public books. The rescues – though necessary – have not resolved the underlying debt problem. They have storied up a second set of difficulties by degrading sovereign debt across much of the world.

Morgan Stanley said Britain's travails are one of three "surprises" to expect in 2010. The other two are a dollar rebound, and strong performance by pharmaceutical stocks.

David Buik, from BGC Partners, said Britain is in particularly bad shape because the tax-take is highly leveraged to the global economic cycle: financial services provided 27pc of revenue in the boom, but has since collapsed.

The UK failed to put aside money in the fat years to offset this time-honoured fiscal cycle. It ran a budget deficit of 3pc of GPD at the peak of the boom when prudent countries such as Finland and even Spain were running a surplus of over 2pc.

"We need to raise VAT to 20pc and make seriously dramatic cuts in services that go beyond anything that Alistair Darling or David Cameron are talking about. Nobody seems to have the courage to face up to this," said Mr Buik.

The report coincided with news that Britain is now officially the only G20 country still to be in recession. Canada reported that its economy grew by 0.1pc in the third quarter. Britain, by contrast, shrank by 0.3pc, the latest estimates show.

[armaghniac]

"We need to raise VAT to 20pc and make seriously dramatic cuts in services that go beyond anything that Alistair Darling or David Cameron are talking about. Nobody seems to have the courage to face up to this," said Mr Buik

This one would play well in Dundalk.

[Maguire01]

Interesting that when this was posted, the idea of the banks and their "chief economists" supporting a united Ireland, at least in the economic sense, was put forward as giving the argument some credibility.

[delboy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6693162/Morgan-Stanley-fears-UK-sovereign-debt-crisis-in-2010.html

Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010

Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 4:09PM GMT 30 Nov 2009

Morgan Stanley says if Westminster can't restore fiscal credibility it could trigger debt problems.
The US investment bank said there is a danger Britain's toxic mix of problems will come to a head as soon as next year, triggered by fears that Westminster may prove unable to restore fiscal credibility.

"Growing fears over a hung parliament would likely weigh on both the currency and gilt yields as it would represent something of a leap into the unknown, and would increase the probability that some of the rating agencies remove the UK's AAA status," said the report, written by the bank's European investment team of Ronan Carr, Teun Draaisma, and Graham Secker.


Morgan Stanley said that such a chain of events could drive up yields on 10-year UK gilts by 150 basis points. This would raise borrowing costs to well over 5pc - the sort of level now confronting Greece, and far higher than costs for Italy, Mexico, or Brazil.

High-grade debt from companies such as BP, GSK, or Tesco might command a lower risk premium than UK sovereign debt, once an unthinkable state of affairs.

A spike in bond yields would greatly complicate the task of funding Britain's budget deficit, expected to be the worst of the OECD group next year at 13.3pc of GDP.

Investors have been fretting privately for some time that the Bank might have to raise rates before it is ready -- risking a double-dip recession, and an incipient compound-debt spiral – but this the first time a major global investment house has issued such a stark warning.

No G10 country has seen its ability to provide emergency stimulus seriously constrained by outside forces since the credit crisis began. It is unclear how markets would respond if they began to question the efficacy of state power.

Morgan Stanley said sterling may fall a further 10pc in trade-weighted terms. This would complete the steepest slide in the pound since the industrial revolution, exceeding the 30pc drop from peak to trough after Britain was driven off the Gold Standard in cataclysmic circumstances in 1931.

UK equities would perform reasonably well. Some 65pc of earnings from FTSE companies come from overseas, so they would enjoy a currency windfall gain.

While the report – "Tougher Times in 2010" – is not linked to the Dubai debacle, it is a reminder that countries merely bought time during the crisis by resorting to fiscal stimulus and shunting private losses onto public books. The rescues – though necessary – have not resolved the underlying debt problem. They have storied up a second set of difficulties by degrading sovereign debt across much of the world.

Morgan Stanley said Britain's travails are one of three "surprises" to expect in 2010. The other two are a dollar rebound, and strong performance by pharmaceutical stocks.

David Buik, from BGC Partners, said Britain is in particularly bad shape because the tax-take is highly leveraged to the global economic cycle: financial services provided 27pc of revenue in the boom, but has since collapsed.

The UK failed to put aside money in the fat years to offset this time-honoured fiscal cycle. It ran a budget deficit of 3pc of GPD at the peak of the boom when prudent countries such as Finland and even Spain were running a surplus of over 2pc.

"We need to raise VAT to 20pc and make seriously dramatic cuts in services that go beyond anything that Alistair Darling or David Cameron are talking about. Nobody seems to have the courage to face up to this," said Mr Buik.

The report coincided with news that Britain is now officially the only G20 country still to be in recession. Canada reported that its economy grew by 0.1pc in the third quarter. Britain, by contrast, shrank by 0.3pc, the latest estimates show.

We'll have to wait and see, i don't think the UK will go into financial meltdown, be worth revisitng this thread in a years time.

[Evil Genius]

We'll have to wait and see, i don't think the UK will go into financial meltdown, be worth revisitng this thread in a years time.

Not quite a year, but near enough.

Anyhow, all those looking for a laugh amidst the present gloom etc, might care to scroll through this thread again.

For the title of "Poster-With-Head-Stuck-Furthest-Up-His-Own-Arse", the Original Poster is an obvious, even perennial contender, especially considering his follow-up posts #26 and #29.

But for sheer "laugh-out-loud" lunacy, I think the Title in this context must go to Broken Crossbar (see post #'s 6, 16, 23 and 27) and Gaoth  Dobhair Abu (#'s 60, 63 and 64), on a Dead Heat.

As for the "How-Could-I-Possibly-Have-Got-It-So-F**king-Wrong-In-A-Single-Post-Award", here too, this couple shared the nominations:

Broken Crossbar #23: "Personally, although there is a slight change in circumstances down here at the minute, it is not recession times yet.  There is a dip in the property market but that is more of a correction back to a sustainable level than the extraordinary level that had been existing for a number of years.  House prices will continue to grow, just at a much slower rate and employment will still operate at a high level"

Goath Dobhair Abu #60: "Think both the north and Britain still have 12 more months of serious hardship facing them, God willing the south has suffered the worst of the hardship and will spend the next 12 months starting to lick wounds and recuperate, building slowly"

GDA has to be the clear winner here, since BC posted his comment in April 2007, whereas GDA's 'comedy gold was mined' as recently as 01 December, 2009!

(An honourable mention goes to Donagh, for his post #52, btw)

Finally, the "Laughs-Last Award for Perspective" goes to Nifan, for posing the following question (post #17) as far back as April 2007: If the economy in the ROI was to go into recession would those using the stronger economy change their stance?

[brokencrossbar1]

Jeez you've little to be at.  As you said when I posted what I posted it was 3 and a half years ago.  What I posted was correct at the time and to be honest was the prevailing belief among many commentators.  The world has taken a massive change since then and there is no doubt about that.

[johnneycool]

Lets not forget Cameron and the rosey cheeked lad are borrowing like blazes as well. No one is in a position to laugh at the minute.

[BallyhaiseMan]

Evil Genius
does your boss know that you have so little to do? 

[Evil Genius]

Jeez you've little to be at.  As you said when I posted what I posted it was 3 and a half years ago.  What I posted was correct at the time and to be honest was the prevailing belief among many commentators.  The world has taken a massive change since then and there is no doubt about that.

"I Was Correct at the Time" - sounds like FF's Epitaph 

Anyhow, we can all be forgiven for posting crap at one time or another.

But "taking the bait" (replying to my post) and thereby drawing more peoples' attention to your original error is priceless, just priceless. 

Late Edit: I've just re-read your post # 23 (it get's funnier every time, btw) and in it you said: "House prices will continue to grow".

Still contend that you were "correct at the time"? 

[Evil Genius]

Lets not forget Cameron and the rosey cheeked lad are borrowing like blazes as well. No one is in a position to laugh at the minute.

No doubt about that.

But the original premise of this thread was that with the Irish Republic being so much better off economically* than the UK, this would inevitably lead to Irish unification.

Now, just over three years later, whilst the UK economy has undoubtedly declined severely, that of the ROI has fallen off a cliff.

Therefore whatever else, the one small silver lining to the dark financial cloud which has settled over all of us is obvious (to Unionists, at least).

Namely, when the skies should eventually brighten again, whenever that may be, NI will be further away from a United Oireland than ever.

P.S. You refer to the UK "borrowing like blazes", which is quite correct. However, in the context of the UK's £7 bn. loan to the ROI, one interesting fact seems to be being overlooked by everyone. That is, when George Osborne decided to come up with the money, he didn't just take the Treasury's Cashcard, go to the nearest Bank Machine, and withdraw the money. Nor did he eg sell a crate of gold, or even instruct the Bank of England to crank up their presses and print more etc.
Rather, he is borrowing it from the money markets and then lending it on to Lenihan. What's more, the money will not be handed over in one big lump, instead it will be released in installments, as the Irish Government meets it new commitments to the IMF.
Finally, if Osborne is borrowing at, say, 3-4%, then you can be sure that he is lending it to the ROI at 5% or more. Which might seem a rough enough deal for the Irish, except that the UK is borrowing the money from the money markets because it can, whilst the ROI has turned to the UK because it can't.


* - At least seemed  like it, so long as you didn't take too close a look at the books.

[Evil Genius]

Evil Genius
does your boss know that you have so little to do? 

One of the (small) consolations of being self-employed is that I love my boss and he loves me.